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The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

economist.com

11–20 of 140 posts

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#11
Let me guess: the "bold action" they want is to throw a few more trillions at bank shareholders and prodigal borrowers.

No thanks. We would be better off to head straight through the black hole, full speed ahead. It will be painful for a few years but we'll come through the other side with cleaner balance sheets and sustainable government budgets.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#12
I agree with OstiaAntica. This Economist article is a thinly veiled call for more debt and more inflationary spending. Who stands in the way of "recovery" ? The obstinate Germans (who learned the lesson of hyperinflation last century) with the only sound Euro economy, i.e. they will be paying for the bailouts. In the USA its the Tea Party and the few Republicans with a spine who recognize that the problem is the massive debt and adding to it is only going to delay the inevitable and make it worse. The bold action (that will never happen) is to let the zombie banks and businesses fail, then pickup the pieces and start over. It won't happen and everyone had better prepare for high, if not, hyper-inflation because politically that is the road we are on.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#13

"Bold" action by the politicians and the central banks created much of the current mess. If we'd just cleared the pipes by letting the banks fail, recapitalizing new banks, and basically rebooting the financial system, we'd be much further along. Instead, we got bailouts and crony capitalism and ad hoc intervention, and today the global system is in many ways in worse shape now than in 2008. (Banking is more concentr…

You mean like a free market economy?

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#14

"Bold" action by the politicians and the central banks created much of the current mess. If we'd just cleared the pipes by letting the banks fail, recapitalizing new banks, and basically rebooting the financial system, we'd be much further along. Instead, we got bailouts and crony capitalism and ad hoc intervention, and today the global system is in many ways in worse shape now than in 2008. (Banking is more concentr…

letting the banks fail, recapitalizing new banks, and basically rebooting the financial system

Please tell us how that works in practice rather than in theory. I really, really want to know how you just 'reboot' the financial system without massive disruption to retail banking or the payments system. How do you 're'capitalize a new bank? If you just mean create new banks, who is running these banks? I mean, I'd like to have seen a complete reboot of the system as well, but it looks like the sort of thing that is much easier said than actually done. If you're going to mention Sweden, provide specifics of how long it took and how much capital was involved.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#15

"Bold" action by the politicians and the central banks created much of the current mess. If we'd just cleared the pipes by letting the banks fail, recapitalizing new banks, and basically rebooting the financial system, we'd be much further along. Instead, we got bailouts and crony capitalism and ad hoc intervention, and today the global system is in many ways in worse shape now than in 2008. (Banking is more concentr…

We shouldn't practice financial regulation like it's holistic medicine. Metaphors about cleaning the pipes and taking the pain should be weighed against the evidence we have about what happens when you let banks fail, and that didn't go very well when we did it with Lehman Brothers.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#16
Nothing new here.

What I find interesting is how an impending Chinese squeeze would affect American markets. Their economy has been steadily dropping, but with all eyes on Europe no one has really looked into it.

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2011/09/china-squeeze.html

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#17

"Bold" action by the politicians and the central banks created much of the current mess. If we'd just cleared the pipes by letting the banks fail, recapitalizing new banks, and basically rebooting the financial system, we'd be much further along. Instead, we got bailouts and crony capitalism and ad hoc intervention, and today the global system is in many ways in worse shape now than in 2008. (Banking is more concentr…

We shouldn't practice financial regulation like it's holistic medicine. Metaphors about cleaning the pipes and taking the pain should be weighed against the evidence we have about what happens when you let banks fail, and that didn't go very well when we did it with Lehman Brothers.

So far this year, 73 US banks have failed, with resolution handled by the FDIC. Bank failures don't have to be horrific. We would arguably be better off as a country if rather than bailing out the big banks they had been taken over, recapitalized, and reprivatized.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#18
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We shouldn't practice financial regulation like it's holistic medicine. Metaphors about cleaning the pipes and taking the pain should be weighed against the evidence we have about what happens when you let banks fail, and that didn't go very well when we did it with Lehman Brothers.

So far this year, 73 US banks have failed, with resolution handled by the FDIC. Bank failures don't have to be horrific. We would arguably be better off as a country if rather than bailing out the big banks they had been taken over, recapitalized, and reprivatized.

They aren't hardly at the scale of Lehman/BoA though - its hard to imagine a failure of one of those banks being handled by the FDIC with anything approaching grace or control.

While the greater point may be true, it does have the benefit of hindsight to a certain degree.

At the same time - after seeing the effects of Lehman's collapse, the regulators really didn't have any other choice than saving those banks. The option of not acting really wasn't there.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#19

"Bold" action by the politicians and the central banks created much of the current mess. If we'd just cleared the pipes by letting the banks fail, recapitalizing new banks, and basically rebooting the financial system, we'd be much further along. Instead, we got bailouts and crony capitalism and ad hoc intervention, and today the global system is in many ways in worse shape now than in 2008. (Banking is more concentr…

You mean like a free market economy?

Not exactly. True free market economies would let the banks fail, but the government also wouldn't recapitalize new ones, it would let the market handle that, or not as the case may be.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#20

That article has almost zero factual content to back up it's assertions. This kind of nonsensical ravings really grate me. Don't write something like 'witness the increasingly dark economic backdrop' or 'America’s economy is still limping along' without some hard numbers. This article attempts to support those statements with broad general commentary like 'summer slump in share prices and consumer confidence suggest…

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