Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#11

Post by bcrosby95 » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:19 AM UTC

jsemrau wrote: post #5

Is it really a bubble or is it driven by market demands as more and more applications and use-cases emerge? In the end, a lot of the blockchain infrastructure relies on bitcoin hence it moves in sync. China's real estate market is a bubble because there is a excess of 500 million dwellings that are not needed.

I'm not really in the crypto scene so it's hard for me to tell. But of everyone I know in bitcoin, they just use it as an investment. Sell when it gets too high. Buy when it crashes. Sell it when they need to buy a new car. That's pretty much it.

Maybe they're the minority. But if they aren't, I think there's eventually going to be a rude awakening.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#12

Post by cm2012 » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:21 AM UTC

It has honestly surprised me that a bunch of people I thought were smart really think NFTs are a good long term investment. It clearly has no value beyond speculation and the bubble will pop.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#13

Post by chadcmulligan » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:23 AM UTC

jsemrau wrote: post #5

Is it really a bubble or is it driven by market demands as more and more applications and use-cases emerge? In the end, a lot of the blockchain infrastructure relies on bitcoin hence it moves in sync. China's real estate market is a bubble because there is a excess of 500 million dwellings that are not needed.

> there is a excess of 500 million dwellings

Do you have a reference for this?

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#14

Post by SRTP » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:27 AM UTC

jqpabc123 wrote: post #9

Tether is a fraud and everyone knows it. More than half of all crypto trades involve tether so the fraud is pervasive. But the most damning aspect of all is the fact that despite common knowledge of the pervasive fraud, USDT maintains it's peg. This indicates collusion by the market making exchanges in perpetrating this widespread, pervasive fraud. This essentially makes the entire crypto marketplace as we know it on…

Or - and hear me out here - you're simply misinformed.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#15

Post by rapsey » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:28 AM UTC

gpt5 wrote: post #7

rapsey wrote: post #3

Crypto has never gone through a major economic crisis and when there were short term panics it always dropped significantly. Being without a central bank also means there is no limit to how far it can drop.

To be fair, as regularly seen in smaller economies - regular money also tends to show no limit to how far it can drop during economic crisis.

Crypto is a speculative asset. It was made and promoted itself as money but failed completely in that aspect.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#16

Post by jqpabc123 » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:31 AM UTC

SRTP wrote: post #14

jqpabc123 wrote: post #9

Tether is a fraud and everyone knows it. More than half of all crypto trades involve tether so the fraud is pervasive. But the most damning aspect of all is the fact that despite common knowledge of the pervasive fraud, USDT maintains it's peg. This indicates collusion by the market making exchanges in perpetrating this widespread, pervasive fraud. This essentially makes the entire crypto marketplace as we know it on…

Or - and hear me out here - you're simply misinformed.

If this is really the case and not just an opinion, you should be able to easy show that Tether is not a fraud.

Can you do this? I don't think so because Tether itself has never shown as much.

Calling me "misinformed" without any easily verifiable basis in fact would suggest that perhaps you are a participant in the fraud somehow.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#17

Post by closeparen » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:33 AM UTC

jsemrau wrote: post #5

Is it really a bubble or is it driven by market demands as more and more applications and use-cases emerge? In the end, a lot of the blockchain infrastructure relies on bitcoin hence it moves in sync. China's real estate market is a bubble because there is a excess of 500 million dwellings that are not needed.

It doesn't follow from an application or use case for blockchain technology that I should pay you millions of dollars for the service of having previously owned some Bitcoins. For one thing I could transact on some cheaper altcoin, or make my own. I still have to pay for hashing power and liquidity. Those guys are smart. But their business is competitive and in the long run profits will be thin. Bitcoin's dwindling supply is a clever trick, but in reality the supply of tokens with which to make blockchain transactions is growing all the time.

For another, payments infrastructure is a problem but not a huge problem. There is a ceiling on how much it's worth to solve. And the traditional banking system remains a competitor. Not to say you can't get paid for helping me with a payments problem, but orders of magnitude profit? For such an ancillary contribution of having the currency prior to me (or my customers)? Color me skeptical.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#18

Post by NicoJuicy » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:36 AM UTC

jsemrau wrote: post #5

Is it really a bubble or is it driven by market demands as more and more applications and use-cases emerge? In the end, a lot of the blockchain infrastructure relies on bitcoin hence it moves in sync. China's real estate market is a bubble because there is a excess of 500 million dwellings that are not needed.

Who is actually using it? I know a lot of people that have like 100-200 € in it as an experiment and they spend 0€ .

It's 2017 all over again.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#19

Post by mrfox321 » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:36 AM UTC

jqpabc123 wrote: post #9

Tether is a fraud and everyone knows it. More than half of all crypto trades involve tether so the fraud is pervasive. But the most damning aspect of all is the fact that despite common knowledge of the pervasive fraud, USDT maintains it's peg. This indicates collusion by the market making exchanges in perpetrating this widespread, pervasive fraud. This essentially makes the entire crypto marketplace as we know it on…

As fraudulent as being able to lend at an arbitrary multiple of your reserves.

A run the bank would bring it all down.

Just like in real life.

Re: Why the ‘Big Short’ Guys Think Bitcoin Is a Bubble

#20

Post by raptorraver » Mon, Oct 18, 2021, 4:36 AM UTC

rapsey wrote: post #3

Crypto has never gone through a major economic crisis and when there were short term panics it always dropped significantly. Being without a central bank also means there is no limit to how far it can drop.

Do you mean there haven't been major economic crisis related cryptocurrencies or we don't know what happens to cryptos if (and when) a major, general economic crisis happens in the world? I'm interested in what would happen in the latter case. Probably cryptos would crash even harder but are there cases where people would trust cryptos more than cash in crisis?