11–20 of 54 posts
OTOH, I also desperately want the denial to turn out to be correct.
The Second Cold War started up around 2010 and it just turned hot. I doubt it will turn into WW3 but this isn't the last proxy war the US and Russia will fight. How do you cope? If you're like me and sleep better with fewer unknowns, understand Russia's and the US's military capabilities—I highly recommend Russia's Military Revival —and read about some modern nuclear strategy. We've evolved past "fire everything at e…
It started with, in response to, or not later than, the 1999 NATO-Yugoslavia War, and was widely recognized to have started at or by that time.
That's literally what the (clearly, failed) famous 2009 “reset button" was about.
Yes, we are sleepwalking into WW3, much in the same way we sleepwalked into WW2. The West has completely misunderstood Putin, and will continue to do so until it's too late to stop these events (a strong show of force and a no-fly-zone would have stopped this, but it's too late now). Scholz is the Chamberlain of our age. Putin aims for territorial expansion to reclaim the USSR plus some buffer space, and to secure Ru…
I suggest you watch this John Mearsheimer talk (2015) as I think it will help clear a lot of misconceptions you seem to have and also tighten your thinking about the matter. If there's gonna be a WW3, it'll be because the West wants a WW3. [2015] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/03/26/sir-adam-...
I don't really see that happening. For one a world war requires well.. the world and its unclear to me how and why Asia would be drawn into this conflict given that there's nothing to gain. Secondly there is way too much asymmetry between NATO and Russia. Russia is in no state to fight a war against a major power which has become obvious given their military performance in Ukraine. So the next escalation would be nuk…
I think history has shown that nothing could be further from the truth. The outbreak of WW2 after the devastation of WW1 deserves particular study. We can zoom out and look at the gradient of events unfolding in order to know if the situation if improving (probably not) or getting worse (likely) but that's pretty much all we can do. A few key actions is all it will take for the cascade of events to turn into a runaway scenario that nobody has any control over.
Things happen and we react. There are no masterminds pushing buttons and pulling levers that have any kind of deliberate control over what happens to the system as a whole.
The Second Cold War started up around 2010 and it just turned hot. I doubt it will turn into WW3 but this isn't the last proxy war the US and Russia will fight. How do you cope? If you're like me and sleep better with fewer unknowns, understand Russia's and the US's military capabilities—I highly recommend Russia's Military Revival —and read about some modern nuclear strategy. We've evolved past "fire everything at e…
> The Second Cold War started up around 2010 It started with, in response to, or not later than, the 1999 NATO-Yugoslavia War, and was widely recognized to have started at or by that time. That's literally what the (clearly, failed) famous 2009 “reset button" was about.
Yes, we are sleepwalking into WW3, much in the same way we sleepwalked into WW2. The West has completely misunderstood Putin, and will continue to do so until it's too late to stop these events (a strong show of force and a no-fly-zone would have stopped this, but it's too late now). Scholz is the Chamberlain of our age. Putin aims for territorial expansion to reclaim the USSR plus some buffer space, and to secure Ru…
I suggest you watch this John Mearsheimer talk (2015) as I think it will help clear a lot of misconceptions you seem to have and also tighten your thinking about the matter. If there's gonna be a WW3, it'll be because the West wants a WW3. [2015] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The Second Cold War started up around 2010 It started with, in response to, or not later than, the 1999 NATO-Yugoslavia War, and was widely recognized to have started at or by that time. That's literally what the (clearly, failed) famous 2009 “reset button" was about.
Eh, I can see where you're coming from but Russia wasn't a serious challenger in the 2000s—their military was a complete mess until the end of the 2000s, and even then they didn't perform that well in Georgia, that's why I peg the start date later
Their military remains a complete mess, but that's largely irrelevant to the existence of a Cold War, which doesn't have to rely on both sides engaging in direct military confrontation with proxies of the other. One side doing their bit primarily by sponsoring, aiding, and instigating asymmetric threats against the other is a way a Cold War can happen, especially when it is shielded from many of the direct consequences that would otherwise be imposed by a large nuclear arsenal and a UN veto.
I don't really see that happening. For one a world war requires well.. the world and its unclear to me how and why Asia would be drawn into this conflict given that there's nothing to gain. Secondly there is way too much asymmetry between NATO and Russia. Russia is in no state to fight a war against a major power which has become obvious given their military performance in Ukraine. So the next escalation would be nuk…
You seem to think that cascading events follow some sort of hierarchy subject to the whims of the military and/or that the chain of causation following an event as probable as Russia deploying tactical nuclear weapons is subject to human stratagems. I think history has shown that nothing could be further from the truth. The outbreak of WW2 after the devastation of WW1 deserves particular study. We can zoom out and lo…
I'm a little bit tired of people whose entire headspace is WW I and WW II analogies because frankly it's not the world we've been in any more for a long time. And it's actually what has made the world more unsafe, because it has made leaders reluctant to act and confront aggressive powers.
Someone stated that Putin doesn't think he's at war with Ukraine. He thinks he's at war with NATO. From some of the things he's said, I think that assessment is correct. That makes it really hard to stop. If he thinks he's already at war with us, then he can make that a reality how and when he wants. But I'm not sure we're sleepwalking into it. We're aware; we just have very few options of avoiding it if Putin is det…
Yes, we are sleepwalking into WW3, much in the same way we sleepwalked into WW2. The West has completely misunderstood Putin, and will continue to do so until it's too late to stop these events (a strong show of force and a no-fly-zone would have stopped this, but it's too late now). Scholz is the Chamberlain of our age. Putin aims for territorial expansion to reclaim the USSR plus some buffer space, and to secure Ru…
I suggest you watch this John Mearsheimer talk (2015) as I think it will help clear a lot of misconceptions you seem to have and also tighten your thinking about the matter. If there's gonna be a WW3, it'll be because the West wants a WW3. [2015] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
Even Clinton is perplexed at Russian reactions: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/bill-clint...
Mearsheimer is absolutely wrong in suggesting that Russia is not interested in absorbing Ukraine and the other satellite states. But then again he's framing it in some sort of Afghanistan-like invasion and ensuing quagmire, which of course Putin would never (knowingly) do.
Here's a nice quote from 23:41: "In fact if you really want to wreck Russia, what you should do is encourage it to try and conquer Ukraine. Putin again is much too smart to do that."