11–20 of 59 posts
Is there any way to short evergrande, buy puts, etc.? I didn't find them listed in my brokerage. Is smart money already doing so? Any other dominos that will fall because of this, and similar plays to take advantage of them?
It seems like the Chinese authorities are trying to deleverage by explicit policy (very evident in the stock market), here when the leverage in the western economies is at its highest. We in the west have a tendency to overestimate China's debt problems by comparing the numbers and ratios to that of the west. Forgetting that 1) China is very big and has a lot of people 2) most people in China are poor and live essent…
The US's economic fundementals aren't great. I'm expecting to see US government spending be the majority of GDP in my lifetime. That sort of centralised planning doesn't bode well for the West.
It seems like the Chinese authorities are trying to deleverage by explicit policy (very evident in the stock market), here when the leverage in the western economies is at its highest. We in the west have a tendency to overestimate China's debt problems by comparing the numbers and ratios to that of the west. Forgetting that 1) China is very big and has a lot of people 2) most people in China are poor and live essent…
They have been investing in infrastructure, housing and energy. The return on that investment has been decreasing. The CCP has been kicking the can down the road as best it can trying to maintain growth numbers, which in part acts as justification for its single party rule.
Is there any way to short evergrande, buy puts, etc.? I didn't find them listed in my brokerage. Is smart money already doing so? Any other dominos that will fall because of this, and similar plays to take advantage of them?
Since then, it seem to have grown from "surreally large" to "absurdreally large"
Go to any big Chinese city. Look around. Every skyscraper around is a mountain of secret debt few times its value.
China is really very close to Sri Lanka in how GDP numbers were financially engineered from massive, but well disguised debts on a nation-state scale
It is been very, very hard to take money out of China for a few months now. A sign of things soon to come, I believe.
The surreally large "shadow debt" that modern China has accumulated was my undergrad essay topic 10 years ago. Since then, it seem to have grown from "surreally large" to "absurdreally large" Go to any big Chinese city. Look around. Every skyscraper around is a mountain of secret debt few times its value. China is really very close to Sri Lanka in how GDP numbers were financially engineered from massive, but well dis…
We live in very exciting times. The question isn't "Is China's economy good?" or "Is China's economy bad?". The question is "How will it perform relative to Europe and America?". The US's economic fundementals aren't great. I'm expecting to see US government spending be the majority of GDP in my lifetime. That sort of centralised planning doesn't bode well for the West.
Looks like it already blipped the 50% mark in WW2 and is quite close now. Seems to (visually) be leveling though.
Chinese citizen living in US, posting anonymously for obvious reason. Huarong and evergrande are just the tip of the iceberg. If you wish to know what all the things fester below for CCP, here's a very timely summary video from laowhy86, one of the YouTube expert on China https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpwtZLzDM_o Unfortunately you will not find many outspoken Chinese native citizen on YouTube, for they all fear CCP…
Laowhy provides a compelling narrative, but it also feels like it is just that: a narrative.
China as a country has endured and has at hand many more tools to ensure its stability. It is not a simple dictature or the USSR, which could be brought to its knees via a mix of political and economic ostracism.
The video sadly feels like some feel-good geopolitical video for westerners: "don't worry about China because China worries about itself and hides it, badly".
We live in very exciting times. The question isn't "Is China's economy good?" or "Is China's economy bad?". The question is "How will it perform relative to Europe and America?". The US's economic fundementals aren't great. I'm expecting to see US government spending be the majority of GDP in my lifetime. That sort of centralised planning doesn't bode well for the West.
So I thought "gov't spending, majority of GDP" was preposterous, but then I looked at the graph at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_Uni... Looks like it already blipped the 50% mark in WW2 and is quite close now. Seems to (visually) be leveling though.
It looks like government spending has stabilized 40 years ago. Considering how much the economy got "worse" from the perspective of the average because China got more powerful since 2000 it's actually strange how the numbers remained stable.