All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions • Hacker News Board

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#11

Post by philipov » Sat, Sep 25, 2021, 7:32 AM UTC

pdonis wrote: post #3

Subscriptions make sense for things that you get a regular recurring supply of, like milk and newspapers. They might make sense for things that you can get regular upgrades for, like software (although often the "upgrades" aren't really worth much). But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. The whole point with such goods is that you pay once and…

> But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars.

Which is why there is a war on durable goods, such as trying to develop viable cloud gaming to replace people's gaming computers with subscription services.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#12

Post by bullen » Sat, Sep 25, 2021, 7:40 AM UTC

I agree that computer hardware manufacturers need to either build poor quality (selling you a new light bulb every 1000 hours) or rent things out as peak Moores law unfolds, even if some predict the litho to keep getting smaller (EUV) the CPU performance per watt will not increase, mostly because the architecture can't take advantage of the new transistors and random memory speed has been stuck for 20 years.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#13

Post by rolls-reus » Sat, Sep 25, 2021, 7:42 AM UTC

I think the Jetbrains model of perpetual fallback licence and renewals for continuous updates beyond the subscription period is the most fair model for both the user and the developer. Wish more companies would adopt this.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#14

Post by breakingcups » Sat, Sep 25, 2021, 7:43 AM UTC

The title was more intriguing than the article. It seemed a bit incoherent.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#15

Post by pdonis » Sat, Sep 25, 2021, 7:46 AM UTC

onion2k wrote: post #6

pdonis wrote: post #3

Subscriptions make sense for things that you get a regular recurring supply of, like milk and newspapers. They might make sense for things that you can get regular upgrades for, like software (although often the "upgrades" aren't really worth much). But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. The whole point with such goods is that you pay once and…

How it makes sense is simple - people who lease cars don't pay the final payment. They give the car back and lease a new one. That way they pay a bit more for a few years, but they avoid most of the cost of deprecation that they'd lose if they owned the car at that point. If you plan to buy a car and own it for a long time then leasing is silly. If you plan to keep a car for no more than a few years then leasing is a…

> How it makes sense is simple - people who lease cars don't pay the final payment. They give the car back and lease a new one. That way they pay a bit more for a few years, but they avoid most of the cost of deprecation that they'd lose if they owned the car at that point.

If you don't plan to keep the car more than the few years you can get with a lease term, then yes, the comparison is different than the one I made, but what might tip the scales in favor of leasing isn't the depreciation cost but what options are (or aren't) available to you for terminating your old loan (which probably won't be paid off at that point) and getting a new one when you either trade in or sell your old car and buy a new one.

Another downside of leasing is that, since you don't own the car, there are probably going to be restrictions on how you can treat it and what you can do with it (for example, mileage restrictions). That gets back to the more general issue of the pros and cons of ownership vs. renting, which is relevant for subscription business models more generally.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#16

Post by nbzso » Sat, Sep 25, 2021, 7:48 AM UTC

You will own nothing and you will be happy.

I am waiting all this to crumble under its own weight. The concept of ownership will not go away. It takes time the masses to realize, but eventually they will realize the truth. And will buy nothing. This ultimately will bring people down to earth and they will revolt. The picture planned by Davos elites and most powerful corporations has one big flaw. There is no way to save corrupt system by pretending that countries can do something for their citizens by some "social" agenda and continue to increase taxation and regulation over small businesses and regular people. Corporations are not paying at all.

https://itep.org/55-profitable-corporations-zero-corporate-t...

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#17

Post by pdonis » Sat, Sep 25, 2021, 7:49 AM UTC

philipov wrote: post #11

pdonis wrote: post #3

Subscriptions make sense for things that you get a regular recurring supply of, like milk and newspapers. They might make sense for things that you can get regular upgrades for, like software (although often the "upgrades" aren't really worth much). But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. The whole point with such goods is that you pay once and…

> But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. Which is why there is a war on durable goods, such as trying to develop viable cloud gaming to replace people's gaming computers with subscription services.

> Which is why there is a war on durable goods

Yes, and that war is not being fought to protect the interests of people generally. It's being fought to protect the interests of businesses that don't want to adapt to changing technology and market conditions. They would rather have planned obsolescence than recognize that some goods really don't need to be "upgraded" very frequently and see those resources allocated into new goods and services that would create more wealth. It would be better in the long run for everyone if that trend were reversed.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#18

Post by LurkingPenguin » Sat, Sep 25, 2021, 7:50 AM UTC

> There are still places in the world where getting things is hard; but in most of the developed and developing nations, that is not the case. [*except in America where it seems like getting anything involves a 3-week wait]

Except in America? That's a hell of a caveat.

Putting that aside, as an American who lives overseas, it all depends on what things you want to get and in many cases, how fast you want them, how much you're you're willing to pay. Things you take for granted in one place can be very difficult to get in another.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#19

Post by the-dude » Sat, Sep 25, 2021, 7:52 AM UTC

pdonis wrote: post #3

Subscriptions make sense for things that you get a regular recurring supply of, like milk and newspapers. They might make sense for things that you can get regular upgrades for, like software (although often the "upgrades" aren't really worth much). But they make no sense at all for durable goods that can last for years without significant upgrades, like cars. The whole point with such goods is that you pay once and…

In NL we have subscription based bicycles ( Swapfiets ).

Very popular with the youngest generation.

Re: All businesses will eventually turn into subscriptions

#20

Post by Aeolun » Sat, Sep 25, 2021, 7:57 AM UTC

bullen wrote: post #12

I agree that computer hardware manufacturers need to either build poor quality (selling you a new light bulb every 1000 hours) or rent things out as peak Moores law unfolds, even if some predict the litho to keep getting smaller (EUV) the CPU performance per watt will not increase, mostly because the architecture can't take advantage of the new transistors and random memory speed has been stuck for 20 years.

> random memory speed has been stuck for 20 years

Isn’t this just because random memory speed has never really been the limiting factor for a lot of things?