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Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes

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Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes

#11

Post by dkjaudyeqooe »

maxharris wrote: post #7

This is a stunt by Green Hills Software, a maker of embedded operating systems and programming tools that supplies directly to Tesla's competitors (and stands to lose massively as Tesla grows). You might be interested to know that they initiated a public relations campaign decrying the use of Linux as insecure back in 2004: https://lwn.net/Articles/83242/ Here's an article by the very same Dan O’Dowd: "Linux: unfit f…

So he has a motive, but how is he wrong? By any measure the low quality of FSD's performance is seriously dangerous. That regulators allow "beta" software like this to be used by end users on public roads is scandalous.

Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes

#12

Post by robbedpeter »

dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #11
maxharris wrote: post #7

This is a stunt by Green Hills Software, a maker of embedded operating systems and programming tools that supplies directly to Tesla's competitors (and stands to lose massively as Tesla grows). You might be interested to know that they initiated a public relations campaign decrying the use of Linux as insecure back in 2004: https://lwn.net/Articles/83242/ Here's an article by the very same Dan O’Dowd: "Linux: unfit f…

So he has a motive, but how is he wrong? By any measure the low quality of FSD's performance is seriously dangerous. That regulators allow "beta" software like this to be used by end users on public roads is scandalous.

>>In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 484,000 miles.

The ratio of accidents per mile driven is 8 human accidents per software accident. It doesn't account for reduced injury and damage in accidents that do happen, or other indirect benefits (or costs. )

Your assertion that the use of driving automation is scandalous is just wrong.

Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes

#13

Post by sidibe »

robbedpeter wrote: post #12
dkjaudyeqooe wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So he has a motive, but how is he wrong? By any measure the low quality of FSD's performance is seriously dangerous. That regulators allow "beta" software like this to be used by end users on public roads is scandalous.

>>In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile cr…

FSD is different. It's obviously having a would-be accident every few miles from watching Youtube videos (by the biggest fans). And those statistics are ridiculous advertising material comparing the extremely easy fair-weather driving on highways where drivers felt safe enough to use autopilot vs all miles.

Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes

#14

Post by maxharris »

sidibe wrote: post #13
robbedpeter wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile cr…

FSD is different. It's obviously having a would-be accident every few miles from watching Youtube videos (by the biggest fans). And those statistics are ridiculous advertising material comparing the extremely easy fair-weather driving on highways where drivers felt safe enough to use autopilot vs all miles.

Electricity is different. It's obviously having a would-be electrocution every few homes from reading too many novels (by the biggest fans).

https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/8qcy9y/antielectricit...

Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes

#15

Post by BenjiWiebe »

torstenvl wrote: post #9
mort96 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. It doesn't need to be perfect. It only needs to be better than humans on average. (How much better it needs to be is debatable, people react differently to accidents caused by machines than accidents caused by humans, but that's a different discussion.) So this line in the report should probably concern you: > FSD Beta v10 committed one likely collision every 36:25, or 475 per year. This is 8,506 times…

17.9 years seems like a long time. Is this only major two-vehicle collisions? One year during a bad ice storm and stuck with a rental with no 4WD, I went into the ditch twice in one weekend. That's like half my lifetime allowance before I'm considered a bad driver, I guess.

Well since this is what the insurance industry uses, presumably "accidents" causing no damage (or minor damage not turned in to insurance) don't count.

Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes

#16

Post by sidibe »

maxharris wrote: post #14
sidibe wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FSD is different. It's obviously having a would-be accident every few miles from watching Youtube videos (by the biggest fans). And those statistics are ridiculous advertising material comparing the extremely easy fair-weather driving on highways where drivers felt safe enough to use autopilot vs all miles.

Electricity is different. It's obviously having a would-be electrocution every few homes from reading too many novels (by the biggest fans). https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/8qcy9y/antielectricit...

I can think FSD is inevitable while also thinking Tesla's current version is garbage and shouldn't allowed for the public, much less sold for $12k.

This is like defending an early electric company that is deploying lines all over the place and risks shocking people while not working at all.

Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes

#17

Post by robbedpeter »

sidibe wrote: post #13
robbedpeter wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>In the 4th quarter, we recorded one crash for every 4.31 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology (Autosteer and active safety features). For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology (no Autosteer and active safety features), we recorded one crash for every 1.59 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile cr…

FSD is different. It's obviously having a would-be accident every few miles from watching Youtube videos (by the biggest fans). And those statistics are ridiculous advertising material comparing the extremely easy fair-weather driving on highways where drivers felt safe enough to use autopilot vs all miles.

Are you claiming that your personal analysis of a biased selection of YouTube videos is more accurate than the statistics provided to and validated by regulators under weight of law?

The author of the article is also a known bad faith operator. Isn't it more reasonable to base your understanding of driving automation (by Tesla and other companies) on actual numbers and not a laughably biased hit piece by a nonsense person?

Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes

#18

Post by sidibe »

robbedpeter wrote: post #17
sidibe wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FSD is different. It's obviously having a would-be accident every few miles from watching Youtube videos (by the biggest fans). And those statistics are ridiculous advertising material comparing the extremely easy fair-weather driving on highways where drivers felt safe enough to use autopilot vs all miles.

Are you claiming that your personal analysis of a biased selection of YouTube videos is more accurate than the statistics provided to and validated by regulators under weight of law? The author of the article is also a known bad faith operator. Isn't it more reasonable to base your understanding of driving automation (by Tesla and other companies) on actual numbers and not a laughably biased hit piece by a nonsense p…

Yes in this case my perusing youtube videos is more accurate than the statistics Tesla is touting. Almost every trip I see has them making bad mistakes.

Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes

#19

Post by maxharris »

sidibe wrote: post #16
maxharris wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electricity is different. It's obviously having a would-be electrocution every few homes from reading too many novels (by the biggest fans). https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/8qcy9y/antielectricit...

I can think FSD is inevitable while also thinking Tesla's current version is garbage and shouldn't allowed for the public, much less sold for $12k. This is like defending an early electric company that is deploying lines all over the place and risks shocking people while not working at all.

New things are inherently riskier than old things. How do you expect to see progress without experimentation and short feedback cycles?

Re: Analysis shows Tesla FSD makes critical driving errors every 8 minutes

#20

Post by sidibe »

maxharris wrote: post #19
sidibe wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can think FSD is inevitable while also thinking Tesla's current version is garbage and shouldn't allowed for the public, much less sold for $12k. This is like defending an early electric company that is deploying lines all over the place and risks shocking people while not working at all.

New things are inherently riskier than old things. How do you expect to see progress without experimentation and short feedback cycles?

There are ways to make new things safely without selling a technology that absolutely doesn't work to the public. What Waymo and Cruise are doing for example in this case
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