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Home Price to Income Ratio

longtermtrends.net

11–20 of 704 posts

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#11
This bears repeating: http://www.iedu.com/Documents/Manifesto1892.html

That is a link to the banker's manifesto. The ideal scenario [in the manifesto] is for home prices to far eclipse yearly income, and for houses to be owned by banks instead of occupants. Everything old is new again...

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#12
I’d be interested in seeing the total cost after accounting for interest in the loans, or monthly cost compared to monthly income. Most people don’t pay cash, and they pay more than the asking price due to interest. So high interest rate periods look artificially lower because they ignore a substantial amount of the price

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#13
post #3

I think there's a pretty critical piece of analysis missing here: inflation. An alternative explanation might be that housing prices are being driven up by inflation, and wages haven't caught up yet. There are two ways to lower the home value/income ratio: 1. Decrease housing prices 2. Increase wages We haven't seen meaningful wage increases for a long time now, so perhaps it is time. Maybe this is just a symptom of…

I agree that wage growth is stagnant but I think the changes over the last 20 years of real median wages is definitely meaningful. Look at the changes from peaks in 2000, 2007 and also from a deep trough in 2012:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#14

I've heard 3x income as a rule of thumb for how much house one can afford, but it looks like that's never been widely followed. It also doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense as interest rates have varied so widely - a better rule of thumb might be a ratio between the total amount of payments over the life of a mortgage and one's income.

The 3x income rule is usually mentioned by your loan officer, and your real estate agent. They will present you with houses costing 3x your income as a baseline of what you can afford.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#15

One thing this ignores is interest rates and availability of credit. The biggest determinant of homes people buy is not the total price, but rather how much cash do they need for down payment, and what will the monthly payment be. With low interest rates and increased credit availability ( you don’t need 20% down payment in many cases now), people on the same income are actually able to buy a more expensive home. I t…

Agreed. As much as any other factor, that anyone with a bit of money can now buy an expensive house feels like the thing making the housing prices go up. (As well as our general inability to build.)

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#16

Some very clever and influential people better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now. If they don't, expect overwhelming support from Millennials for massive expansions to public housing and rent control, if not even more draconian measures.

That's gonna happen anyway, so as the millennials said, YOLO.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#17
post #3

I think there's a pretty critical piece of analysis missing here: inflation. An alternative explanation might be that housing prices are being driven up by inflation, and wages haven't caught up yet. There are two ways to lower the home value/income ratio: 1. Decrease housing prices 2. Increase wages We haven't seen meaningful wage increases for a long time now, so perhaps it is time. Maybe this is just a symptom of…

Why pay them more when they're content with what they get now?

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#18
post #10

Some very clever and influential people better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now. If they don't, expect overwhelming support from Millennials for massive expansions to public housing and rent control, if not even more draconian measures.

Why do you consider the 2 examples you gave “draconian”?

Draconian is a strong word (but cool-sounding) and what I really mean is "antiquated". But they are also somewhat blunt instruments and have historically lead to unwanted consequence. We already have more modern, market-oriented solutions, like vouchers and tax-credit housing, but those have problems too. My bigger point was, Millennials tend to react big when specific issues rise to the forefront, and if there aren't better solution than what is already on the table, we risk people clinging to whatever ideas do exist, which in the realm of housing, are mostly shit ideas.

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#19
post #10

Some very clever and influential people better start finding and implementing real solutions to housing prices right now. If they don't, expect overwhelming support from Millennials for massive expansions to public housing and rent control, if not even more draconian measures.

Why do you consider the 2 examples you gave “draconian”?

Rent control really doesn’t make sense. If we could make things cheaper by passing a law we’d do it for everything.

Rent control won’t work for the same reason a price control for food or cars won’t work.

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/rent-control/

Re: Home Price to Income Ratio

#20
Simple the 50 year or 100 year mortgage.

But really covid was the perfect opportunity to let the housing market collapse and reset buying us an additional decade. Wasted opportunity by bailing out landlords.

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