Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, Israel Study Suggests • Hacker News Board

Re: Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, Israel Study Suggests

#11

Post by superkuh » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:04 PM UTC

hourislate wrote: post #5

Need to come up with a Nasal Spray version. The mucosal immune system represents the body’s first line of defense and makes up most of the immune system and should be more effective than an intramuscular shot. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-08-sniffing-alternative-... Researchers even observed the nasal vaccine to be more effective than if administered into the muscles, Damron said. He explained that a high amou…

Yes. No intramuscular vaccination for a respiratory virus is going to be effective at preventing infection of the surface, mucosal, tissues in the upper respiratory tract. The IgG antibodies in the body serum do seep into the lower lungs though and prevent serious diseases there and in the body proper.

To provide sterilizing immunity to the upper respiratory mucosa we'll need an intranasal booster after the intramuscular to recruit resident B and T cells to the upper respiratory mucosa. There the B cells will make IgA antibodies for a much longer time than IgG antibodies can seep in at any useful level. Additionally the resident T cells will kill off any cells that do get infected.

This is a nuanced issue. We need to be clear that there is a difference between infection of the body organs and infection of the surface mucosal tissues.

ref: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/373/6553/397

ref: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evoluti... page 5, #8. "Whilst we feel that current vaccines are excellent for reducing the risk of hospital admission and disease, we propose that research be focused on vaccines that also induce high and durable levels of mucosal immunity in order to reduce infection of and transmission from vaccinated individuals. This could also reduce the possibility of variant selection in vaccinated individuals."

ref: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00550-x

Re: Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, Israel Study Suggests

#12

Post by HWR_14 » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:05 PM UTC

jefft255 wrote: post #6

j_walter wrote: post #4

39% effective against infection, but the big sticking point is that it "Largely prevents severe illness"...ie keeping people out of the hospital. That is the crucial need right now with the delta spread.

My understanding is that it's pretty clear that vaccine do not do a good job at preventing infection (i.e. testing positive and/or having cold-like symptoms), Delta or not. I don't think they were ever advertised as such.

The mRNA vaccines were very good at preventing any infection, between 80% and 95% effective depending on variant and study. J&J was between 65 and 80% depending on the variant and study. All of them have been excellent at preventing hospitalization and death.

And they definitely were advertised as helping to prevent the spread. That's the whole "herd immunity" thing. After all, one goal is to prevent the epidemic from hitting the unvaccinated.

Re: Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, Israel Study Suggests

#13

Post by JshWright » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:05 PM UTC

jefft255 wrote: post #6

j_walter wrote: post #4

39% effective against infection, but the big sticking point is that it "Largely prevents severe illness"...ie keeping people out of the hospital. That is the crucial need right now with the delta spread.

My understanding is that it's pretty clear that vaccine do not do a good job at preventing infection (i.e. testing positive and/or having cold-like symptoms), Delta or not. I don't think they were ever advertised as such.

That depends on what you mean by "good job". It's certainly better at preventing sever illness than it is at preventing infection altogether, but it's still quite good at that (better than the typical flu vaccine, for instance).

Re: Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, Israel Study Suggests

#14

Post by j_walter » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:05 PM UTC

jefft255 wrote: post #6

j_walter wrote: post #4

39% effective against infection, but the big sticking point is that it "Largely prevents severe illness"...ie keeping people out of the hospital. That is the crucial need right now with the delta spread.

My understanding is that it's pretty clear that vaccine do not do a good job at preventing infection (i.e. testing positive and/or having cold-like symptoms), Delta or not. I don't think they were ever advertised as such.

Politicians certainly didn't deliver a great message about it though...when they are the ones that are giving out 99% of the information about the vaccine (since I don't think the drug companies can advertise a non-approved drug). Many vaccines are meant to prevent infection, but this type is meant to mostly reduce the chance of severe infection by training your body to see the virus sooner and know how to attack it with less "training".

Re: Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, Israel Study Suggests

#15

Post by dolni » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:06 PM UTC

Studies continue to show vaccines are less effective than we were all lead to believe. It seems like every new study that comes out lowers the bar even further. Pretty soon we'll be hearing "the vaccine doesn't help at all, but at least it didn't give you cancer" (mild sarcasm there, but you get the point).

Each of the big pharma companies were poised to make a boatload of money by being first to produce a vaccine. I'm disappointed, but not surprised.

Re: Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, Israel Study Suggests

#16

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:06 PM UTC

jefft255 wrote: post #6

j_walter wrote: post #4

39% effective against infection, but the big sticking point is that it "Largely prevents severe illness"...ie keeping people out of the hospital. That is the crucial need right now with the delta spread.

My understanding is that it's pretty clear that vaccine do not do a good job at preventing infection (i.e. testing positive and/or having cold-like symptoms), Delta or not. I don't think they were ever advertised as such.

[deleted]

Re: Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, Israel Study Suggests

#17

Post by ThatGeoGuy » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:07 PM UTC

I am extremely skeptical of this. I think the best summary of why this isn't the story is provided by Zvi[1]. See the section "Delta Variant."

It's not something I can summarize in a couple short sentences, but the base rate of infections we're seeing from the actual data of delta infections doesn't match the 39% intuition at all. Additionally, the Israel Study seems to be thrown around a lot, but the data is suspicious if you look at our actual delta infection data from every other source.

In short, I think there's a lot of panic here that is being done by people who are looking at a single study.

[1]: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/08/19/covid-8-19-cracking-...

Re: Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, Israel Study Suggests

#18

Post by j_walter » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:08 PM UTC

HWR_14 wrote: post #9

j_walter wrote: post #4

39% effective against infection, but the big sticking point is that it "Largely prevents severe illness"...ie keeping people out of the hospital. That is the crucial need right now with the delta spread.

The 39% is against getting an infection, and I believe that includes the ability to transmit the infection on. It definitely is crucial that Re (R0 modified by measures like vaccines and masks) be kept below 1 if at all possible. The preventing severe illness is still holding pretty firm, but not as strong as against other variants. Still a very good chance. And preventing hospitalizations is even stronger.

I haven't seen any good information on transmission. My gut feeling is that less symptoms == less transmissibility, but I have no data to back that up.

One study has put the delta R0 around the same as Measles...which is 3x original COVID, but still less than Chicken Pox.

Re: Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, Israel Study Suggests

#19

Post by eachro » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:09 PM UTC

dolni wrote: post #15

Studies continue to show vaccines are less effective than we were all lead to believe. It seems like every new study that comes out lowers the bar even further. Pretty soon we'll be hearing "the vaccine doesn't help at all, but at least it didn't give you cancer" (mild sarcasm there, but you get the point). Each of the big pharma companies were poised to make a boatload of money by being first to produce a vaccine. I…

> Each of the big pharma companies were poised to make a boatload of money by being first to produce a vaccine. I'm disappointed, but not surprised.

Considering the massive drop in deaths as various countries, US states got vaccinated, I'd say they haven't been compensated enough.

Re: Pfizer Shot Just 39% Effective Against Delta Infection, Israel Study Suggests

#20

Post by nitwit005 » Mon, Aug 23, 2021, 4:10 PM UTC

dolni wrote: post #15

Studies continue to show vaccines are less effective than we were all lead to believe. It seems like every new study that comes out lowers the bar even further. Pretty soon we'll be hearing "the vaccine doesn't help at all, but at least it didn't give you cancer" (mild sarcasm there, but you get the point). Each of the big pharma companies were poised to make a boatload of money by being first to produce a vaccine. I…

You're acting like this is a surprise result, but everyone expected this. The vaccine was designed to make you resistant to a different virus. We give out new flu shots every year for a reason.