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Why Are Electric Vehicle Companies Worth So Much Money?

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Re: Why Are Electric Vehicle Companies Worth So Much Money?

#11

Post by 542354234235 »

GDC7 wrote: post #4

Boys love for cars begins at 2 and never ends. EVs became a meme for revolutionizing the car industry in a way people perceive will be as profound as Karl Benz first car or Ford Model T. So naturally boys of every age want to be part of this movement and pump their savings (as well as their clients savings) into EV companies, even though manufacturing is a terrible business. Everything market related it's about meme…

>Cars, rockets, missiles, planes, bombs , they all fall under the same umbrella of toys.

Well, I just decided that building an artificial heart or defeating Parkinson or Alzheimer's, curing diabetes, solving cancer are under the umbrella of hobbies. Why should people be so preoccupied with hobbies? Hobbies have their place but it seems silly to dedicate ones life on something as trivial as a hobby.

Re: Why Are Electric Vehicle Companies Worth So Much Money?

#12

Post by GDC7 »

bigbillheck wrote: post #9
GDC7 wrote: post #4

Boys love for cars begins at 2 and never ends. EVs became a meme for revolutionizing the car industry in a way people perceive will be as profound as Karl Benz first car or Ford Model T. So naturally boys of every age want to be part of this movement and pump their savings (as well as their clients savings) into EV companies, even though manufacturing is a terrible business. Everything market related it's about meme…

> Boys love for cars begins at 2 and never ends. Just think of all the billions of dudes who lived and died unfulfilled before the invention of the automobile.

It’s way less than a billion

Plus given that they are dead I can’t see why their brains and hearts are material to the success of EV STOCKS.

The dead can’t buy stocks

Re: Why Are Electric Vehicle Companies Worth So Much Money?

#13

Post by Clockface12 »

Hermitian909 wrote: post #7
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the transition itself is that hard, but they've not really shown any enthusiasm for it so far, so you have to gamble that they even try before they hit a wall and go bust. So it's more a human problem. Is it possible to be the hero who transforms a company and get rich doing it? Or do you basically have to make a lot of enemies to do the right thing and get no more money than if you just kept your head…

Disclaimer, I work for Toyota, opinions my own. > Is it possible to be the hero who transforms a company and get rich doing it? Or do you basically have to make a lot of enemies to do the right thing and get no more money than if you just kept your head down while looking for a job at a competitor. You might get rich transforming the company, but you certainly will make a lot of enemies. Everyone at these car compani…

Exactly. It's surely significant that Tesla has overtaken all the incumbents and now has the greatest market share in plug-in electric vehicles (i.e. plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles combined):

https://www.statista.com/statistics/541390/global-sales-of-p...

Not long ago, the incumbents ridiculed Tesla and did their best to publicise various teething problems at Tesla .. production delays, fit-and-finish issues, etc.

That's a human reaction from people who've invested their whole careers into building IC engines. But it's precisely indicative of foot dragging: rather than focusing on leveraging their greater manufacturing expertise in the fight for EV market share, they underestimated the challenge coming their way.

Re: Why Are Electric Vehicle Companies Worth So Much Money?

#14

Post by bell-cot »

Hermitian909 wrote: post #7
ZeroGravitas wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the transition itself is that hard, but they've not really shown any enthusiasm for it so far, so you have to gamble that they even try before they hit a wall and go bust. So it's more a human problem. Is it possible to be the hero who transforms a company and get rich doing it? Or do you basically have to make a lot of enemies to do the right thing and get no more money than if you just kept your head…

Disclaimer, I work for Toyota, opinions my own. > Is it possible to be the hero who transforms a company and get rich doing it? Or do you basically have to make a lot of enemies to do the right thing and get no more money than if you just kept your head down while looking for a job at a competitor. You might get rich transforming the company, but you certainly will make a lot of enemies. Everyone at these car compani…

This seems a decent explanation for Honda's plans to (possibly) expand into producing rocket engines & rockets. At least at more-junior levels of combustion engineering.

Re: Why Are Electric Vehicle Companies Worth So Much Money?

#15

Post by GDC7 »

542354234235 wrote: post #11
GDC7 wrote: post #4

Boys love for cars begins at 2 and never ends. EVs became a meme for revolutionizing the car industry in a way people perceive will be as profound as Karl Benz first car or Ford Model T. So naturally boys of every age want to be part of this movement and pump their savings (as well as their clients savings) into EV companies, even though manufacturing is a terrible business. Everything market related it's about meme…

>Cars, rockets, missiles, planes, bombs , they all fall under the same umbrella of toys. Well, I just decided that building an artificial heart or defeating Parkinson or Alzheimer's, curing diabetes, solving cancer are under the umbrella of hobbies. Why should people be so preoccupied with hobbies? Hobbies have their place but it seems silly to dedicate ones life on something as trivial as a hobby.

