Omicron Update, Dec 2 • Hacker News Board

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#11

Post by sjwalter » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:21 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #6

spaniard89277 wrote: post #3

Well if Rt is ~3 I guess we're going to have another ride in Spain. I don't think this country can handle another lockdown. In my region people is pretty sensible about mask use etc. We relaxed a bit, but people still take care. I've been to Madrid and Barcelona for work and people behaves like this never happened. I hope I get a chance to a boost shot, because I know a couple of dudes that got covid and the side eff…

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

They're only arbitrary and pointless if you believe the goal is public health.

Imagine seeing what's going on in eg Australia and still thinking this is about a virus!

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#12

Post by spaniard89277 » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:21 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #6

spaniard89277 wrote: post #3

Well if Rt is ~3 I guess we're going to have another ride in Spain. I don't think this country can handle another lockdown. In my region people is pretty sensible about mask use etc. We relaxed a bit, but people still take care. I've been to Madrid and Barcelona for work and people behaves like this never happened. I hope I get a chance to a boost shot, because I know a couple of dudes that got covid and the side eff…

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Well, it helped to aleviate the collapse of hospitals here. They were late so hospitals collapsed anyway, but could have been worse.

It's just a question of timing. Late for Madrid, nicely timed for my city.

Another new problem I see is that healthcare personnel is burnt-out. Not only because of the insane work-hours and all the jazz, they feel mistreated by politicians and society in general, and I have doubts that if they get called for a new emergency they'll go contribute in the same numbers.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#13

Post by sjwalter » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:22 PM UTC

zamalek wrote: post #10

adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Sweden did a nationwide study, it didn't end well.[1] Several of the bad variants also originated from countries which did not participate in full lockdown (India, Brazil). Edit: if Omicron becomes a second 2020, I'd pay close attention to how Sweden reacts, given their recent experiences. [1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-covid-no-lockdown-str...

And omicron arose in vaccinated people and traveled the world in the respiratory tracts of the fully vaxxed.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#14

Post by rossdavidh » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:22 PM UTC

The graph showing Omicron outcompeting Delta is, I think, actually good news. The worse condition would be if they don't even compete, i.e. Omicron was so different that having either Delta or Omicron wouldn't make you immune from the other. The pretty abrupt decline in Delta as Omicron ramps up, suggests pretty strongly that they do compete.

I think this one might be The One. Everyone will be immune soon, perhaps, one way or the other. But if Omicron and Delta compete, then it seems plausible that the existing vaccines would at least help a bit with the severity of symptoms.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#15

Post by shmatt » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:22 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #6

spaniard89277 wrote: post #3

Well if Rt is ~3 I guess we're going to have another ride in Spain. I don't think this country can handle another lockdown. In my region people is pretty sensible about mask use etc. We relaxed a bit, but people still take care. I've been to Madrid and Barcelona for work and people behaves like this never happened. I hope I get a chance to a boost shot, because I know a couple of dudes that got covid and the side eff…

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Not an official study but just an observation - its very possible to avoid lockdowns so far, by implementing true vaccine passports. Israel did that without any shutdowns during the 4th wave. Basically banning non-vaccinated people from most public areas

and by true, that means something you can actually validate isn't fake, while checking for ID at the same time. And also not allowing in un-vaccinated children because of fairness. Deadly viruses do not care about fairness

At least here in NY, USA - I have my vaccine passport checked very often, but verified with my ID about 10% of the time. So that wouldn't have the same effect

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#16

Post by sirkent » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:22 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #6

spaniard89277 wrote: post #3

Well if Rt is ~3 I guess we're going to have another ride in Spain. I don't think this country can handle another lockdown. In my region people is pretty sensible about mask use etc. We relaxed a bit, but people still take care. I've been to Madrid and Barcelona for work and people behaves like this never happened. I hope I get a chance to a boost shot, because I know a couple of dudes that got covid and the side eff…

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

My understanding is that a lockdown is only supposed to slow the spread and alleviate pressure on health services so that they are not overwhelmed. We saw what happens when they are overwhelmed in India - Many more people die that could have been saved.

So to answer your question, you would have to define 'objectively better'. Are you referring to economic outcomes, number of deaths or some other measurement?

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#17

Post by shin_lao » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:23 PM UTC

adam_arthur wrote: post #6

spaniard89277 wrote: post #3

Well if Rt is ~3 I guess we're going to have another ride in Spain. I don't think this country can handle another lockdown. In my region people is pretty sensible about mask use etc. We relaxed a bit, but people still take care. I've been to Madrid and Barcelona for work and people behaves like this never happened. I hope I get a chance to a boost shot, because I know a couple of dudes that got covid and the side eff…

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Imagine if the conclusion is "the lockdowns were useless".

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#18

Post by christmm » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:23 PM UTC

I find that the most relevant information is given by Dr Fauci. Everyone needs to trust the science and Dr Fauci, and stop reading anything else when we know the rest is misinformation.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#19

Post by shmatt » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:23 PM UTC

sjwalter wrote: post #13

zamalek wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden did a nationwide study, it didn't end well.[1] Several of the bad variants also originated from countries which did not participate in full lockdown (India, Brazil). Edit: if Omicron becomes a second 2020, I'd pay close attention to how Sweden reacts, given their recent experiences. [1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-covid-no-lockdown-str...

And omicron arose in vaccinated people and traveled the world in the respiratory tracts of the fully vaxxed.

SA is only 25% vaxxed. Perfect ground for new mutations

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#20

Post by adam_arthur » Thu, Dec 02, 2021, 2:24 PM UTC

zamalek wrote: post #10

adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Sweden did a nationwide study, it didn't end well.[1] Several of the bad variants also originated from countries which did not participate in full lockdown (India, Brazil). Edit: if Omicron becomes a second 2020, I'd pay close attention to how Sweden reacts, given their recent experiences. [1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-covid-no-lockdown-str...

That seems dated. Deaths per million is higher in many countries with significantly stricter lockdowns like Spain and Italy.

There are of course density, age, and other differences to consider.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat...