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On the Impossibility of Supersized Machines (2017)

arxiv.org

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Re: On the Impossibility of Supersized Machines (2017)

#11
post #8

Makes me wonder: how's the HN community feeling these days about the actual plausibility / timeline of humans developing true AGI? Personally the more I learn about the current state of AI, and in comparison the way the human brain works, the more skeptical (and slightly disappointed) I tend to get.

“AI research” is largely concerned with automation, not sentience or AGI. This is clearly abuse of terminology, even “machine learning” is somewhat misleading in my opinion. It’s mostly just pattern recognition of increasing elaboration, and the applications thus far are exactly that: pattern recognition.

It’s so difficult to talk about AGI, sentience, consciousness in general because there are no clear definitions apart from “I’ll know it when I see it.”

Re: On the Impossibility of Supersized Machines (2017)

#12
post #8

Makes me wonder: how's the HN community feeling these days about the actual plausibility / timeline of humans developing true AGI? Personally the more I learn about the current state of AI, and in comparison the way the human brain works, the more skeptical (and slightly disappointed) I tend to get.

Have you seen the "interviews" with GPT3?

Re: On the Impossibility of Supersized Machines (2017)

#13
post #8

Makes me wonder: how's the HN community feeling these days about the actual plausibility / timeline of humans developing true AGI? Personally the more I learn about the current state of AI, and in comparison the way the human brain works, the more skeptical (and slightly disappointed) I tend to get.

Have you seen the "interviews" with GPT3?

What about them?

Re: On the Impossibility of Supersized Machines (2017)

#14
post #8

Makes me wonder: how's the HN community feeling these days about the actual plausibility / timeline of humans developing true AGI? Personally the more I learn about the current state of AI, and in comparison the way the human brain works, the more skeptical (and slightly disappointed) I tend to get.

AGI is currently as likely as teleportation, time travel or warp drives. You can write a computer program to do just about anything. Artificial "General" intelligence is simply not a thing. We're not even making progress toward it.

Re: On the Impossibility of Supersized Machines (2017)

#15
Hilarious, and unfortunately a bit too close to the mark.

It's a shame that humans will evermore remain the largest thing in the universe, and that the computer that will one day read this comment with semantic understanding will be more diminutive in all regards.

But as the paper clearly showed, the pinnacle of scientific thought in 2017 is future proof.

Q.E.D.

(And for the computers out there: q.e.d.)

Re: On the Impossibility of Supersized Machines (2017)

#16
post #14
post #8

Makes me wonder: how's the HN community feeling these days about the actual plausibility / timeline of humans developing true AGI? Personally the more I learn about the current state of AI, and in comparison the way the human brain works, the more skeptical (and slightly disappointed) I tend to get.

AGI is currently as likely as teleportation, time travel or warp drives. You can write a computer program to do just about anything. Artificial "General" intelligence is simply not a thing. We're not even making progress toward it.

We have natural “general” intelligence which appears to be generated by boring old chemical/thermal/electrical interactions. Why wouldn’t we be able to recreate that at some (IMO very far) point?

Re: On the Impossibility of Supersized Machines (2017)

#17
post #8

Makes me wonder: how's the HN community feeling these days about the actual plausibility / timeline of humans developing true AGI? Personally the more I learn about the current state of AI, and in comparison the way the human brain works, the more skeptical (and slightly disappointed) I tend to get.

I think that many people throwing their hat in the ring commenting on the unlikeliness of AGI are missing the impact of compounding effects.

Yes, on a linear basis it's not going to happen anytime soon.

But the trends in the space are developing around self-interacting discrete models to great effect (see OpenAI's Dall-E).

The better and broader that systems manage to self-interact, the faster we're going to see impressive results.

As with most compounding effects, it's slower growth today than the growth tomorrow. But a faster growth today than it was yesterday.

