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U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

wsj.com

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Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#11
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're saying there will be food shortages this year. Combined with mass immigration from failed states (so already bringing violence + spreading what little we have even thinner) civil unrest is certain.

States as in countries or states as in US states?

Countries. The war in Europe is disrupting food production and fertilizer sourcing. There’s enough food but the logistics are screwy and many countries do not store food.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#12
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> food scarcity How much food rotted at the Texas border after Governor Abbott's PR stunt held it up? Estimated to be over $4Billion.

Something about that $4 Billion figure seems exaggerated, intangible, or simply an on-paper calculation. Assuming a truck carrying food is 6 hours late, how much spoilage does that actually cause? Would a pileup on an interstate causing an hours long delay likewise have its "impact" calculated to be in the tens of millions?

I haven’t seen a $4 billion number, $9 billion is the total trade. $240 million is the estimate lost due to spoilage, and the longest waiting time looks to have been 30 hours: https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-gov-greg-abbott-truck-...

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#13
post #6

GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B >they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession. It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'. There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour…

> food scarcity How much food rotted at the Texas border after Governor Abbott's PR stunt held it up? Estimated to be over $4Billion.

>How much food rotted at the Texas border after Governor Abbott's PR stunt held it up? Estimated to be over $4Billion.

https://medium.com/the-haven/texas-gov-abbotts-racist-border...

This article says $240 million and he reversed the policy? So it's not an ongoing issue?

Also if food is 'rotting' because he is sitting in a truck for perhaps a day longer? Perhaps it was rotting before?

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#14
post #6

GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B >they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession. It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'. There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour…

> food scarcity How much food rotted at the Texas border after Governor Abbott's PR stunt held it up? Estimated to be over $4Billion.

>How much food rotted at the Texas border after Governor Abbott's PR stunt held it up? Estimated to be over $4Billion.

First, I'm skeptical about $4 billion. That's a lot of food.

Second, what is with the need to bring up something or someone irrelevant as a rebuttal every time there's even a tangential criticism of the current powers-that-be?

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#15

GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B >they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession. It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'. There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour…

Not sure if you noticed but we had massive food scarcity in March and April 2020 and the most inconvenient thing about it was waiting in line to pay and my kids not having hot dogs for several months.

Not saying civil unrest isn’t a possibility, but I’m not sure economic uncertainty could do any worse than airborne-once-in-a-lifetime pandemic

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#16

Shows just how sensitive our economy is to small interest rate fluctuations, having lived around the zero bound for over a decade. We've encouraged everyone to lever out as far as possible while at the same time making real production more and more difficult (or, during the early lock downs, impossible) and, well, the long run is here. Keynes was right: he's dead. Unfortunately, we, and our children, are not.

The US Fed didn’t raise interest rates until March, much too late to cause this number.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#18

GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B >they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession. It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'. There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour…

> A civil pillar like food scarcity will spark more than civil unrest. Probably will be civil war before midterms happen. Like what happened with the Great Depression? I saw no mention of food shortages in the article. My sense is that civil wars are when states/governments fight, not hungry people. You could have stopped at civil unrest.

Arab spring is a more modern example.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-bread-food-pr...

https://medium.com/something-about-everything/food-riots-and...

>My sense is that civil wars are when states/governments fight, not hungry people. You could have stopped at civil unrest.

What happens when food is scarce and people are starving for possibly the first time in their life? Anxiety, depression, etc is well established.

Then people are going to want to know why they are starving.

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#19
post #3

GDP: -1.4% DOW: -8.36% YTD S&P500: -12.22% YTD NASDAQ: -20.17% YTD Inflation: 8.5% Interest rate: 0.5%(increasing once by 0.25%) Balance of trade: $-89.2B >they still think the Fed will be able to rein in inflation without triggering a recession. It was raised once and everything is collapsing underneath. Don't know how you look at all this and think 'it'll be fine'. There's a general rule that this kind of behaviour…

They're saying there will be food shortages this year. Combined with mass immigration from failed states (so already bringing violence + spreading what little we have even thinner) civil unrest is certain.

The White House is saying the opposite in relation to food shortages: https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/15190405387790377...

Re: U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% annual rate in the first quarter

#20

Shows just how sensitive our economy is to small interest rate fluctuations, having lived around the zero bound for over a decade. We've encouraged everyone to lever out as far as possible while at the same time making real production more and more difficult (or, during the early lock downs, impossible) and, well, the long run is here. Keynes was right: he's dead. Unfortunately, we, and our children, are not.

The US Fed didn’t raise interest rates until March, much too late to cause this number.

They began talking about raising rates much earlier. Markets and the economy are forward looking.
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