Live data from Hacker News

Netflix Isn't Doomed

online.wsj.com

11–20 of 38 posts

Re: Netflix Isn't Doomed

#11
The fact that media companies are unwilling to let any one company have a full listing of all movies is one of the major failings of the industry. The videogame industry has the same fundamental problem but the near monopoly of the Steam service actually does them some good in my opinion.

The problem I think is rooted in piracy, at least as it is practiced in first-world countries where convenience is worth more than price. Piracy has several built-in practical issues, because it is frankly inconvenient to be conducting illegal business, and DRM provides another inconvenience. But despite these endemic problems with piracy, it does offer a huge convenience: universality. The legal movie market is fragmented and therefore a pain to deal with, where the black market is very universal, with mirrors of content on all the major distribution channels (torrents, rapidshare/HTTP sites, and USENET are the big three).

The interesting thing to me is that all three of these distribution channels have successful paid services springing up around them. There are private VPN services you can pay for to torrent from a foreign IP. Almost every HTTP distribution site such as rapidshare has a premium service you can pay for to get more volume. And USENET has several news servers that retain data for years and offer direct encrypted downloads. So it is clear to me that people are willing to pay for the benefits these services offer.

If you line up the pros and cons, I would say that legal services win out on almost every count except two: price and universality. The success of grey market services and nearly-universal services in other industries (iTunes, Steam) tells me that price is not the real blocker, if only movie studios would get their act together and let distributors license everything in the world.

I would love to see a world where cable TV providers, digital streaming services and physical retail services all had access to the entire catalog of movies and competed on price and convenience. The current world where services compete with content catalogs and exclusivity just seems unsustainable because it is worse for consumers in the long run.

Re: Netflix Isn't Doomed

#12
Honestly, Amazon may have the best streaming solution right now.

I have a Roku box that gets both, though I usually stick to Netflix. I got an episode that glitched the other day, so I flipped over to Amazon Prime, which turned out to have it, so I watched it there. I then flipped around a little bit to see what was new.

The great thing about Amazon is that their streaming library is way, way more comprehensive. Want something that isn't a part of a Prime subscription? Just pay a rental or purchase fee and watch it right away, without waiting for a disk, running down to Redbox, or whatever. Don't have a Prime subscription at all? Try it for cash for a few times and see whether the subscription fee is worth paying. And since it's Amazon, they probably already have your credit card on file, so there's not much to fiddle with.

If they can get the Kindle Fire in a lot of people's hands (and apparently they can, if the rumors are true), this could be a huge opportunity for them to leapfrog Netflix and Apple.

Re: Netflix Isn't Doomed

#13

I'm not long on Netflix, and here's why: 1. Netflix is at the mercy of media companies that control the content. Media companies can basically charge whatever they want for their content on Netflix. If Netflix can't afford it, they'll let their contracts expire and people will no longer get to see the movies and shows they want to watch. Unfortunately, the pricing hikes made consumers realize that it was extremely ex…

I doubt that anybody 'doubled up' and now pays for both the DVD and streaming option. The reason for the DVD service to exist at all is to do with Hollywood accounting and the way the licenses are counted - the idiocy of this has been discussed here before. The studios can't start their own streaming service simply because they do not have the branding they think they have. This isn't the 1950s, nobody thinks "I must…

Isn't HBO already in the "writing and supporting software player" business with its HBO Go apps? It's already circumventing business like Netflix today.

Re: Netflix Isn't Doomed

#14
He may be right that no company will get all the movies/series/etc and the market will continue to be fragmented.

But if that happens then piracy will kill the industry and nothing will be able to save them. This doesn't mean that they can survive only if there is a single company you can buy from -- I believe there is space for a number of different companies much like there is Spotify, Last.fm, iTunes store, etc each with a different model for how to provide value to customers -- but that each company must have all, or substantially all, the movies people want.

Because as long as it is easier for people to find what they want on a torrent site or on rapidshare or on usenet they will do that. The movie industry is in competition with the pirates and have no way to beat them on price so they will have to fight on the basis of convenience (which is a battle they can will, as illustrated by iTunes).

If they don't, they are doomed.

And if anybody out there is looking for a new startup, may I suggest that you make a recommendation engine like netflix has but for tv series. The channels (and especially the bundles of channels) belong to the past. But there is good value in recommending good quality tv shows to people who may be interested in them. If Netflix had focused massively on that, they would be in much stronger position against the rights holders.

