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Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index

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Re: Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index

#11
post #9

Is there any reason to believe that Jim Cramer (or the inverse of Jim Cramer) would do particularly well in the stock market? I imagine following a cat picking random stocks works about as well. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/01/14/169326326/hous...

WallStreetBets had something that was like a fish in a fishtank somehow directing stock purchases, versus WSB, and WSB lost.

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Re: Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index

#12

Is there any reason to believe that Jim Cramer (or the inverse of Jim Cramer) would do particularly well in the stock market? I imagine following a cat picking random stocks works about as well. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/01/14/169326326/hous...

Inversing a pump and dump operation, provided it is well timed, can easily beat the market. Assuming that Cramer is a paid actor, this could probably be the case here

When you say, paid actor, are you proposing that Cramer is being paid by some fund to pump a stock that they already have a position in? I don't know, but I believe it'd be highly unlikely given that he had a pretty good career as a fund manager himself, probably doesn't need more money.

The article mentions (or links somewhere to this info) that there's no longer a Cramer pump, although there definitely was a couple years back

Re: Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index

#13
post #9

Is there any reason to believe that Jim Cramer (or the inverse of Jim Cramer) would do particularly well in the stock market? I imagine following a cat picking random stocks works about as well. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/01/14/169326326/hous...

WallStreetBets had something that was like a fish in a fishtank somehow directing stock purchases, versus WSB, and WSB lost.

It was a YouTuber, possibly inspired by a 2012 stunt

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USKD3vPD6ZA

[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey...

Re: Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index

#14
post #7

For taking a position against another growth stock hype luminary, there exists an inverse Cathie Wood index you can trade: an ETF with the ticker SARK (“short ARK”). It has done quite well since its inception last year.

>done quite well since its inception last year. that probably doesnt say much though. what happens if its run since ark's inception?

This is also a problematic metric because of survivorship bias and as part of that, most investors showed up late to the game. Despite the fund having done well, it still could have a negative return over its life when weighted by AUM.

Re: Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index

#15

Is there any reason to believe that Jim Cramer (or the inverse of Jim Cramer) would do particularly well in the stock market? I imagine following a cat picking random stocks works about as well. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/01/14/169326326/hous...

> Is there any reason to believe that Jim Cramer (or the inverse of Jim Cramer) would do particularly well in the stock market?

Jim Cramer, before he was on TV, did well beating the market as a fund manager. So there is a good reason to believe he could. Whether he could televise his strategy to retail investors and funds looking to profit from retail investors and make his viewers money is a different question.

Re: Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index

#17
post #9

Is there any reason to believe that Jim Cramer (or the inverse of Jim Cramer) would do particularly well in the stock market? I imagine following a cat picking random stocks works about as well. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/01/14/169326326/hous...

WallStreetBets had something that was like a fish in a fishtank somehow directing stock purchases, versus WSB, and WSB lost.

OP's linked site Quantbase shows a WallStreetBets tracking portfolio with detailed performance history: https://www.getquantbase.com/details?fund=r/WallStreetBets%2...

Re: Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index

#18
So, they tried a whole bunch of things, and even with the benefit of that lookforward bias, their final strategy still underperformed the S&P? Color me unimpressed.

Edit: I looked at their site and it's clear that their business model is just to gather assets to charge fees on. Which is why they've developed strategies like Inverse Cramer, Pelosi Tracker, WallStreetBets -- these strategies don't have any alpha, they're just designed to catch the eye of retail traders.

Also this scumbaggery, from their website:

"$70M+ Assets Committed*"

Then way at the bottom:

"* = "Assets committed" refers to captured user behavior in attempted investments and not to assets being actively managed."

Re: Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inversing a pump and dump operation, provided it is well timed, can easily beat the market. Assuming that Cramer is a paid actor, this could probably be the case here

When you say, paid actor, are you proposing that Cramer is being paid by some fund to pump a stock that they already have a position in? I don't know, but I believe it'd be highly unlikely given that he had a pretty good career as a fund manager himself, probably doesn't need more money. The article mentions (or links somewhere to this info) that there's no longer a Cramer pump, although there definitely was a couple…

> probably doesn't need more money.

What's he doing on TV all the time then?

Re: Building the Inverse Jim Cramer Index

#20

So, they tried a whole bunch of things, and even with the benefit of that lookforward bias, their final strategy still underperformed the S&P? Color me unimpressed. Edit: I looked at their site and it's clear that their business model is just to gather assets to charge fees on. Which is why they've developed strategies like Inverse Cramer, Pelosi Tracker, WallStreetBets -- these strategies don't have any alpha, they'…

I'd familiarize myself with overfitting (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/overfitting.asp). That's optimizing your portfolio to historical data so much so that it is no longer generalizable to the future.
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