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Vaccinated Americans more likely to die from a lightning strike than Covid

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Vaccinated Americans more likely to die from a lightning strike than Covid

#11

Post by iammisc »

mint2 wrote: post #8
blacktriangle wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love how the burden of proof is apparently on the people who don't want to take the highly experimental rushed to market treatment that is making its manufacture (and those in government who are linked to said manufacturers) rich. I swear it only took 5 years to convert everybody from "don't trust the gov" to "blindly trust the government!"

Is Covid a fake virus? It’s a choice between getting Covid and getting the vaccine. It’s only a matter of time before one gets Covid if one isn’t vaccinated. The only caveat is with the delta variant and whatever next even more virulent variant comes along due to the mutations that occur as the virus continues to spread freely (due to lack of vaccines induced herd immunity), vaccinated people may get it without a boo…

I am vaccinated, but I don't understand this reaction to the unvaccinated.

Unless the commenter above is much older than typical HN demographics, if they get covid they will likely get a cold and then be fine. This the overwhelmingly most likely outcome.

The idea that catching this disease is some great event is just media conditioning.

For the vast majority of people it is a cold. Sometimes it's a bad cold. You know, like the kind we used to get every few months in the before times?

Re: Vaccinated Americans more likely to die from a lightning strike than Covid

#12

Post by eesmith »

ed wrote: post #2

In 2021 there were no lightning deaths in the US as of June [0]. This stat compares the lifetime odds of death from lightning [1] to several months of covid data. 0 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/06/08/us-weather... 1 - https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-o...

3 deaths as of 7/20/2021 - https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-fatalities . The first was on June 9th, one day after your [0].

2021 has had an uncommonly low number of deaths. The same link says the 10 year average is 25 fatalities per year, and on average about 7 by the end of July.

Re: Vaccinated Americans more likely to die from a lightning strike than Covid

#13

Post by BugsJustFindMe »

iammisc wrote: post #11
mint2 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Covid a fake virus? It’s a choice between getting Covid and getting the vaccine. It’s only a matter of time before one gets Covid if one isn’t vaccinated. The only caveat is with the delta variant and whatever next even more virulent variant comes along due to the mutations that occur as the virus continues to spread freely (due to lack of vaccines induced herd immunity), vaccinated people may get it without a boo…

I am vaccinated, but I don't understand this reaction to the unvaccinated. Unless the commenter above is much older than typical HN demographics, if they get covid they will likely get a cold and then be fine. This the overwhelmingly most likely outcome. The idea that catching this disease is some great event is just media conditioning. For the vast majority of people it is a cold. Sometimes it's a bad cold. You know…

> Unless the commenter above is much older than typical HN demographics, if they get covid they will likely get a cold

And apparently long term brain damage according to several large studies published in the last few months. It's not exactly a secret that death isn't the only measurable consequence of the virus.

And it's not like the people who _are_ older than the HN demographic are out there getting sick by licking doorknobs and wombats. COVID is being spread to them by the decisions of people who are unwilling to take the harm of spreading the virus seriously.

Re: Vaccinated Americans more likely to die from a lightning strike than Covid

#14

Post by hirvi74 »

iammisc wrote: post #11
mint2 wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is Covid a fake virus? It’s a choice between getting Covid and getting the vaccine. It’s only a matter of time before one gets Covid if one isn’t vaccinated. The only caveat is with the delta variant and whatever next even more virulent variant comes along due to the mutations that occur as the virus continues to spread freely (due to lack of vaccines induced herd immunity), vaccinated people may get it without a boo…

I am vaccinated, but I don't understand this reaction to the unvaccinated. Unless the commenter above is much older than typical HN demographics, if they get covid they will likely get a cold and then be fine. This the overwhelmingly most likely outcome. The idea that catching this disease is some great event is just media conditioning. For the vast majority of people it is a cold. Sometimes it's a bad cold. You know…

This view point does not account for the harmful effects of spreading the disease to other potentially more vulnerable populations.

Vaccines are not solely for the benefit of individual, but also the population of which the individual belongs.

Re: Vaccinated Americans more likely to die from a lightning strike than Covid

#15

Post by iammisc »

hirvi74 wrote: post #14
iammisc wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am vaccinated, but I don't understand this reaction to the unvaccinated. Unless the commenter above is much older than typical HN demographics, if they get covid they will likely get a cold and then be fine. This the overwhelmingly most likely outcome. The idea that catching this disease is some great event is just media conditioning. For the vast majority of people it is a cold. Sometimes it's a bad cold. You know…

This view point does not account for the harmful effects of spreading the disease to other potentially more vulnerable populations. Vaccines are not solely for the benefit of individual, but also the population of which the individual belongs.

Are those 'vulnerable' populations not able to get vaccinated?

Re: Vaccinated Americans more likely to die from a lightning strike than Covid

#16

Post by iammisc »

BugsJustFindMe wrote: post #13
iammisc wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am vaccinated, but I don't understand this reaction to the unvaccinated. Unless the commenter above is much older than typical HN demographics, if they get covid they will likely get a cold and then be fine. This the overwhelmingly most likely outcome. The idea that catching this disease is some great event is just media conditioning. For the vast majority of people it is a cold. Sometimes it's a bad cold. You know…

> Unless the commenter above is much older than typical HN demographics, if they get covid they will likely get a cold And apparently long term brain damage according to several large studies published in the last few months. It's not exactly a secret that death isn't the only measurable consequence of the virus. And it's not like the people who _are_ older than the HN demographic are out there getting sick by lickin…

My goodness, all viral colds have a whole slurry of symptoms that some unlucky few get. I remember when some kid in my mom's second grade class died one weekend because of an infection he caught on Friday. Shit happens, the world is weird. We used to live our life while ignoring all the various terrible things that could happen to 1 in 1million people.

