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Cloudy with a Chance of Bullshit (2018)

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Re: Cloudy with a Chance of Bullshit (2018)

#13
post #8
post #7

This seems to imply that there isn't any high-resolution precipitation data available that could provide these "minute-by-minute" forecasts, but that isn't true. The National Weather Service provides several radar products that give data with resolutions in the range of 500 m using their NEXRAD technology[0]. This allows for some pretty good estimates of when precipitation will start and end over the next hour or so.…

Moreover, I've used minute-by-minute forecasts myself, and (at least where I lived at the time) they were quite accurate. My use case was "where is a 30 minute gap when I can walk home without getting soaked", and I never once got soaked. So much of the OP falls into the category of things-I-know-to-be-false-from-experience. The article really has a strong vibe of "algorithms are faulty, we need humans in the loop to…

I can’t comment on America, but when I lived in Amsterdam everyone I knew used an app called Buienradar for this exact use case. The accuracy was astonishing.

Re: Cloudy with a Chance of Bullshit (2018)

#14
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moreover, I've used minute-by-minute forecasts myself, and (at least where I lived at the time) they were quite accurate. My use case was "where is a 30 minute gap when I can walk home without getting soaked", and I never once got soaked. So much of the OP falls into the category of things-I-know-to-be-false-from-experience. The article really has a strong vibe of "algorithms are faulty, we need humans in the loop to…

> It's certainly true that having a human in the loop leads to worse outcomes in chess (unless the human has enough modesty to just not do anything). No, this is actually totally false. There is a world championship in computer-aided correspondence chess [1], and you won't get anywhere near the top ranks by having "enough modesty to just not do anything." [1] https://www.iccf.com/

Does deep blue participate?

If not your assertion is false.

Re: Cloudy with a Chance of Bullshit (2018)

#15
> Basically, there’s no reliable way for users to get vetted weather information on their phones.

Browsers should work, right? I check the (Australian) Bureau of Meteorology website all the time on my phone. We use it to plan family trips and when to do the washing.

Re: Cloudy with a Chance of Bullshit (2018)

#17
post #2

Take this with a grain of salt, but I’ve heard that there are stupid legal reasons (lobbied for by the private sector) why government agencies such as the NOAA are prohibited from offering their own apps or services. If that’s true then I think it might be worth directing your anger there first and foremost.

Accuweather (which relies heavily on the national weather service data for its forecasts) lobbied for a bill in 2005 to prevent the weather service to provide data directly to people; the bill failed. Then during the Trump presidency the former Accuweather CEO (whose family still owns the company) was nominated undersecretary of the weather service, but he failed the confirmation hearings.

Re: Cloudy with a Chance of Bullshit (2018)

#18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's certainly true that having a human in the loop leads to worse outcomes in chess (unless the human has enough modesty to just not do anything). No, this is actually totally false. There is a world championship in computer-aided correspondence chess [1], and you won't get anywhere near the top ranks by having "enough modesty to just not do anything." [1] https://www.iccf.com/

Does deep blue participate? If not your assertion is false.

The best chess-playing program is Stockfish and it could give deep blue and any human a handicap and still win easily

The state of art is much better now than before

Re: Cloudy with a Chance of Bullshit (2018)

#19
I'm not a huge enthusiast for home automation (we don't use any voice assistants), but we have a few Mirabella IoT light globes that can turn on/off on a schedule or in response to weather conditions.

Mainly I just have lights turn on before sunset, which works fine, but one of the programs I set up was for some indoor lights to turn on when it rains, as it usually gets quite gloomy here during rain.

It's quite common for that program to activate and turn the lights on when it's hot and sunny with no rain or clouds anywhere nearby.

I gather it must be because they're using this kind of weather forecast data and not doing any live/recent updating.

Re: Cloudy with a Chance of Bullshit (2018)

#20

I'm not a huge enthusiast for home automation (we don't use any voice assistants), but we have a few Mirabella IoT light globes that can turn on/off on a schedule or in response to weather conditions. Mainly I just have lights turn on before sunset, which works fine, but one of the programs I set up was for some indoor lights to turn on when it rains, as it usually gets quite gloomy here during rain. It's quite commo…

Get an ambient light sensor and program your automation to light the lights when it's actually dark and gloomy, not when it's gloomy at, say, the nearest airport or where else they like to stick their measurement equipment.
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