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VC Part 2: Fuck-off Money

danielharan.com

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Re: VC Part 2: Fuck-off Money

#12
post #5

The point he makes is good, but the calculation seems wrong. He's using odds interchangeably with percent ownership , when the two are clearly different. 50% odds of making $1 million = you have a 50/50 chance of walking away from the company with $1 million at some point -- not that you're guaranteed to walk away with $500K. You could just as easily walk away with $0. So if your two options are: 1) 50% odds of makin…

there are two sets of percentages in the article, they just happen to be the same. 50% ownership in a company with a 50% chance of making $1 million, versus 20% ownership in a company with a 20% chance of making $20 million. using the same percentages for both thing is maybe a little confusing, and it's not explained terribly well. the numbers are really immaterial to his point -- going for short money on good odds i…

He doesn't talk about ownership, those are "expected value" calculations: basically, how much you would expect to make per deal if you did 100+ of these deals.

Re: VC Part 2: Fuck-off Money

#15

to answer the article's question: $440k. done. here's the rationale: $200k pays off all the debt i have: mortgage, car, everything, and should leave me with $50K in a working capital cushion. i would continue to work on something, because i'd go crazy if i didn't, but it'd likely be another startup idea of some sort. maybe work on student incubation. $240k goes in a ladder of 1 year certificates of deposit at $20k ea…

The word inflation is conspicuously missing from your analysis. There's a reason why people bother with stocks instead of just plopping all their money in CDs.

(You could buy inflation-adjusted bonds. Last I heard, though, they were running slightly negative yields because of all the other people who want to buy inflation-adjusted bonds.)

The other problem I see here is that this is a steady-state analysis. If you sustain one event that requires you to deplete your capital (like, say, a sudden surge in inflation, a sudden fall in interest rates or market values, an illness... or, god forbid, you decide to get married or have a kid or move to a nicer house) you will immediately suffer an income hit that will require you to go back to work. You should consider budgeting for such things.

Having said that: If you have the discipline to follow this plan, minor holes and all, you'll be in better financial shape than the vast majority of the planet.

(Obligatory investment-book recommendation: William Bernstein, The Four Pillars of Investing.)

Re: VC Part 2: Fuck-off Money

#16

to answer the article's question: $440k. done. here's the rationale: $200k pays off all the debt i have: mortgage, car, everything, and should leave me with $50K in a working capital cushion. i would continue to work on something, because i'd go crazy if i didn't, but it'd likely be another startup idea of some sort. maybe work on student incubation. $240k goes in a ladder of 1 year certificates of deposit at $20k ea…

... certificates of deposit at $20k each. at around ~4% interest, each one will yield an income of ~$800/month.

Shouldn't that be "each one will yield $800/year"? That makes the total $800/month.

Re: VC Part 2: Fuck-off Money

#17

to answer the article's question: $440k. done. here's the rationale: $200k pays off all the debt i have: mortgage, car, everything, and should leave me with $50K in a working capital cushion. i would continue to work on something, because i'd go crazy if i didn't, but it'd likely be another startup idea of some sort. maybe work on student incubation. $240k goes in a ladder of 1 year certificates of deposit at $20k ea…

... certificates of deposit at $20k each. at around ~4% interest, each one will yield an income of ~$800/month. Shouldn't that be "each one will yield $800/year"? That makes the total $800/month.

[deleted]

Re: VC Part 2: Fuck-off Money

#20
Why are you trying to talk about "the least amount of money I can get in order to get by"?

I don't really understand this whole "my odds of doing something really small are high, so f* you all, I'm doing that. F* VCs, f* the world, f* working a lot."

That's a terrible attitude if you actually are in this because you enjoy it and want to make a meaningful contribution to society, and not just make some petty money.

And I can already feel the downvotes. Everyone angry at Mr. Cynical because he crashed the "F* VCS!" rally.

In the words of 8Ball and MJG: "Yo stupid ass ain't gone live twice. If you do anything, do it big. If you do it small, do it big."

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