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Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

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Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#11

Post by eesmith »

sys_64738 wrote: post #4

I know in the USA it used to be the case you couldn't get a mortgage on a modular home and had to take out a personal loan. Not sure if that changed.

Likely connected to these parts of the essay:

> They also mean the homes are financed as automobiles (with personal loans, or chattell loans) and not real estate loans. ...

> One famous program, the so called “Section 235,” provided mortgages at interest rates as low as one percent for buyers purchasing a home built on-site. Buyers of factory-built homes, in particular, manufactured-homes, were not eligible.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#13

Post by epistasis »

tmaly wrote: post #7

I would think ZIRP and backwards zoning commissions would be a bigger problem

ZIRP may change sticker prices but those are still ultimately determined by ability to make monthly payments.

The unaffordability of monthly payments is the housing crisis, and that stems from inadequate supply.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#14

Post by adam_arthur »

oldgradstudent wrote: post #5

Is there even a shred of evidence that the housing crisis is a result of higher construction costs? Or is the Fed trying to draw attention away from the catastrophic impact of its zero interest and other policies on the massive increase in asset prices?

Population is flat over the last two years, while housing units are up and the construction rate is all time high. There is no crisis, just rampant speculation that ate through active inventory.

The actual data is very clear on this (FRED), despite the word of mouth "shortage" narrative.

Now that the narrative is turning, inventory is skyrocketing as you would expect, and we will be in a glut within 6 months. Look at the "all time low inventory" of the 2000s as another example. How quickly did the inventory narrative collapse back then? A few months

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#15

Post by epistasis »

TedShiller wrote: post #6

There is no housing crisis.

There's not a crisis if you already own your home and are collecting those sweet sweet land rents. And by denying the existence of others' problems, those who own land get to collect ever higher economic rents.

But for everybody else, yes there's a huge housing crisis.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#16

Post by jelliclesfarm »

Unions. One of the major set backs for building more in Bay Area and San Francisco is not NIMBYism or zoning. It’s because construction unions have a big say with the counties and they have a big voice during elections.

Anything that involves mortgages and the govt has to necessarily support unions and work with them. They don’t like modular homes as automation will replace union jobs.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#17

Post by jelliclesfarm »

adam_arthur wrote: post #14
oldgradstudent wrote: post #5

Is there even a shred of evidence that the housing crisis is a result of higher construction costs? Or is the Fed trying to draw attention away from the catastrophic impact of its zero interest and other policies on the massive increase in asset prices?

Population is flat over the last two years, while housing units are up and the construction rate is all time high. There is no crisis, just rampant speculation that ate through active inventory. The actual data is very clear on this (FRED), despite the word of mouth "shortage" narrative. Now that the narrative is turning, inventory is skyrocketing as you would expect, and we will be in a glut within 6 months. Look at…

I don’t know why you are downvoted. You are right. Upvoted.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#18

Post by adam_arthur »

jelliclesfarm wrote: post #17
adam_arthur wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Population is flat over the last two years, while housing units are up and the construction rate is all time high. There is no crisis, just rampant speculation that ate through active inventory. The actual data is very clear on this (FRED), despite the word of mouth "shortage" narrative. Now that the narrative is turning, inventory is skyrocketing as you would expect, and we will be in a glut within 6 months. Look at…

I don’t know why you are downvoted. You are right. Upvoted.

Yup, I can cite as needed when the angry comments show up. Too many with a vested belief in the narrative.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#19

Post by epistasis »

adam_arthur wrote: post #14
oldgradstudent wrote: post #5

Is there even a shred of evidence that the housing crisis is a result of higher construction costs? Or is the Fed trying to draw attention away from the catastrophic impact of its zero interest and other policies on the massive increase in asset prices?

Population is flat over the last two years, while housing units are up and the construction rate is all time high. There is no crisis, just rampant speculation that ate through active inventory. The actual data is very clear on this (FRED), despite the word of mouth "shortage" narrative. Now that the narrative is turning, inventory is skyrocketing as you would expect, and we will be in a glut within 6 months. Look at…

But is there anything else that might have changed over the past two years thay might add some nuance to it? Such as massive shifts in where people want to live, how much space they want, etc.

Looking just at the past two years ignores them past 14 years since the 2008 crisis, from which housing construction is just barely beginning to recover. And houses under construction is not completed house construction rate; each individual build is taking far longer because of supply chain issues, so it looks like there are far more houses in the pipeline, but there isn't actually an oversupply of housing by any means.

If there was an oversupply, we'd see flatter prices, or maybe even declines. Housing prices are quite sticky, but we aren't seeing either massive vacancy rates or falling prices.

Re: Solving the housing crisis requires fighting monopolies in construction (2020)

#20

Post by epistasis »

adam_arthur wrote: post #18
jelliclesfarm wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know why you are downvoted. You are right. Upvoted.

Yup, I can cite as needed when the angry comments show up. Too many with a vested belief in the narrative.

You are preventing an extremely selective and unrepresentative view of the stats.
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