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Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

economist.com

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Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#11

Post by gpapilion »

Leparamour wrote: post #9
hatchnyc wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect that if those numbers were significant they would have found their way into the headline.

> I suspect that if those numbers were significant they would have found their way into the headline. That would mean admitting the anti-vaxxers were right after all. Unlikely to happen. If it happens at all, the dial will be turned up slowly: only ever admit what cannot longer be denied plausibly.

One paper I’ve seen in rural California reports numbers split between vaxed and unvaccinated. Those numbers suggest the unvaccinated are infected at a rate ~ 100x the vaccinated.

Additionally, most days I’ve seen suggests that vaccinated parties are still less likely to end up in the hospital.

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#12

Post by hatchnyc »

Leparamour wrote: post #9
hatchnyc wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect that if those numbers were significant they would have found their way into the headline.

> I suspect that if those numbers were significant they would have found their way into the headline. That would mean admitting the anti-vaxxers were right after all. Unlikely to happen. If it happens at all, the dial will be turned up slowly: only ever admit what cannot longer be denied plausibly.

> That would mean admitting the anti-vaxxers were right after all.

I'm not sure I follow how?

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#13

Post by sokoloff »

refurb wrote: post #10
probablypower wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>you'd probably want a breakdown of what percentage are foreigners versus residents, and that's not available as far as I'm aware. That data is available here: https://www.covid.is/data Data on vaccinations is here: https://www.covid.is/statistical-information-on-vaccination Even though half of hospitalisations are vaccinated people, it is important to consider that we are now 71% vaccinated (84% for people over 12 y…

Your probabilities are confounded by asymptomatic cases, in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. In regularly tested populations, the number of asymptomatic cases can be quite high (50%). Unless they are tested and identified they will never be counted.

It seems perfectly reasonable to care more about symptomatic cases and a lot more about cases requiring hospitalization.

Sure, let’s do the research to learn more about the disease including asymptotic cases, but I’m going to be honest: if anyone in my family had an asymptotic case, I’d be happy about rather than upset at this point.

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#14

Post by shapefrog »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #6
agent327 wrote: post #3

I hate how every single article about covid leaves out a great many details. For example: - Ok, so if you are vaccinated you can get infected. There's no word about the seriousness of the infection though. - Hospital beds are filling up again. What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital? etc.

Plenty of things are left out, indeed. to add to the list of missing, important numbers: > so if you are vaccinated you can get infected Yes, you _can_, but at what rate compared to unvaccinated people? It's not the same, real-world data shows that. > What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital This number is meaningless without also knowing what percentage of the people are vaccinated. Compa…

> Yes, you _can_, but at what rate compared to unvaccinated people? It's not the same, real-world data shows that.

The phase 3 trial endpoints were symptomatic infection not asymptomatic infection. The small samples in those studies showed effectively zero efficacy against asymptomatic infection. While the breakthrough cases are largely blaming delta variant being vaccine evading, the real world results dont appear out of line with the mid 2020 clinical trials.

Appologies for the not great reference, and context is only astrazeneca which I understand was less effective against asymptomatic than the MRNA: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/12/phase-3-...

Of the group receiving an initial half-dose of COVID-19 vaccine, 7 of 1,120 (0.6%) participants in the vaccine group and 17 of 1,127 participants (1.5%) in the control group had asymptomatic infections, equating to a vaccine effectiveness against asymptomatic spread of 59%. In those who received two standard doses, 22 of 2,168 participants (1%) in the vaccine group and 23 of 2,223 in the control group (1%) had asymptomatic infection, indicating a 4% vaccine effectiveness against asymptomatic spread.

> This number is meaningless without also knowing what percentage of the people are vaccinated.

I dont get why this is not constantly reported? For the last year 'vaccine efficacy' has been talked about constantly - here we can have a real world, real time calculated vaccine efficacy, stratified by age, race, weight, height, favourite color, with out the excuse of, 'its a tiny rushed clinical trial' and nobody seemingly wants to know.

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#15

Post by shapefrog »

gpapilion wrote: post #11
Leparamour wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suspect that if those numbers were significant they would have found their way into the headline. That would mean admitting the anti-vaxxers were right after all. Unlikely to happen. If it happens at all, the dial will be turned up slowly: only ever admit what cannot longer be denied plausibly.

One paper I’ve seen in rural California reports numbers split between vaxed and unvaccinated. Those numbers suggest the unvaccinated are infected at a rate ~ 100x the vaccinated. Additionally, most days I’ve seen suggests that vaccinated parties are still less likely to end up in the hospital.

> are infected at a rate ~ 100x

I am assuming the reports you have mentioned are hospitalisaions thus ... are hospitalised at a rate ~100x

The proportion of asymptomatic infections among the included studies ranged from 1.4% to 78.3%. [1] So hard to draw too many conclusions from hospitalisation rates as to the infection rate (and virus carrier / transmitter)

[1] https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#16

Post by fragileone »

hatchnyc wrote: post #12
Leparamour wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suspect that if those numbers were significant they would have found their way into the headline. That would mean admitting the anti-vaxxers were right after all. Unlikely to happen. If it happens at all, the dial will be turned up slowly: only ever admit what cannot longer be denied plausibly.

> That would mean admitting the anti-vaxxers were right after all. I'm not sure I follow how?

If vaccinated and unvaccinated are hospitalised are hospitalised with infections at similar rates (like is happening in the UK) then it'd prove that current vaccines are indeed ineffective long-term, as they already fail to stop the delta variant.

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#17

Post by helge9210 »

agent327 wrote: post #3

I hate how every single article about covid leaves out a great many details. For example: - Ok, so if you are vaccinated you can get infected. There's no word about the seriousness of the infection though. - Hospital beds are filling up again. What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital? etc.

> What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital?

According to https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-...> in Israel last week around 60% of critical cases are fully vaccinated.

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#18

Post by agent327 »

fragileone wrote: post #16
hatchnyc wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That would mean admitting the anti-vaxxers were right after all. I'm not sure I follow how?

If vaccinated and unvaccinated are hospitalised are hospitalised with infections at similar rates (like is happening in the UK) then it'd prove that current vaccines are indeed ineffective long-term, as they already fail to stop the delta variant.

Not necessarily; as a previous poster commented, it does depend on the ratio of vaccinated against unvaccinated as well.

If a population has 1000 vaccinated people and 100 unvaccinated, and ten of each end up in the hospital, it looks like the odds of ending up in the hospital are equal, since there's ten of each. However, in the vaccinated group it is only one out of every 100 that ends up in the hospital, while in the unvaccinated group it's one out of every 10.

This is why I was complaining about overview numbers being unavailable; typically you hear only one set of numbers but not the context that would let you interpret those.

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#19

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

fragileone wrote: post #16
hatchnyc wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That would mean admitting the anti-vaxxers were right after all. I'm not sure I follow how?

If vaccinated and unvaccinated are hospitalised are hospitalised with infections at similar rates (like is happening in the UK) then it'd prove that current vaccines are indeed ineffective long-term, as they already fail to stop the delta variant.

> vaccinated and unvaccinated are hospitalised are hospitalised with infections at similar rates (like is happening in the UK)

What makes you think that?

The sources that I have seen indicate very much otherwise. ZOE always includes these numbers, e.g.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94RYUr3wFJA&t=231s

Note that per capita it's much lower among fully vaccinated people.

Around 6:20 you can see the stark difference in hospitalisations and deaths between the (mostly unvaccinated) UK 2nd wave, and the (largely vaccinated) 3rd wave.

tl;dr: anti-vaxxers are not right. Again. Still.

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#20

Post by shapefrog »

helge9210 wrote: post #17
agent327 wrote: post #3

I hate how every single article about covid leaves out a great many details. For example: - Ok, so if you are vaccinated you can get infected. There's no word about the seriousness of the infection though. - Hospital beds are filling up again. What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital? etc.

> What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital? According to https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-... > in Israel last week around 60% of critical cases are fully vaccinated.

Against 62.9% of 'entire' population vaccinated. ~80% of over 60's.

Depends what part of the population is being hospitalised, but not the 'best numbers'.

https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination-israel-impact

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