> Well, I just decided that building an artificial heart or defeating Parkinson or Alzheimer's, curing diabetes, solving cancer are under the umbrella of hobbies

They fall under the umbrella of survival, because as things stands today , you know that one of those things will eventually be the thing which gets you . Very much like Feynman and Von Neumann knew too, but decided to dedicate the practical part of their theoretical skills to building a toy such as the atomic bomb

Re: Why Are Electric Vehicle Companies Worth So Much Money?

#16

Post by Hermitian909 »

Clockface12 wrote: post #13
Hermitian909 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclaimer, I work for Toyota, opinions my own. > Is it possible to be the hero who transforms a company and get rich doing it? Or do you basically have to make a lot of enemies to do the right thing and get no more money than if you just kept your head down while looking for a job at a competitor. You might get rich transforming the company, but you certainly will make a lot of enemies. Everyone at these car compani…

Exactly. It's surely significant that Tesla has overtaken all the incumbents and now has the greatest market share in plug-in electric vehicles (i.e. plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles combined): https://www.statista.com/statistics/541390/global-sales-of-p... Not long ago, the incumbents ridiculed Tesla and did their best to publicise various teething problems at Tesla .. production delays, fit-and-finish…

> Rather than focusing on leveraging their greater manufacturing expertise in the fight for EV market share, they underestimated the challenge coming their way.

I think this phrasing paints people at these companies as being dumber or less perceptive than they are. People are simply acting in their own best interest rather than the company's. People absolutely downplay the EV threat beyond what they believe in order to further their own interests.

I would also say some of the foot dragging is just leadership not having limited capacity to think about different things. Leadership needs to keep an eye on all the existing supply chain and manufacturing stuff while also managing the EV side closely enough to be able to understand the benefits of different initiatives.

Re: Why Are Electric Vehicle Companies Worth So Much Money?

#17

Post by mullingitover »

bni wrote: post #6
Clockface12 wrote: post #2

One of the quoted experts opines that while some of the big established car manufacturers will survive, most “are running an uphill race with a parachute behind them while EV-first firms are sledding downhill.” I think they have a point – existing manufacturers will have to spend a lot of time and energy divesting themselves of all the plants and workforce that will become useless, and/or converting and retooling fac…

I think some established will do just fine. Volkswagen and their sub-brands seems to be doing fine here in Europe. They are quite competitive with Teslas more "affordable" options. Super cheap EVs from Chinas companies will for sure disrupt in the lower end but not everyone will want something like that.

Disruption at the lower end doesn't stay there. Just ask the American auto industry about their experience ignoring the super cheap Japanese cars in the 70s.

Re: Why Are Electric Vehicle Companies Worth So Much Money?

#18

Post by Clockface12 »

Hermitian909 wrote: post #16
Clockface12 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. It's surely significant that Tesla has overtaken all the incumbents and now has the greatest market share in plug-in electric vehicles (i.e. plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles combined): https://www.statista.com/statistics/541390/global-sales-of-p... Not long ago, the incumbents ridiculed Tesla and did their best to publicise various teething problems at Tesla .. production delays, fit-and-finish…

> Rather than focusing on leveraging their greater manufacturing expertise in the fight for EV market share, they underestimated the challenge coming their way. I think this phrasing paints people at these companies as being dumber or less perceptive than they are. People are simply acting in their own best interest rather than the company's. People absolutely downplay the EV threat beyond what they believe in order…

You're right about people simply acting in a way they think will serve their personal interests, and it's a nice distinction. Thank you. Another aspect of legacy holding companies back.

Re: Why Are Electric Vehicle Companies Worth So Much Money?

#19

Post by bigbillheck »

GDC7 wrote: post #12
bigbillheck wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Boys love for cars begins at 2 and never ends. Just think of all the billions of dudes who lived and died unfulfilled before the invention of the automobile.

It’s way less than a billion Plus given that they are dead I can’t see why their brains and hearts are material to the success of EV STOCKS. The dead can’t buy stocks

(a) Not according to https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-populat... it isn't. Assuming no centenarians and adding up the populations every 100 years from 200 to 1804 I get 4.6 billion people, of whom we can assume more or less half--so 2.3 billion--are guys. Drop out a generous ten percent for non-binary and assume AMAB is balanced with AFAB and that's still over two billion, which I consider good enough for 'billions, plural'. You did say 'begins at 2', and you might think this would put a crimp in the analysis, but at this kind of nit-pickery I'll point out that by 1850 there was another 200 million people (net) to offset early childhood mortality.

Anyway who's talking about stocks, I'm talking about dudes and their 'love for cars [that] begins at 2 and never ends'.

Re: Why Are Electric Vehicle Companies Worth So Much Money?

#20

Post by OneTimePetes »

The will eat the cakes of existing car companies.

The race starts a new, and the technological advances of the previous years have been annihilated. Add to that, that the new value generator in cars is clearly software- a field were the old car companies have shown no expertise and voila.

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