There would be war over it.
Line in Ukraine with extensive defense warranties? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...
If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?
11–20 of 48 posts
Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?
#12Some of these responses are really silly. What actually happens is:
- TSMC's foundries stop operating soon because they're not getting new equipment, replacement parts, or supplies to operate the foundry from ASML or anyone else in the West, thanks to the inevitable embargo/sanctions that would follow. Even if the fabs were supplied and operating, nobody would dare send their designs to them to be fabbed anyway.
- TSMC's senior research and engineering staff are either evacuated or, if captured, are less productive than before.
- TSMC's shareholders (you know, the people who actually own the company) work out intellectual property licenses to Samsung and Intel, who are not that far behind TSMC in fab prowess, to raise capital to complete their own fabs in the West.
- Availability of consumer electronics gets extremely tight for several years then life goes on.
Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?
#13No matter what happens to the fabs, China wins either way because they manufacture everything. As the recent crisis showed when push comes to shove China takes care of their internal needs first.
Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?
#14Let me rephrase this: If China takes over Taiwan, how soon can USA build a united force with Japan, Australia, South Korea, probably British, India etc to take it back, like what occurred in Kuwart? This might set all of us back 2 decades but other options will be worse?
Twenty minutes, if I'm allowed some hyperbole. China has been trying to throw their weight around with Australia and none of China's neighbors would be happy with them turning expansionist.
Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?
#15wonder if there's a plan to evac everyone who has crucial know-how abroad, a la Operation Paperclip and its soviet counterpart. If they can move all of the machinery and people out in time( This is taking into account, that the worst has come to happen ). They could setup shop elsewhere in probably under a year.
I don't think there's any chance moving most of that machinery on short notice, what with the incredibly small tolerances and clean-room conditions required in that industry. Here [1] is one EUV source. It's the size of a shipping container. The power source is "so large that it has to be placed on a separate floor". And that's just one tiny (but essential) piece of the puzzle. You would have to somehow bundle it up totally airtight, get it to the port, and safely across the ocean through an enemy blockade. Possibly while troops are landing at the beaches, and planes are bombing you.
The personnel seem a bit more possible, though I'm sure China would not be interested in its most economically productive "citizens" fleeing, so it probably wouldn't allow them through a naval blockade either.
[1] https://www.laserfocusworld.com/blogs/article/14039015/how-d...
Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?
#16No matter what happens to the fabs, China wins either way because they manufacture everything. As the recent crisis showed when push comes to shove China takes care of their internal needs first.
> As the recent crisis showed when push comes to shove China takes care of their internal needs first.
Not sure what you mean by "internal needs", but China is currently suffering mass blackout because China banned Australian coal. Seems to me that China puts its domestic politics in front of people's need.
* Well, at least not burning coal is a massive win for the Earth, so there's that. :/
Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?
#17Some of these responses are really silly. What actually happens is: - TSMC's foundries stop operating soon because they're not getting new equipment, replacement parts, or supplies to operate the foundry from ASML or anyone else in the West, thanks to the inevitable embargo/sanctions that would follow. Even if the fabs were supplied and operating, nobody would dare send their designs to them to be fabbed anyway. - TS…
Maybe this underestimates the complexity in setting up these facilities, the time required, and the skills involved.
Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?
#18Let me rephrase this: If China takes over Taiwan, how soon can USA build a united force with Japan, Australia, South Korea, probably British, India etc to take it back, like what occurred in Kuwart? This might set all of us back 2 decades but other options will be worse?
I guess they are building it now. On top of having a second factory in other places. Slowly though.
Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?
#19Some of these responses are really silly. What actually happens is: - TSMC's foundries stop operating soon because they're not getting new equipment, replacement parts, or supplies to operate the foundry from ASML or anyone else in the West, thanks to the inevitable embargo/sanctions that would follow. Even if the fabs were supplied and operating, nobody would dare send their designs to them to be fabbed anyway. - TS…
easier to just strand a few chinese cargo ships in a few canals
Re: If China takes over Taiwan, what happens to silicon chips?
#20Let me rephrase this: If China takes over Taiwan, how soon can USA build a united force with Japan, Australia, South Korea, probably British, India etc to take it back, like what occurred in Kuwart? This might set all of us back 2 decades but other options will be worse?
A world war would be better than a disruption in the newest generation of chip production?