'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World • Hacker News Board

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#11

Post by tapgnid » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 9:57 AM UTC

shrubby wrote: post #9

nprateem wrote: post #2

Maybe they'll finally start to do something about it then.

Who is"them"? Its a matter of system change but also the neglected part of individual responsibility. At least in the form that we need to be more active by pressuring and electing decision makers. To act on our behalf and bot the corporate/offshore world. https://econormalisation.kapsi.fi/ this was an incomplete but interesting take on a possible solution.

Setting a cap and communicating the target for personal emissions would be unkind to all billionaires and politicians. Thus aint gonna happen. Also this way of thinking will hilight a culprit. One that definitely doesn't want to be hilighted.

Besides the normal peoples guilt will be a huge blocker for anyone to even start thinking about personal cap.

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#12

Post by ChrisMarshallNY » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 10:04 AM UTC

One of the issues with anything that makes money, is that it encourages a “race to make a pile.”

People want to make as big a pile of money as possible, as quickly as they can, with the idea that the pile will be big enough to allow them (and just them) to be secure for the rest of their (and just their) lives.

That attitude runs directly counter to the long-term planning, and sacrifice for the greater good, that is necessary to combat things like this.

Some Asian nations, with their focus on Society, may be better equipped to deal with this, than nations that heavily promote individual achievement.

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#13

Post by cagenut » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 10:05 AM UTC

js8 wrote: post #10

vldmrs wrote: post #5

Could anyone point me to studies/research on how different parts of the world will be affected by climate change ? I would like to know how the place I am currently living at will be different now vs 10-30 years from today.

The IPCC report is a good start: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ The AR6 version is supposed to come out next year.

AR5 is great, SR15 is more recent: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/

I particularly find skipping to the graphics page and looking for maps useful for answering peoples geography related questions.

One thing to keep in mind is that report was overall meant to illustrate the difference between a 1.5 and a 2C outcome, but at this point 1.5C is toast and 2C would be an optimistic outcome so you can just skip to the 2C graphs for your estimating purposes.

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#14

Post by bluepanda928752 » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 10:06 AM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #8

nivenkos wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like we saw with the lockdown policies. Heavily tax mass transit but allow private jets, etc.

Mass transit isn't taxed, it's heavily subsidized by taxes.

Often but not always; Hong Kong is one of the exceptions I think (at least the MTR)

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#15

Post by canoebuilder » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 10:09 AM UTC

vldmrs wrote: post #5

Could anyone point me to studies/research on how different parts of the world will be affected by climate change ? I would like to know how the place I am currently living at will be different now vs 10-30 years from today.

The relentless doom saying gives the impression that there are some studies or research or science out there that can accurately make predictions of the sort you are interested in, but as far as I know that’s not the case. I’m not aware of any system with a track record of predicting climates that far out.

A volcano could erupt tomorrow and create much cooler climates around the world.

Al Gore’s movie from the early 2000s said Florida would be underwater by now. What’s the actual sea level rise in the intervening period been? A cm or 2, if that?

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#16

Post by mschuster91 » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 10:15 AM UTC

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #12

One of the issues with anything that makes money, is that it encourages a “race to make a pile.” People want to make as big a pile of money as possible, as quickly as they can, with the idea that the pile will be big enough to allow them (and just them) to be secure for the rest of their (and just their) lives. That attitude runs directly counter to the long-term planning, and sacrifice for the greater good, that is…

> People want to make as big a pile of money as possible, as quickly as they can, with the idea that the pile will be big enough to allow them (and just them) to be secure for the rest of their (and just their) lives.

In a society as cut-throat capitalist as the US, yes. In "welfare states" such as Europe, where everyone has their basic needs in life (housing, healthcare and food) at least somewhat met, this desire is far less pronounced.

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#17

Post by bluepanda928752 » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 10:15 AM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #8

nivenkos wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like we saw with the lockdown policies. Heavily tax mass transit but allow private jets, etc.

Mass transit isn't taxed, it's heavily subsidized by taxes.

Also, the parent is probably talking about EU intent to apply carbon tax to mass market airlines but exempt the private jets

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#18

Post by tapgnid » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 10:16 AM UTC

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #12

One of the issues with anything that makes money, is that it encourages a “race to make a pile.” People want to make as big a pile of money as possible, as quickly as they can, with the idea that the pile will be big enough to allow them (and just them) to be secure for the rest of their (and just their) lives. That attitude runs directly counter to the long-term planning, and sacrifice for the greater good, that is…

To some parts this is a matter of education. It's been studied that few years of economic school makes people more greedy and selfish so I'm tempted to think that it'd also work the other way. And what is the capitalist society for people living in it if not a school of economics.

https://www.npr.org/2017/02/21/516375434/does-studying-econo...

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#19

Post by ithkuil » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 10:23 AM UTC

canoebuilder wrote: post #15

vldmrs wrote: post #5

Could anyone point me to studies/research on how different parts of the world will be affected by climate change ? I would like to know how the place I am currently living at will be different now vs 10-30 years from today.

The relentless doom saying gives the impression that there are some studies or research or science out there that can accurately make predictions of the sort you are interested in, but as far as I know that’s not the case. I’m not aware of any system with a track record of predicting climates that far out. A volcano could erupt tomorrow and create much cooler climates around the world. Al Gore’s movie from the early…

> Al Gore’s movie from the early 2000s said Florida would be underwater by now.

Would our could?

If a volcano could erupt then perhaps the sea also could rise?

It's sad that it's so hard to talk about which of these are more likely without bringing up one's whole political identity into the discussion.

Re: 'No One Is Safe': How the Heatwave Has Battered the Wealthy World

#20

Post by premium-lizard » Sun, Jul 18, 2021, 10:28 AM UTC

canoebuilder wrote: post #15

vldmrs wrote: post #5

Could anyone point me to studies/research on how different parts of the world will be affected by climate change ? I would like to know how the place I am currently living at will be different now vs 10-30 years from today.

The relentless doom saying gives the impression that there are some studies or research or science out there that can accurately make predictions of the sort you are interested in, but as far as I know that’s not the case. I’m not aware of any system with a track record of predicting climates that far out. A volcano could erupt tomorrow and create much cooler climates around the world. Al Gore’s movie from the early…

> I’m not aware of any system with a track record of predicting climates that far out.

This is right. Nor is there going to be any such system. The climate is a complex system, meaning it's fundamentally not amenable to simulation. All the models are toys compared to the reality. None of them even attempt to actually simulate what's going on. Not only is it impossible because we don't even know what the phenomena are, it's extra impossible because there's not enough computational power. I doubt humanity is capable of accurately simulating the sugar in a stirred cup of coffee, much less figuring out what's going to be happening with the atmosphere tomorrow, much less 30 years from now.

The models are (unavoidably, necessarily) just toys. They don't predict the future. Anyone who tells you that they are predicting the future with them is malicious or extremely naive. The models just masquerade as science to support political goals.