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The frenzied world of rare watches

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Re: The frenzied world of rare watches

#12
post #5

I guess it's like any other collectable, just way WAY more expensive. Though I'm not sure what's lost by wearing it? "Such market conditions have presented a dilemma for collectors who actually want to show off their popular models, knowing the message that will send to other connoisseurs. “If you wear them, you’re an idiot, ” says one collector. “Either you paid five times retail, or you bought it retail and you’re…

You're risking damage, you're risking theft, you're paying higher insurance premiums in either case, etc, etc.

Damage isn’t a huge problem, watches tend to be pretty sturdy and mere scratches aren’t going to hurt resale value in most cases (unless you have them repaired!)

Theft on the other hand is a pretty big concern, I just had a 100k patek ripped off my wrist. I’m very lucky though, the local store manager was sympathetic and managed to help me skip the queue for a (slightly more desirable) replacement, effectively nullifying any financial damage.

Lesson learned, not walking around with uninsured watches no matter how nice the area is. Insurance premiums aren’t too bad though.

Re: The frenzied world of rare watches

#13
I came into collecting modest watches around 2010. There was certainly a renewed interest in mechanical watches at the time, a lot of it being driven by things like MaleFashionAdvice on Reddit. I believe MFA had a significant hand in rescuing Seiko from obscurity with the SNK809 and SKX007. Old Seiko mechanical chronographs like the 6139 could be had readily for less than a thousand dollars. I had a beautifully restored one I bought and sold for around $300. The same watch is worth at least three times that today.

At that time, it was still possible to acquire steel Rolexes at "modest" prices. As a goal to celebrate my (future) career achievements, I set my sights on a birth year Submariner - which were attainable at the $3,500+ price points at that time.

You can't really buy a Submariner for less than $10k today. As mentioned in the article, Rolex dealers and others play crazy games where stainless models are virtually unobtanium. Even trickle down brands (Tudor, for example) have ridden the wave. I can no longer afford, nor do I want to afford, a birth year submariner. To me, the beauty in those watches is that they are tools; they were built to serve a purpose.

I ended up lucking into a Tudor Pelagos Left Hand Drive. The ultimate tool watch - light titanium, great lume, etc. I wear it. I wear it hard. It's been with me for dozens of life momentous events. When the watch craze passes, I hope I can pass it down to my kiddo as a reminder of my existence.

Re: The frenzied world of rare watches

#14
post #8
post #7

I've been a fan of budget Seiko mechanical watches from the 60's and 70's. Most of the time they run well, servicing isn't terribly expensive, and you can get them for usually a few hundred dollars, maybe a grand for a really nice specimen. What's cool about them is you can decipher the serial number [0] to the month and year they were made, so they can commemorate an event, even if it happened a long time ago. But y…

I have one of these, a '5' and it still keeps time just fine after many years. It's a completely mechanical watch, no batteries to replace and no frills. It will likely outlive me.

Seiko 5's are great, rock solid, last forever. My dad handed down his Seiko 5 to me, it was a 1982 model, that still runs like a champ. Take that Apple Watch we'll see if you're still running in 2062.

Re: The frenzied world of rare watches

#15
post #7

I've been a fan of budget Seiko mechanical watches from the 60's and 70's. Most of the time they run well, servicing isn't terribly expensive, and you can get them for usually a few hundred dollars, maybe a grand for a really nice specimen. What's cool about them is you can decipher the serial number [0] to the month and year they were made, so they can commemorate an event, even if it happened a long time ago. But y…

I am a fan of another Japanese watch brand, Citizen, particularly the Eco-Drive models. Solar powered, very durable, and they look great. Prices range from $100 for basic models to over $3000 for the Hakuto-R (there is some connection to the Japanese lunar mission, https://www.citizenwatch.com/us/en/product/CC4016-75E.html). Most Citizen watches are water resistant as well.

I've had one model running continuously for 12 years. I love never having to charge it or change the battery.

Re: The frenzied world of rare watches

#16
post #9
post #6

If you want an idea of how crazy this can get: https://www.chronext.com/patek-philippe/nautilus/5990-1a-001...

€449,000 <-- wtf! that's a thousand separator

Shows up as 577,960 USD for me.