Re: Netflix Isn't Doomed

#15

The fact that media companies are unwilling to let any one company have a full listing of all movies is one of the major failings of the industry. The videogame industry has the same fundamental problem but the near monopoly of the Steam service actually does them some good in my opinion. The problem I think is rooted in piracy, at least as it is practiced in first-world countries where convenience is worth more than…

The problem I think is rooted in piracy, at least as it is practiced in first-world countries where convenience is worth more than price. Piracy has several built-in practical issues, because it is frankly inconvenient to be conducting illegal business, and DRM provides another inconvenience. But despite these endemic problems with piracy, it does offer a huge convenience: universality. The legal movie market is fragmented and therefore a pain to deal with, where the black market is very universal, with mirrors of content on all the major distribution channels (torrents, rapidshare/HTTP sites, and USENET are the big three).

I think you're overestimating the effect of piracy, because you tend to hang out with young, tech-savvy folks. The average Netflix customer would have no idea how or where to pirate a movie even if they did want to (not to mention there are some people in the world who aren't completely amoral and as such wouldn't).

Re: Netflix Isn't Doomed

#16

Honestly, Amazon may have the best streaming solution right now. I have a Roku box that gets both, though I usually stick to Netflix. I got an episode that glitched the other day, so I flipped over to Amazon Prime, which turned out to have it, so I watched it there. I then flipped around a little bit to see what was new. The great thing about Amazon is that their streaming library is way, way more comprehensive. Want…

Another good thing about Amazon is that, via Prime, you also get awesome shipping. So for the cost, it is hard to beat.

But, UX-wise, Amazon has a lot of issues.

With their streaming movies, if you leave a program half-way and come back later, you have to search for it all over again to find it and resume the program. There isn't a "recently viewed" section or any of that.

The site is also very static (pretty lame content discovery). Not nearly as compelling as the actual Amazon stores, oddly. It's as if it isn't hooked into your search history or viewing preferences. At. All. The experience is painfully mimicking the store experience, but without the typical Amazon recommendations. It's disappointing, to say the least.

Re: Netflix Isn't Doomed

#17

Honestly, Amazon may have the best streaming solution right now. I have a Roku box that gets both, though I usually stick to Netflix. I got an episode that glitched the other day, so I flipped over to Amazon Prime, which turned out to have it, so I watched it there. I then flipped around a little bit to see what was new. The great thing about Amazon is that their streaming library is way, way more comprehensive. Want…

Another good thing about Amazon is that, via Prime, you also get awesome shipping. So for the cost, it is hard to beat. But, UX-wise, Amazon has a lot of issues. With their streaming movies, if you leave a program half-way and come back later, you have to search for it all over again to find it and resume the program. There isn't a "recently viewed" section or any of that. The site is also very static (pretty lame co…

I couldn't agree more. The current experience of watching movies on Amazon is horrible. They basically bolted a substandard YouTube like player onto the existing Amazon storefront UI. It's a horrible combination for watching movies and I tend to avoid it when possible. I'll check Netflix and see if they have what I want before I ever go to Amazon.

Re: Netflix Isn't Doomed

#18

I'm not long on Netflix, and here's why: 1. Netflix is at the mercy of media companies that control the content. Media companies can basically charge whatever they want for their content on Netflix. If Netflix can't afford it, they'll let their contracts expire and people will no longer get to see the movies and shows they want to watch. Unfortunately, the pricing hikes made consumers realize that it was extremely ex…

I doubt that anybody 'doubled up' and now pays for both the DVD and streaming option. The reason for the DVD service to exist at all is to do with Hollywood accounting and the way the licenses are counted - the idiocy of this has been discussed here before. The studios can't start their own streaming service simply because they do not have the branding they think they have. This isn't the 1950s, nobody thinks "I must…

> I doubt that anybody 'doubled up' and now pays for both the DVD and streaming option.

I did/do.

Re: Netflix Isn't Doomed

#19
A bit OT, but what about the concept of "movies" in general going away? This is something that we've only had for around 100 years - as part of mainstream society's expectations, it's only a few generations old.

Might we see a major transformation of what we consider 'movies' (both in form and in content) due to delivery constraints, IP issues and such?

Re: Netflix Isn't Doomed

#20
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt that anybody 'doubled up' and now pays for both the DVD and streaming option. The reason for the DVD service to exist at all is to do with Hollywood accounting and the way the licenses are counted - the idiocy of this has been discussed here before. The studios can't start their own streaming service simply because they do not have the branding they think they have. This isn't the 1950s, nobody thinks "I must…

Isn't HBO already in the "writing and supporting software player" business with its HBO Go apps? It's already circumventing business like Netflix today.

Kinda. In order to get HBO Go you need to be a subscriber, through your cable company. And not ever cable network is providing access to HBO Go, though I hear Time Warner Cable, is close to doing so.
Post reply on HN