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Materials to get lights on are getting scarce

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Re: Materials to get lights on are getting scarce

#11

Post by robocat »

mrkstu wrote: post #4

The knowledge currently exists on how to manufacture all this from minerals to final output- probably a good idea to spend some of those trillions in infrastructure spending tempting some retirees to come and help us re-establish a full chain of manufacturing in critical areas.

How It's Made Electric Pole Transformers : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7E6wJ7h30c ABB making them in the US (all signs in English, lbs label on crane), but I would guess the video is from last century.

Also Siemens make Electric Pole transformers (I think) in Colombia - shown for a short segment at the start of this more recent video montage on making a variety of different transformers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MHoiNnv3ZE

Re: Materials to get lights on are getting scarce

#12

Post by toomuchtodo »

josephcsible wrote: post #10
scottLobster wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say buy rooftop solar and batteries like it's an option most people have. Depending on who's numbers you go by most American households would be bankrupted by a multi-thousand dollar emergency, they don't have the disposable income for solar and batteries. That's without even considering legalities regarding grid connection (some utilities don't allow independent operation of solar panels that are also connected…

Isn't rooftop solar usually something you can finance, unlike most emergency expenses?

Yes, and payback period in many places is less than 10 years, while the equipment will typically last well past its 25 year warranty.

There’s also a 26% federal tax credit, and in some cases state, local, and utility incentives. Generators and fuel don’t receive those financial incentives.

Re: Materials to get lights on are getting scarce

#13

Post by colechristensen »

So what is actually going on? Supply issues everywhere while at the same time a booming stock market?

Is quantitative easing and unemployment protection turning our economy inside out?

It seems like prime time to deploy capital to build manufacturing and raw material capacity, is it all getting sucked into markets too abstracted from reality?

I’m getting a gut feeling that we’re running towards an entirely new kind of crash, worse but much weirder than have been experienced so far.

Re: Materials to get lights on are getting scarce

#15

Post by CyanLite4 »

colechristensen wrote: post #13

So what is actually going on? Supply issues everywhere while at the same time a booming stock market? Is quantitative easing and unemployment protection turning our economy inside out? It seems like prime time to deploy capital to build manufacturing and raw material capacity, is it all getting sucked into markets too abstracted from reality? I’m getting a gut feeling that we’re running towards an entirely new kind o…

Probably just temporary. New Orleans is having to rebuild their electric infrastructure. Over 2600 transformers destroyed in one day from one storm.

Re: Materials to get lights on are getting scarce

#16

Post by irrational »

Recently I installed a fan in my living room. While I was at it I expanded the gang box from 3 to 4 and decided to replace the toggle switches with rocker switches. I was shocked when I went to the electrical aisle of my local Home Depot. They were out of so many components. I ended up having to go to 3 different Home Depots, 2 different Lowes, and 1 Ace Hardware to find all the parts I was looking for. I asked various electrical section employees and they just said they can't get anything in and have no idea if they will ever get replacements. If you have a project in mind for sometime in the future, you might want to scrounge up all the parts right now.

Re: Materials to get lights on are getting scarce

#17

Post by ac29 »

colechristensen wrote: post #13

So what is actually going on? Supply issues everywhere while at the same time a booming stock market? Is quantitative easing and unemployment protection turning our economy inside out? It seems like prime time to deploy capital to build manufacturing and raw material capacity, is it all getting sucked into markets too abstracted from reality? I’m getting a gut feeling that we’re running towards an entirely new kind o…

> Supply issues everywhere while at the same time a booming stock market?

Why is this surprising? They are both caused by high demand. Shortages suck, but completely selling out your products is one of the better problems to have for a company, because it means you are making a lot of money.

Re: Materials to get lights on are getting scarce

#18

Post by skybrian »

colechristensen wrote: post #13

So what is actually going on? Supply issues everywhere while at the same time a booming stock market? Is quantitative easing and unemployment protection turning our economy inside out? It seems like prime time to deploy capital to build manufacturing and raw material capacity, is it all getting sucked into markets too abstracted from reality? I’m getting a gut feeling that we’re running towards an entirely new kind o…

I suspect it’s that we’ve underestimated how long it takes to increase capacity by removing bottlenecks. “Deploying capital” means building factories and stuff like that. When forecasts are good we don’t notice the lag, but during the pandemic, forecasts are usually bad.

But the problem with these macroeconomic abstractions is that they’re abstractions, and the actual problems are specific.

Re: Materials to get lights on are getting scarce

#19

Post by colechristensen »

ac29 wrote: post #17
colechristensen wrote: post #13

So what is actually going on? Supply issues everywhere while at the same time a booming stock market? Is quantitative easing and unemployment protection turning our economy inside out? It seems like prime time to deploy capital to build manufacturing and raw material capacity, is it all getting sucked into markets too abstracted from reality? I’m getting a gut feeling that we’re running towards an entirely new kind o…

> Supply issues everywhere while at the same time a booming stock market? Why is this surprising? They are both caused by high demand. Shortages suck, but completely selling out your products is one of the better problems to have for a company, because it means you are making a lot of money.

But it seems like the amount of stuff produced is going way down, not just selling or normal production runs.

Re: Materials to get lights on are getting scarce

#20

Post by yjftsjthsd-h »

UWillOwnNothing wrote: post #5
mrkstu wrote: post #4

The knowledge currently exists on how to manufacture all this from minerals to final output- probably a good idea to spend some of those trillions in infrastructure spending tempting some retirees to come and help us re-establish a full chain of manufacturing in critical areas.

If current institutions possessed such competence we wouldn’t be facing such a dilemma.

It's completely possible to have the knowledge/competence to do something but be thwarted by resource constraints / management / social/economic issues.
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