I'm honestly surprised inflation hasn't been worse than what we've already seen. 10-year treasury yields are still well below their 2019 levels and are currently below their levels from Q2 of this year.
It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere
11–20 of 478 posts
Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere
#12WARNING: This site has an obscenely obnoxious terms & conditions blocking modal. I would prefer this link to be removed, it is so egregious. Post something, or don't. Don't put up a blocking modal to force me to read some terms & conditions before reading the actual content.
Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere
#13Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere
#14The email newsletter upsell, however...
Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere
#15For anyone scratching their head on what "MP3" is: monetary policy 3, i.e. "helicopter money," i.e. "the government be handin out them stimmies," i.e. the government injected COVID-19 relief funds into the economy, giving an across-the-board increase in demand for goods & services, but there aren't enough "goods & services" to keep up with this demand.
Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere
#16It's a plausible theory, but it doesn't explain the long queues of container ships waiting to be unloaded.
Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere
#17It's a plausible theory, but it doesn't explain the long queues of container ships waiting to be unloaded.
Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere
#18WARNING: This site has an obscenely obnoxious terms & conditions blocking modal. I would prefer this link to be removed, it is so egregious. Post something, or don't. Don't put up a blocking modal to force me to read some terms & conditions before reading the actual content.
Re: It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere
#19One point that I don't think is made clear. Because this problem is totally artificial, it isn't clear how you solve it. Clearly, prices are going to have to increase substantially to choke off demand. But even once you do that, there is a question in some industries of whether supply can increase at all. Some big industrials are trading on mid-single digit P/E ratios, they just can't get money (most are actually being incentivized to return this, repeat that: shortage of almost everything, the market is telling them...reduce supply urgently). There is a flood of money for "risk-free" investments and tech (read: unprofitable, never going to be profitable but has value because you might be able to convince someone that you will be profitable...eventually), everyone else is being starved to death. It is quite terrifying because the govt has managed to debauch almost every price in the economy. Nothing is working.