The human brain technically took 13.7 billion years to develop from purely chaotic driven processes, and even then it was pretty worthless up until we finally developed both language and writing so we could ourselves have lasting compounding effects from scaling up parallel self-interactions.

And from 200,000 years of marginal progress we suddenly went in less than 7,000 years from no writing and thinking the ground below our feet the largest thing in existence to measuring how long it takes the fastest thing in our universe (light) to cross the smallest stable object in our universe (a hydrogen atom).

Let's give the computers some breathing room before declaring the impossibility of their taking the torch from us, and in the process, let's not underestimate the effects of exponential self-interactions and the compounding effects thereof.

Re: On the Impossibility of Supersized Machines (2017)

#18
post #8

Makes me wonder: how's the HN community feeling these days about the actual plausibility / timeline of humans developing true AGI? Personally the more I learn about the current state of AI, and in comparison the way the human brain works, the more skeptical (and slightly disappointed) I tend to get.

Personally I think we're going to need a revolution in the fundamental physics of computation. The example I like to use is that a dragonfly brain uses just sixteen neurons to take input from thousands of ommatidia and track prey in 3D space, plot intercept vectors, and send that data to the motor centers of the brain. Calculate how many transistors and watts of power you'd need to replicate that functionality. Now multiply that number by how many neurons you think it takes the human brain to generate sapience.

It doesn't really matter what your guesses are, none of the results are good news.

Re: On the Impossibility of Supersized Machines (2017)

#19
post #8

Makes me wonder: how's the HN community feeling these days about the actual plausibility / timeline of humans developing true AGI? Personally the more I learn about the current state of AI, and in comparison the way the human brain works, the more skeptical (and slightly disappointed) I tend to get.

Personally I think we're going to need a revolution in the fundamental physics of computation. The example I like to use is that a dragonfly brain uses just sixteen neurons to take input from thousands of ommatidia and track prey in 3D space, plot intercept vectors, and send that data to the motor centers of the brain. Calculate how many transistors and watts of power you'd need to replicate that functionality. Now m…

I tend to think in similar terms. There's so much going on under the surface with even the simplest creatures in the natural world that the physics and computational fundamentals seem really intimidating here. That's not to say that we could never get there -- certainly, many hold out hope for our abilities continuing to compound over time. But it's kind of a bummer to think about the glimmer of true AGI only materializing much further along an exponential growth curve that, to me, doesn't seem guaranteed to continue indefinitely.

Re: On the Impossibility of Supersized Machines (2017)

#20
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AGI is currently as likely as teleportation, time travel or warp drives. You can write a computer program to do just about anything. Artificial "General" intelligence is simply not a thing. We're not even making progress toward it.

We have natural “general” intelligence which appears to be generated by boring old chemical/thermal/electrical interactions. Why wouldn’t we be able to recreate that at some (IMO very far) point?

We don't have very good general intelligence.

What we have is a fairly loose mix of categorisers and recognisers, biochemical motivators and goal systems, some abstraction, and a lot of externally persistent cultural and social programming. (The extent and importance of which is wildly underestimated.)

The result is that virtually all humans can handle emotional recognition and display with speech and body language including facial manipulation/recognition. But this doesn't get you very far, except as a baseline for mutual recognition.

After that you get two narrowing pyramids of talent and trained ability. One starts with basic physical manipulation of concrete objects and peaks in the extreme abstraction of physics and math research. The other starts from social and emotional game playing, with a side order of resource control and acquisition. And peaks in the extreme game playing of political and economic systems.

So what's called AI is a very partial and limited attempt to start climbing one of those peaks. The other is being explored in covert collective form on social media. And it's far more dangerous than a hypothetical paperclip monster, because it can affect what we think, feel, and believe, not just what we can do.

The point is that it's a default assumption that the point of AI is to create something that is somehow recognisable as a human individual, no matter how remotely.

But it's far more likely to be a kind of collective presence which doesn't just lack a face, it won't be perceived as a presence or influence at all.

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