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Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

doxa.substack.com

11–20 of 69 posts

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#11
But why actually cutting-edge semiconductors are *this* important?

Isn't endgame war tech solved problem for like N decades?

What's the usecase? better AI? computer vision? research?

aren't computational resources for those provided by super computers?

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#13
post #8
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I heard it put this way once: the US can’t stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan any more than China could stop a hypothetical US invasion of Cuba. In both cases it’s a battle right off the coast of a superpower with pretty massive home court advantage to the closer nation. Right off shore means no supply lines and the ability to just fire shit from shore at enemy ships and planes. The entire industrial output of the clo…

Given some warning the US could actually stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The US Navy has the second most powerful air force in the world just behind the US Air Force. That’s the rather insane scale we’ve invested into the current military. Cruse missiles are a different story, China could trivially destroy TSMC’s factories. That said, the US is hardly the only nation likely to react to such an invasion.

US couldn't stop the Japanese from invading Philippines.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#15
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given some warning the US could actually stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The US Navy has the second most powerful air force in the world just behind the US Air Force. That’s the rather insane scale we’ve invested into the current military. Cruse missiles are a different story, China could trivially destroy TSMC’s factories. That said, the US is hardly the only nation likely to react to such an invasion.

US couldn't stop the Japanese from invading Philippines.

A lot has changed since then

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#16
While semiconductors are a very important part of industry, it's naive to think that a loss of Taiwanese output would be as disastrous as this article suggests.

Consider the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, they are much larger than any such loss would have, yet this pandemic didn't have any acute large-scale effect on geopolitics (though it will like have a longer-term, and some what unpredictable effect).

A much larger long-term effect of China's ambitions towards Taiwan would likely be seen in China's growing economic might resulting in a shifting of alliances/allegiances of East Asian countries between the US and China.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#17
post #7
post #4

Near the end of the article, Steve Blanks is quoted... Alternatively, Beijing may seek to negotiate with or coerce Taipei (or both) in order to allow China sole access to TSMC and block chip exports to the United States, thereby securing China’s own supply while crippling American industry. But earlier in the article it's mentioned that the US effectively has a "kill switch" on TSMC (by cutting off key supplies neede…

You aren’t missing any detail from what I understand. A core focus of US national security this decade is securing chip fabrication capability that is not endangered by global supply chain disruptions - or making the cost of the disruption unreasonably high to the disruptor.

Mutually assured unproductivity seems like the setup for the next bond plot.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#18
Given how smoothly chinas invasion of Hong Kong went, I wondered how far back one had to go to find similar articles about how China couldn’t invade Hong Kong. But searching for the headline with Hong Kong instead of Taiwan only returns results regarding China and Taiwan.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#19
The world would have much bigger problems than semiconductors if a full blown war happened in Taiwan.

It won’t happen anyway. China is just Sabre rattling and beating its chest for political gain.

If they were going to do it then it should have been on Trumps watch, when there was no certainty at all the USA would back its allies in a conflict. Not that there’s much certainty now.

Re: Why a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a catastrophe for China and the world

#20
post #16

While semiconductors are a very important part of industry, it's naive to think that a loss of Taiwanese output would be as disastrous as this article suggests. Consider the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, they are much larger than any such loss would have, yet this pandemic didn't have any acute large-scale effect on geopolitics (though it will like have a longer-term, and some what unpredictable effect). A muc…

Considering TSMC's share of chip fabrication business, it would be fairly disruptive. TSMC does have the dominant position in the sub-7nm cutting-edge processing nodes, used primarily by companies like Apple, Qualcomm and nVidia, but at least some of them, Qualcomm and nVidia, have been diversifying their sources (primarily to Samsung) while Apple seems to have everything in one basket. But then, who cares about Apple?
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