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No one cared about my spreadsheets

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Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#11

Post by civilized »

SllX wrote: post #8
civilized wrote: post #6

Just my dumb opinion here, but... there's something extremely implausible on its face about the idea that a sufficiently complex spreadsheet could calculate the difference in value generated from kids going to school versus kids not going to school. If people could be convinced that this was something more than a castle in the sky, maybe it would get more attention. I imagine a bunch of academics put their fingers to…

Well, is it calculable? If yes, then a sufficiently complex spreadsheet ought to be able to do the job. However with no auditing, we don’t know whether Brian’s did, or even approached the level of complexity needed to in his calculations. He tried to bring math to a subject that is typically argued through rhetoric and that’s respectable enough.

Counterfactuals can be calculated, but the results will depend on other counterfactuals. There's no getting away from speculating about counterfactuals. If the speculative estimates that went into Caplan's spreadsheets were essentially made up, then it's garbage in garbage out.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#12

Post by giantg2 »

hirundo wrote: post #5

Bryan's boss weighed in on this today: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/02/no... He says the education researchers who might audit this don't because Bryan is an outsider in that field.

That, and some other reasons. Personally I think the lack of (political) splash/impact would be the biggest driver.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#13

Post by nickff »

Havoc wrote: post #10

If you want people to look at your work (of any sort) it has to be at least marginally reader approachable. Novel thinking wrapped in a huge ball of spreadsheets isn’t that. Per authors own words it takes whole day author guided tour to get through it.

Caplan’s approach was not particularly novel thinking, it was just thorough. He used existing studies, tools, and paradigms to calculate the returns to different educations.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#15

Post by BurningFrog »

> Several programmer friends advised me to learn a new programming language like Python to do everything automatically, but I’m 98% sure that would have taken even longer – and introduced numerous additional errors into the results. I did plenty of programming in my youth, and I know my limitations.

I'm biased since I don't know spreadsheets at all, but I think Python code would have been far more reviewable.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#16

Post by civilized »

BurningFrog wrote: post #15

> Several programmer friends advised me to learn a new programming language like Python to do everything automatically, but I’m 98% sure that would have taken even longer – and introduced numerous additional errors into the results. I did plenty of programming in my youth, and I know my limitations. I'm biased since I don't know spreadsheets at all, but I think Python code would have been far more reviewable.

I know "spreadsheeters" and I strongly suspect the author is right about his own programming incompetency.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#17

Post by [deleted] »

giantg2 wrote: post #12
hirundo wrote: post #5

Bryan's boss weighed in on this today: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/02/no... He says the education researchers who might audit this don't because Bryan is an outsider in that field.

That, and some other reasons. Personally I think the lack of (political) splash/impact would be the biggest driver.

[deleted]

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#18

Post by SllX »

civilized wrote: post #11
SllX wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, is it calculable? If yes, then a sufficiently complex spreadsheet ought to be able to do the job. However with no auditing, we don’t know whether Brian’s did, or even approached the level of complexity needed to in his calculations. He tried to bring math to a subject that is typically argued through rhetoric and that’s respectable enough.

Counterfactuals can be calculated, but the results will depend on other counterfactuals. There's no getting away from speculating about counterfactuals. If the speculative estimates that went into Caplan's spreadsheets were essentially made up, then it's garbage in garbage out.

Sure, but I’m not making that call, nor endeavoring to although I might look at these spreadsheets when I have some time. Just pointing out that if this is calculable, then a sufficiently complex spreadsheet ought to be able to do the job.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#19

Post by lamacase »

zwieback wrote: post #7

Has anyone here read the book? I have a hard time imagining that a technical education (e.g. engineering, physics, forestry, chemistry) would be worthless if someone wants to work in that field. Social sciences however... but of course I'm biased there.

I have read the book. He says that engineering degrees are basically the one exception. They're like trade schools. Also, e.g. a social science degree is useful if you're going to be a social science professor/academic, but otherwise none of the skills or knowledge are transferable.

He also says that having any degree is "worth it" to an individual, monetarily. It's just not worth it to society to require everyone to have education they don't use.

Re: No one cared about my spreadsheets

#20

Post by thetallstick »

civilized wrote: post #11
SllX wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, is it calculable? If yes, then a sufficiently complex spreadsheet ought to be able to do the job. However with no auditing, we don’t know whether Brian’s did, or even approached the level of complexity needed to in his calculations. He tried to bring math to a subject that is typically argued through rhetoric and that’s respectable enough.

Counterfactuals can be calculated, but the results will depend on other counterfactuals. There's no getting away from speculating about counterfactuals. If the speculative estimates that went into Caplan's spreadsheets were essentially made up, then it's garbage in garbage out.

> If the speculative estimates that went into Caplan's spreadsheets were essentially made up

When Caplan released the spreadsheet and asked people to "check his math" I am pretty sure what he was really asking was for people to test that exact conditional.

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