Describing self-driving car research as a "race" reminds me of a movie: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2GEKV1dOgY
Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
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Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#12Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words. Tesla is the only serious contender so far. They're the only company with real life cars on real life roads all over the world. It's not just the technology, it's deployment of the technology at scale . It's a platform. Comma.ai is good too and I think it'll be a great option for adding AI-like capabilities to future and past "dumb" cars. I see right aroun…
> Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words.
I expect this to happen in reverse. Google will buy up some more startups in the space then eventually a traditional car maker.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#13Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words. Tesla is the only serious contender so far. They're the only company with real life cars on real life roads all over the world. It's not just the technology, it's deployment of the technology at scale . It's a platform. Comma.ai is good too and I think it'll be a great option for adding AI-like capabilities to future and past "dumb" cars. I see right aroun…
My pet theory is that Apple won’t produce a car; rather, they’ll produce a car cockpit. A kit of standard, high quality parts, comprising everything a driver touches. So Ford would make a car, Apple would make the screen, steering wheel, mirrors, etc. Might be a trim level or package on existing car models.
Every time I drive an unfamiliar car, I see so much opportunity for an Apple-like company to fix the UX of infotainment and quality feel of volume dials, etc.
This might be the way everyone else can catch up to Tesla’s UX. Yes, Tesla has issues, but their dang touchscreen doesn’t have a half second input delay.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#14Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words. Tesla is the only serious contender so far. They're the only company with real life cars on real life roads all over the world. It's not just the technology, it's deployment of the technology at scale . It's a platform. Comma.ai is good too and I think it'll be a great option for adding AI-like capabilities to future and past "dumb" cars. I see right aroun…
Can you explain your reasoning and or insight for these conclusions? Personally I see Comma.ai as more likely to "never figure it out" than Cruise and others, but I lack special insight.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#15Possibility 9 — nobody does, because there is no such thing as self-driving. The whole name "self-driving" is invented to pull the wool on public's eyes, and is a misnomer. It's fundamentally clear to anybody moderately technically literate that what "self-driving" companies can't be called "driving," yet there are way more studied, and credited people than us here working in these companies who know that, and stay s…
Self-driving, as in there's no one driving the car, it drives itself. No human labor proportional to miles driven. How is that a misnomer?
I would consider something capable of passing an arbitrary variation of DARPA Grand Challenge in urban traffic conditions repeatedly as something close to genuine "driving," but not the current "driving on rails" approach.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#16Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words. Tesla is the only serious contender so far. They're the only company with real life cars on real life roads all over the world. It's not just the technology, it's deployment of the technology at scale . It's a platform. Comma.ai is good too and I think it'll be a great option for adding AI-like capabilities to future and past "dumb" cars. I see right aroun…
Well, I think Tesla is developing FSD recklessly and their accidents will set back the entire industry for years. It’s not about “figuring it out,” real self driving under all conditions a human can handle is decades away still.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/tesla-is-now-beta-testi...
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#17Describing self-driving car research as a "race" reminds me of a movie: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2GEKV1dOgY
All the self-driving car work you see being done today is literally rooted in a race! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DARPA_Grand_Challenge
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#18Earlier quoted context omitted.
Self-driving, as in there's no one driving the car, it drives itself. No human labor proportional to miles driven. How is that a misnomer?
I would consider something capable of passing an arbitrary variation of DARPA Grand Challenge in urban traffic conditions repeatedly as something close to genuine "driving," but not the current "driving on rails" approach.
1) you clearly don't know what the cars are capable of today.
2) many (most?) licensed drivers today could not pass difficult urban driving tests without violating a zillion laws and taking totally unsafe risks that people would never allow robots to gamble on.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#19The missing possibility is that no one wins generalized self-driving.
Self-driving is not a solvable or a winnable problem, because the problem or question isn’t defined. It’s a probabilistic space, where the world presents scenarios, and a computer must make a “correct” or “good” decision as often as possible, for the widest range of inputs.
Because there isn’t a grand unified formula for self-driving, I’m not even sure how we can talk about it being “solved”. Maybe Tesla might be able to self-drive on US or EU or first world clearly marked streets with 99.99% automation, assuming training data exists for all road signs and weather conditions? Is that what we mean by self-driving being solved? That might be possible in the next few years.
Other than that, doesn’t seem like there’s going to be much more than driver assist. Driving is a general intelligence problem, not something machine learning can solve - by definition ML can only work on problems it has many known solutions to.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#20Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words. Tesla is the only serious contender so far. They're the only company with real life cars on real life roads all over the world. It's not just the technology, it's deployment of the technology at scale . It's a platform. Comma.ai is good too and I think it'll be a great option for adding AI-like capabilities to future and past "dumb" cars. I see right aroun…
Waymo is the spun out version of the Google self-driving car project.
Tesla is probably the only "famous" autonomy company that is not considered a serious contender, including by people sitting in them.