Why is every one of these events "long overdue"? We are long overdue for huge earthquake in California, big volcano, huge asteroid, etc. Where is this notebook that lists these catastrophic events that are supposed to occur on some sort of regular timetable?
The Black Sky Event
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Re: The Black Sky Event
#12Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, the idea is that most people will run out of basic supplies 2 weeks into the blackout, which will force everyone to turn to violence to survive. I agree that 2 days is not a big deal. In a dying society like that however, it will be almost impossible to allocate labor to fix issues that caused the blackout, because as time goes on, violence on the streets increases. Weeks on end without food, water, heat, sanit…
My point is that a blackout won't last 2 weeks unless you've got major structural damage to the electrical system. We had a dang near worst case scenario (of no damage) and it was only 2 days Also, I present Hurricane Maria hitting Puerto Rico as hard evidence that when the power is out for 2 weeks the society doesn't descend into violence
It would take months to replace some of the larger transformers, if they were destroyed by EMP or coordinated sabotage. And, there aren’t many spares available - lead time is very long.
Re: The Black Sky Event
#13what they are describing is not possible. too much redundancy an decentralization. at worst it would be a few cities temporarily
Re: The Black Sky Event
#14Why is every one of these events "long overdue"? We are long overdue for huge earthquake in California, big volcano, huge asteroid, etc. Where is this notebook that lists these catastrophic events that are supposed to occur on some sort of regular timetable?
[deleted]
Re: The Black Sky Event
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
My point is that a blackout won't last 2 weeks unless you've got major structural damage to the electrical system. We had a dang near worst case scenario (of no damage) and it was only 2 days Also, I present Hurricane Maria hitting Puerto Rico as hard evidence that when the power is out for 2 weeks the society doesn't descend into violence
Well, when you are able to pull in labor, food and other supplies from the unaffected areas, it's a much different scenario. In the event where the entire US goes into the blackout for 2 weeks, things will be different. Sure, maybe not an apocalyptic anarchy on the streets, but there will be unrest. Because most people don't have extensive food and water reserves at the place of their residence. The larger point I wa…
The entire US physically cannot have one big blackout. There are 3 separate interconnects: East, West, and Texas. There are DC ties which connect them, but even if the tie was left open it's not enough to cascade the blackout.
To your larger point: sure if power was out over large swaths of the US for weeks on end, things would be difficult. But the power outage wouldn't be the problem, the problem would be whoever is causing the power to keep going back out (or the radioactive fallout from a nuclear war in the EMP scenario)
Re: The Black Sky Event
#16In 2003 there was a major blackout that started in Ohio and took out the power grid for most of Ohio east to New York and up into Ontario. Around 55 million people lost power. This is the same as a hypothetical EMP (blackouts without structural damage) because there is no real EMP, just a full on nuclear bomb. Within 2 days the entire grid was back up like nothing happened. No civilization collapsed. This is fear mon…
If I recall correctly the reason for that blackout was faulty desing of appliances. In particular, old home appliances like dish washers were spitting out out-of-phase electricity back into the network which if done in sufficient numbers collapses the grid. As a result of that event regulation was introduced to prevent this but I don't remember how
Re: The Black Sky Event
#17Maybe there is a solar flare incident that causes it, but as it relates to a cyber or EMP attack destabilizing a country into cannibalistic chaos - it isn't really in anyones interest, as most strategic policymakers understand that you get something much worse than the devil you know when you do. Even destabilizing so-called "minor" powers like Iraq, Libya, and Syria created international terror cells and radicalized sympathetic groups on every continent. It's a recipe for hell.
If an attack took out the whole US grid in an irrepairable way, the power vacuum would cause huge wars around the globe, and it would cost the aggressor at least a couple of major cities from a nuclear strike response. It would also cause mass casulties from refugee inflows taking advantage of the chaos. There would be so much death it's just statistics at that point - it's just not a rational decision for an aggressor country to cause an EMP or to leverage it. Imagine trying to occupy a country that had been EMP'd? It would be like 100 Afghanistans and a thousand Vietnams, just in America. In that total failure situation, everyone is going to die of starvation or infection and disease, so responding with violence at that stage to mitigate it is a relative mercy.
Understanding those consequences of destroying civiliztion, if I were a national leader, I wouldn't hesitate to order that counter strike, and I am sure the actual leaders apprehend that logic as well. If there were a question of attribution, the first one to move against our allies would have to lose their capitol. Aggressors only understand costs, and failure to impose them is an invitation . This Mutually Assured Destruction is the worst, but only guarantee against an EMP attack.
If it were a solar event, nations would still have to protect allies militarily, and I don't see anyone benefiting from the chaos enough to let it sustain, especially when the rational actors will escalate apocalyptic violence until some order is restored. Grim thoughts, but oddly hopeful because I think if people understand the inevitable horrific alternatives to keeping it together, we will have ample incentive to do so.
Re: The Black Sky Event
#18Lloyd’s has an (older; from 2013) analysis that is an interesting read:
https://assets.lloyds.com/assets/pdf-solar-storm-risk-to-the...
Re: The Black Sky Event
#19In 2003 there was a major blackout that started in Ohio and took out the power grid for most of Ohio east to New York and up into Ontario. Around 55 million people lost power. This is the same as a hypothetical EMP (blackouts without structural damage) because there is no real EMP, just a full on nuclear bomb. Within 2 days the entire grid was back up like nothing happened. No civilization collapsed. This is fear mon…
> No civilization collapsed
The fear mongers would have you believe that we're just one glitch away from the destruction of civilization, widespread violence and cannibalism in your cul-de-sac.
But we have major catastrophes fairly often, and time after time we see people helping people, not purging them.
Re: The Black Sky Event
#20what they are describing is not possible. too much redundancy an decentralization. at worst it would be a few cities temporarily
A carrington event could do it...lots of estimates at 2 years to recover from one....
2 years without a supply chain, grocery stores, etc... of course that would equally affect our enemies abroad.
If any enemy abroad did it...we'd probably be ready to surrender in a month if they just provide food and supplies for the 3rd world country that used to be America.