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We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

greg-satell.medium.com

11–20 of 318 posts

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#11
Having taken a $30 Uber to drive 15 minutes lately, when a taxi would’ve cost $10 or so, I don’t think they’ve ultimately created much value with their rideshare service. They’ve basically just moved the entities around, and now it takes a lot longer to get a taxi.

Ultimately this is an era largely of the conglomerate, it doesn’t matter who you are unless you’re one of the big fishes. Media, Advertising, etc. Its no longer small shops that are creating interesting and useful things, at least not at the rate they were. It’s more likely to be an expansion out of a big company into a marketplace trying to sip an audience than it is a disruptor changing any of the game. The disrupters that exist must get and stay large as fast as possible as well.

I’m looking for things that don’t scale. I think we’ve basically poured all societies money into anything that might scale. We’ve found we have run out of those things. And all the problems we have left are things like education, homelessness, lack of meaning, healthcare, etc. All problems so entrenched I’m willing to say at this point they can’t scale, and therefore won’t be solved. Maybe the next technological revolution will be a social dynamic. Who knows.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#12
post #11

Having taken a $30 Uber to drive 15 minutes lately, when a taxi would’ve cost $10 or so, I don’t think they’ve ultimately created much value with their rideshare service. They’ve basically just moved the entities around, and now it takes a lot longer to get a taxi. Ultimately this is an era largely of the conglomerate, it doesn’t matter who you are unless you’re one of the big fishes. Media, Advertising, etc. Its no…

[deleted]

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#13
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree that writing software is comparable to literacy. I think it's more similar to any other profession, with a skillset you can learn if you're interested, or learn to get paid. Not everyone is interested in writing software, and that's fine. It has also never been easier to tinker with things, as root VMs are cheaply available, in comparison to 20 years ago, when you really were just given a cpanel interface,…

Not writing software, using it requires software literacy. How many people do you know that refuse to learn the software they use everyday? How many times have you helped a friend or colleague with some problem just by googling it even when you don't really understand what they do for a living? It's not that we need everyone to create software, but it would unlock huge productivity gains if everyone stopped pasting s…

Somehown I think the literature on excel is lacking. Do you know any reference which shows 'how to use it' in your sense?

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#14
post #6

My take on the productivity paradox is software is a form of literacy . We have put a pen and paper onto every desktop and every pocket but almost no-one can read or write. Edit: And those that can find that only a tiny fraction of the fold is written down (accessible through the virtual cyber world). Amazon's secret to success was forcing every service to live behind a "public" API.

I disagree that writing software is comparable to literacy. I think it's more similar to any other profession, with a skillset you can learn if you're interested, or learn to get paid. Not everyone is interested in writing software, and that's fine. It has also never been easier to tinker with things, as root VMs are cheaply available, in comparison to 20 years ago, when you really were just given a cpanel interface,…

IMHO software development is closest to research work. E.g. a software development company is much closer to a research institute or design center than an assembly line in a factory. Unfortunately in reality it's more often treated like a late-medieval manufactory, or at best a scriptorium in a monastery.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#15
Fully agree with this.

It seems like so many of the apps that come to dominate just make up for shortcomings unique to the US that then, with money, take over the rest of the west for no good reason other than scale to get 25 people at the top of those companies rich.

I’ve never seen the need for Uber. Taxis have never been an issue in the UK and the most successful firms in the city I lived when Uber was starting out already had apps. Literally the only thing Uber had going for it was masses of money to undercut the market and advertise to younger millennials - basically their excess money allowed them to get better distribution and cheat the market.

I’ve used Uber three or four times in my life and each time was a worse experience than a taxi.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#17

My take on the productivity paradox is software is a form of literacy . We have put a pen and paper onto every desktop and every pocket but almost no-one can read or write. Edit: And those that can find that only a tiny fraction of the fold is written down (accessible through the virtual cyber world). Amazon's secret to success was forcing every service to live behind a "public" API.

That's a fun metaphor. I don't think it's _literally_ true :)

Adding software got easy because development evolved, and supply exceeded demand. The "Internet of Trash" is my go-to example. Modern engineering got so good, and we're surrounded by so much efficient, durable technology that manufacturers ran out of ways to add value. So they started figuring out how to:

1) add internet connectivity whether it's wanted or not

2) control and break things using software

3) extract profitable data from users

All of these just kick the can down the road toward more solutionism without really innovating in the original engineering domain.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#18
post #11

Having taken a $30 Uber to drive 15 minutes lately, when a taxi would’ve cost $10 or so, I don’t think they’ve ultimately created much value with their rideshare service. They’ve basically just moved the entities around, and now it takes a lot longer to get a taxi. Ultimately this is an era largely of the conglomerate, it doesn’t matter who you are unless you’re one of the big fishes. Media, Advertising, etc. Its no…

That doesn't sound right to me. The only place where you're paying $30 for an Uber where 1. it would have been possible to call a taxi, 2. the taxi only costs $10, 3. it's a 15 minute drive, is in the middle of a big city. In that case, why are you calling an Uber instead of using public transit?

Yes, Ubers are more expensive than taxis in some cases, but in many other cases, they can do things that taxis can't.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#19
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree that writing software is comparable to literacy. I think it's more similar to any other profession, with a skillset you can learn if you're interested, or learn to get paid. Not everyone is interested in writing software, and that's fine. It has also never been easier to tinker with things, as root VMs are cheaply available, in comparison to 20 years ago, when you really were just given a cpanel interface,…

Not writing software, using it requires software literacy. How many people do you know that refuse to learn the software they use everyday? How many times have you helped a friend or colleague with some problem just by googling it even when you don't really understand what they do for a living? It's not that we need everyone to create software, but it would unlock huge productivity gains if everyone stopped pasting s…

> How many times have you helped a friend or colleague with some problem just by googling it even when you don't really understand what they do for a living?

I think sometimes it is also the case of knowingly what to Google for, and being able to pick out the correct answer.

For example, recently I was involved in a cache issue for an android phone. One of the answers on Google was to download some sort of cache cleaning program. Of course, I knew that this was likely to be a security risk, but others would have downloaded it.

People are naturally wary about this thing, so sometimes I don't mind if they'd prefer not to Google and implement a solution themselves.

Re: We must return to an economy fueled by innovation, rather than disruption

#20

Fully agree with this. It seems like so many of the apps that come to dominate just make up for shortcomings unique to the US that then, with money, take over the rest of the west for no good reason other than scale to get 25 people at the top of those companies rich. I’ve never seen the need for Uber. Taxis have never been an issue in the UK and the most successful firms in the city I lived when Uber was starting ou…

How do you pay your regular taxis in the UK?
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