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Broken Lotteries | Wired Science

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11–13 of 13 posts

Re: Broken Lotteries | Wired Science

#11
post #9
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In these cases, yes. Of course there's also the more direct saying that lotteries are a tax on stupid people. But I don't see it that way. It's supposed to be a contract between a lot of poor people allowing one or more of them a chance at a "rich" life. If anything, it's a tax on desperate people.

Yes, (a (non-broken) lottery might be a rational choice even for someone understanding the math behind it. If you only have $20k and need $0.5M for an urgent life saving operation, then the expected payoff for not playing is -$20k (death) and it's -$20k+(some non-negative value representing the win) for spending all of your money on tickets.

Yes, it can be better than doing nothing, but it's a rational choice only if there isn't anything else you can do that offers a better chance of multiplying your money by 25.

Consider a lottery that sells tickets for $1 and pays back an average of 50c per ticket, with only one prize: the $500k jackpot. (This is pretty much the most favourable case for trying to raise the money by lottery.) Then each ticket has a 1/1000000 probability of winning, and (roughly) if you buy $20k of tickets then you have a 1/50 chance of winning.

Instead, you could go to a casino and bet all your money on one spin of the roulette wheel. Assuming that the game is fair but has single and double zeroes, your chance of winning is 1/38 (instead of 1/50) and if you win you get $720k (instead of $500k).

Or you could sink a lot of money into a troubled company whose stock price is very low and hope it recovers dramatically. I don't know how often such opportunities exist that have even a 1/50 chance of paying off 25x in a hurry, but I doubt it's that rare.

Re: Broken Lotteries | Wired Science

#12
post #6

Looked more into Cash WinFall, looks like they are trying to fix the lottery and are blocking gamblers from buying more than $5000 of tickets per day per terminal: http://www.masslottery.com/about/news.html

The article from the old discussion mentioned that lottery merchants were violating a number of rules by letting these high-rolling customers run the ticket machines, etc. I wonder how they'll enforce this new rule if they had trouble enforcing the rest of them.

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2828122

Re: Broken Lotteries | Wired Science

#13
post #7

I thought the winning tickets would be decided first, then filled with winning/losing numbers and symbols, specifically to avoid situations like this.

No, that's exactly what lead to these situations. If you choose the winning tickets first, the player may have access to observed numbers of winners or your potential filler algorithm. That information must be accounted for by the design.
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