> And it's not like the people who _are_ older than the HN demographic are out there getting sick by licking doorknobs and wombats. COVID is being spread to them by the decisions of people who are unwilling to take the harm of spreading the virus seriously.

Ultimately, at some point, these vulnerable people need to be the ones to go on lockdown. We cannot shut the world down to accommodate a very small segment of the population. We never made everyone stay inside with AIDS

Re: Vaccinated Americans more likely to die from a lightning strike than Covid

#17

Post by BugsJustFindMe »

iammisc wrote: post #16
BugsJustFindMe wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unless the commenter above is much older than typical HN demographics, if they get covid they will likely get a cold And apparently long term brain damage according to several large studies published in the last few months. It's not exactly a secret that death isn't the only measurable consequence of the virus. And it's not like the people who _are_ older than the HN demographic are out there getting sick by lickin…

My goodness, all viral colds have a whole slurry of symptoms that some unlucky few get. I remember when some kid in my mom's second grade class died one weekend because of an infection he caught on Friday. Shit happens, the world is weird. We used to live our life while ignoring all the various terrible things that could happen to 1 in 1million people. > And it's not like the people who _are_ older than the HN demogr…

> the various terrible things that could happen to 1 in 1million people

The current US COVID fatality rate is 1 in 50 cases. The incidence of measurable brain damage in survivors appears to be even higher. Even if we pretend that everyone in the entire US has already been infected (obviously false), that would still be a fatality rate of 1 in 550. Getting to 1 in a million takes some extreme stretching.

> We never made everyone stay inside with AIDS

I don't know who all needs to hear this, but you cannot get HIV from someone breathing on you. Also the government's weak/slow response to the HIV epidemic in the US is considered by many historians to have been a complete travesty of governance. I don't think it makes the great point of comparison that you intended it to.

> all viral colds have a whole slurry of symptoms that some unlucky few get

"Few" being the operative word there. The difference in risk between a cold and COVID is stark.

> I remember when some kid in my mom's second grade class died one weekend

You remember it as a weird rare event because there wasn't a global cold pandemic killing 1 in 50 people who got infected.

Re: Vaccinated Americans more likely to die from a lightning strike than Covid

#18

Post by iammisc »

BugsJustFindMe wrote: post #17
iammisc wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My goodness, all viral colds have a whole slurry of symptoms that some unlucky few get. I remember when some kid in my mom's second grade class died one weekend because of an infection he caught on Friday. Shit happens, the world is weird. We used to live our life while ignoring all the various terrible things that could happen to 1 in 1million people. > And it's not like the people who _are_ older than the HN demogr…

> the various terrible things that could happen to 1 in 1million people The current US COVID fatality rate is 1 in 50 cases. The incidence of measurable brain damage in survivors appears to be even higher. Even if we pretend that everyone in the entire US has already been infected (obviously false), that would still be a fatality rate of 1 in 550. Getting to 1 in a million takes some extreme stretching. > We never ma…

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7721859/

This offers real estimates of the actual IFR (the likelihood of death if you have the virus in your system).

I'll refer you to table 3

The average HNer is going to likely be in the 0-54 demographic. Their IFR is anywhere from 0.004% to 0.23%.

The case fatality ratio you cite has a number of problems. Firstly, it's not true that the 'current' COVID fatality rate is 1/50. To make such a claim you need to define 'current'. You are citing the entire case fatality rate over the last year and a half. And even then, you're overstating it, since it's 1.8% by most estimates.

A current rate would mean taking a smaller window starting from today and determining the CFR. Given that cases are currently going up while deaths are flat, the current CFR is going to be lower than the global CFR you cited.

CFR is always higher, because most people with COVID will not notice they have it [1]. Thus, we need scientific modeling to determine the number.

Moreover, I am not arguing that vulnerable populations do not exist. Merely that the death rates are so non-uniformly distributed, that it really doesn't make sense to have a uniform policy on all age groups / background conditions. The data tell a lot different story.

[1] From the study: The exponential pattern of our age-specific IFR estimates is qualitatively similar to that of case fatality rates (CFRs). However, the relative magnitudes are systematically different, reflecting the extent to which asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases are much more common in younger adults than in middle-aged and older adults. For example, the ratio of CFR to IFR is about 15:1 for ages 30–49, about 7:1 for ages 50–69, and about 5:1 for ages 70–79 years

Re: Vaccinated Americans more likely to die from a lightning strike than Covid

#20

Post by Fjolsvith »

neolog wrote: post #3

- 41 lightning deaths per year in the USA [1] out of 328M people. 41/328M = 1.25e-7 - 1,263 covid deaths in the USA out of 163M vaccinated [2]. 1263/163M = 7.75e-6 and it's not even August. Seems wrong, by more than (vaccinated=1263/163M)/(lightning=41/328M) = 62x. Or am I missing something? [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/06/08/us-weather... [2] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-department…

No, you pegged the piece properly.
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