EDIT: required javascript, clearly price discriminating.

Re: The frenzied world of rare watches

#17
post #12
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're risking damage, you're risking theft, you're paying higher insurance premiums in either case, etc, etc.

Damage isn’t a huge problem, watches tend to be pretty sturdy and mere scratches aren’t going to hurt resale value in most cases (unless you have them repaired!) Theft on the other hand is a pretty big concern, I just had a 100k patek ripped off my wrist. I’m very lucky though, the local store manager was sympathetic and managed to help me skip the queue for a (slightly more desirable) replacement, effectively nullif…

Insurance on a $100K watch through Hodinkee is around $1400 a year, although I'm sure you can get a better deal.

If you're an enthusiast then you're paying for peace of mind. If you're an investor then that's the equivalent of a 1.4% management fee per year.

The price action right now is absolutely ridiculous, but if you already bought at say 5x retail then that dramatically eats into your potential profits. It's just not worth it, you shove it into a safe and never let it see the light of day.

Re: The frenzied world of rare watches

#18

I guess it's like any other collectable, just way WAY more expensive. Though I'm not sure what's lost by wearing it? "Such market conditions have presented a dilemma for collectors who actually want to show off their popular models, knowing the message that will send to other connoisseurs. “If you wear them, you’re an idiot, ” says one collector. “Either you paid five times retail, or you bought it retail and you’re…

"too stupid to have flipped it"

What a time to be alive when you're called stupid for not being a greedy "playa" flipper.

Maybe some folks who waited on a waiting list for a couple years want to wear a watch they purchased in good health?

Re: The frenzied world of rare watches

#19
So I really like mechanical watches but I've kind of lost interest because it's nigh-on impossible to buy anything new (unless you're a high net worth individual) and the secondary market is utterly insane.

Example: Rolex Daytona in steel retails for ~$13,000. You can buy that from the store and immediately sell it on the secondary market for $30,000+. The Patel Phillippe Nautilus 5711A is similar ($25-30,000 retail, $75,000+ secondary).

As it happens when the current Rolex Daytona came out a few years ago the market wasn't anywhere near as hot and the market was flooded with people flipping the old model for the new. I happened to buy one of the old Daytonas for $10,000. Last time I checked it sells on the secondary market for $35,000. It's nuts.

For anyone who is interested in this, the plae I would start is with only these two brands: Rolex (first) and Patel Phillippe (second). They completely dominate any sort of demand and have a healthy secondary market. With vintage watches you get into all sorts of weird preferences that make massive differences in value and some of those details can be pretty minor (eg rail dials [1]). Some go for astronomical prices, most notably the Paul Newman Daytonas [2], which are funny because when they were production watches they typically sat on shelves for years because no one wanted them.

It's a fascinating world because what you discover is that Rolex are absolute masters of brand management. Like they are absolutely second to none. Omega, for example, produces some high quality watches, sometimes much better than the Rolex equivalent from a pure utility POV (eg Planet Ocean over DSSD). But Omega produces too many watches and too many models. Rolex quite famously has very limited product lines, which is fantastic for a secondary market. Rolex watches really are almost as liquid as cash.

The other interesting thing is you get into the pedigree and history of each of these watches. For example, GMT watches came about in the 1960s to solve a need as pilots started crossing time zones. The Daytona was for race car drivers. Submariners were (and are) for divers. Sure they'r emore of a fashion item now but the history is fascinating.

[1]: https://www.bobswatches.com/rolex-blog/resources/rolex-rail-...

[2]: https://www.bobswatches.com/paul-newman-rolex-daytona

Re: The frenzied world of rare watches

#20
post #12
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're risking damage, you're risking theft, you're paying higher insurance premiums in either case, etc, etc.

Damage isn’t a huge problem, watches tend to be pretty sturdy and mere scratches aren’t going to hurt resale value in most cases (unless you have them repaired!) Theft on the other hand is a pretty big concern, I just had a 100k patek ripped off my wrist. I’m very lucky though, the local store manager was sympathetic and managed to help me skip the queue for a (slightly more desirable) replacement, effectively nullif…

> effectively nullifying any financial damage.

Aren't you out the 100k?

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