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US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

theguardian.com

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Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#11

People need to decide whether they think this is because of supply chain issues and the demand spike following COVID or if it's because of the Fed.

Aren't more products being bought than ever despite the supposed supply chain issue? If there is more stuff and still not enough then shouldn't we assume that there is too much money? It looks like standard inflation by a devaluing of the dollar to me.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#12
post #5

The ongoing supply-demand imbalance that is contributing to rising inflation worldwide is in my view the most pressing short-term problem that needs to be solved by hackers, engineers, and entrepreneurs today.[a] We need more people doing what Flexport's Ryan Petersen did with LA ports[a]: Figure out quick, cost-efficient ways to get our current system out of its currently degraded state and back to operating smoothl…

How does degraded supply chain throughput connect to inflation?

When there are supply-demand imbalances, e.g., people in France having to wait three months to get a new boiler versus 24-48 hours before the pandemic[a], the price of newly installed boilers in France tends to increase sharply. For a more general answer, see:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand-pull_inflation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost-push_inflation

--

[a] https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Which-products-a...

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#13
I've mentioned before [1] but these prices still don't seem that serious. Most prices have still not beat their highs made in 2008-2014 (crude oil, global energy price, eggs, milk, sugar, rice, chicken, pork chops). Ground beef is an outlier, however. And US price per kwh is back at its peak, though it declined in these October numbers to be below... 2014 numbers again. [2]

So while the climb up is bad, the prices themselves aren't even unprecedented. In lieu of an extraordinary global supply chain crisis, these numbers actually seem impressively low. We cocked up everything for a year and prices finally shot back to... prices from 7 years ago?

If fed policy has any effect at all, I think we owe them one for being so cool-headed and non-drastic these past two years. They're doing much better than politicians or the media, at least.

[1] I have some commentary here, and more in a reply to user `anm89` https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29114086

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#15

People need to decide whether they think this is because of supply chain issues and the demand spike following COVID or if it's because of the Fed.

Aren't more products being bought than ever despite the supposed supply chain issue? If there is more stuff and still not enough then shouldn't we assume that there is too much money? It looks like standard inflation by a devaluing of the dollar to me.

> Aren't more products being bought than ever despite the supposed supply chain issue? If there is more stuff and still not enough then shouldn't we assume that there is too much money?

This doesn't rule out a "demand spike following COVID" as mentioned by the parent. It's like a cartoon where someone (COVID) steps on the hose and a big bulge of water (demand + extra savings) forms. Now that bulge is working its way through the economy causing shortages (analogy completely falls apart here).

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't more products being bought than ever despite the supposed supply chain issue? If there is more stuff and still not enough then shouldn't we assume that there is too much money? It looks like standard inflation by a devaluing of the dollar to me.

> Aren't more products being bought than ever despite the supposed supply chain issue? If there is more stuff and still not enough then shouldn't we assume that there is too much money? This doesn't rule out a "demand spike following COVID" as mentioned by the parent. It's like a cartoon where someone (COVID) steps on the hose and a big bulge of water (demand + extra savings) forms. Now that bulge is working its way…

The snake swallowing an elephant theory of the price level would explain a one time increase in the price level, but not higher constant inflation, and certainly not an increasing rate of inflation.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#17
Interest rates really should have went up a couple of years ago. Not just for the sake of stemming inflation, but what good is the tool of lower rates in bad times when they are already at bottom in good times?

If something goes wrong (or more wrong) we will have no effective economic tools available because they are constantly running as if we are in crisis already.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#18

Interest rates really should have went up a couple of years ago. Not just for the sake of stemming inflation, but what good is the tool of lower rates in bad times when they are already at bottom in good times? If something goes wrong (or more wrong) we will have no effective economic tools available because they are constantly running as if we are in crisis already.

Nobody wants to be the next Jimmy Carter who lets the fed raise interest rates to stem inflation because it invariably triggers a recession that gets said president and his party voted out of office. So rates will stay perpetually low.

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#19

People need to decide whether they think this is because of supply chain issues and the demand spike following COVID or if it's because of the Fed.

It's incredible. It's the same strategy that some politicians use in Argentina: they find any kind of thing to blame for inflation, except for monetary policy. Americans, please don't imitate Argentina, keep a healthy economy.

I know that if Red Team had won the election Blue Team would be running news stories every day about the dangers of inflation and how it is hurting the middle class. Instead, we are seeing pundits downplay inflation as either something 'transitory' or something beneficial:

"Why the inflation we're seeing now is a good thing" -MSNBC tweet that got deleted.

Edit: "Yes, inflation is back, and you should probably be relieved if not outright happy."

https://www.reuters.com/business/inflation-revival-is-victor...

Re: US inflation jumps to 31-year high amid global supply chain crisis

#20
post #5

The ongoing supply-demand imbalance that is contributing to rising inflation worldwide is in my view the most pressing short-term problem that needs to be solved by hackers, engineers, and entrepreneurs today.[a] We need more people doing what Flexport's Ryan Petersen did with LA ports[a]: Figure out quick, cost-efficient ways to get our current system out of its currently degraded state and back to operating smoothl…

How does degraded supply chain throughput connect to inflation?

Your question using synonyms:

How does reduced supply lead to higher prices?

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