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Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

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Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#11
post #6

I've been acquainted with a number of engineers at various autonomous vehicle companies and they are some of the most reserved people when it comes to the reality of autonomous driving. Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I think when domain experts speak up like this we should listen. The autonomous vehicle technology seems like it has a long way to…

This reminds me of the first bubble. Everyone on the inside were looking at each other as stock and salaries skyrocketed thinking this was crazy and unsustainable. But we all just shrugged because there was no stopping the hype train. Here, anyone even just tangentially involved or know the some details of AI/ML are highly skeptical that Elon's vision of self driving cars will occur in our lifetime. Yet, Elon keeps p…

To be fair to Elon, there were a lot of naysayers coming at him about Tesla and SpaceX but he has accomplished more than they ever thought he would. Most of the time, however he has exaggerated the timeline in order to keep the hype around him and his companies. I think he would do better to under-promise and over-deliver. Especially with a technology that could potentially cost lives if delivered too early.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#13

I've been acquainted with a number of engineers at various autonomous vehicle companies and they are some of the most reserved people when it comes to the reality of autonomous driving. Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I think when domain experts speak up like this we should listen. The autonomous vehicle technology seems like it has a long way to…

Work at Waymo. Know lots of folks at Cruise. This is not reflective of the general outlook that most engineers have.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#14

I still can’t get over how deceptive the marketing was on the Autopilot page on Tesla.com >Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Cars >All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver. How was it possible to know in advance what hardware will be required?

What would they need the better hardware for?

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#15
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reminds me of the first bubble. Everyone on the inside were looking at each other as stock and salaries skyrocketed thinking this was crazy and unsustainable. But we all just shrugged because there was no stopping the hype train. Here, anyone even just tangentially involved or know the some details of AI/ML are highly skeptical that Elon's vision of self driving cars will occur in our lifetime. Yet, Elon keeps p…

To be fair to Elon, there were a lot of naysayers coming at him about Tesla and SpaceX but he has accomplished more than they ever thought he would. Most of the time, however he has exaggerated the timeline in order to keep the hype around him and his companies. I think he would do better to under-promise and over-deliver. Especially with a technology that could potentially cost lives if delivered too early.

The way I like to think about it, Elon Musk over over over over promises, and "just" over delivers. Most CEOs could never dream of producing the kinds of real results that Elon Musk has, but also most CEOs aren't as comically obnoxious as he is.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#16

I've been acquainted with a number of engineers at various autonomous vehicle companies and they are some of the most reserved people when it comes to the reality of autonomous driving. Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I think when domain experts speak up like this we should listen. The autonomous vehicle technology seems like it has a long way to…

I don’t know, I used to ride an autonomous vehicle every day in London. DLR is autonomous, the catch is - it has its own lane and it’s on rails. Also, someone sits in the car during rush hours, just in case.

Here’s how it looks to be in the front car of the train when there’s a supervisor: https://imgur.com/geFIidK

Outside of the rush hour, that lid is closed and it feels like the Half-Life train at beginning of the game.

I know it’s not possible to build trains to everywhere and USA is huge but I suspect that the answer for self driving would be somewhere in between of human+ level intelligence and dedicated infrastructure.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#17

I've been acquainted with a number of engineers at various autonomous vehicle companies and they are some of the most reserved people when it comes to the reality of autonomous driving. Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I think when domain experts speak up like this we should listen. The autonomous vehicle technology seems like it has a long way to…

It's an incredibly hard problem to solve.

The Boring Company might be onto something. These tunnels are a very controlled environment, highly predictable. If they can be be made cheaper it might just be the initial "killer app" of self-driving cars.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#18
This is basically hearsay. The claim in the title is based on this:

"“Elon’s tweet does not match engineering reality per CJ,” Miguel Acosta, chief of the California DMV’s autonomous vehicles branch, wrote in the memo"

So someone in the CA BMV claims a Tesla engineer (CJ) said this, but doesn't quote them, and the article doesn't elaborate on it.

Maybe it's true but they're clearly reaching a bit with the title.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#19
post #16

I've been acquainted with a number of engineers at various autonomous vehicle companies and they are some of the most reserved people when it comes to the reality of autonomous driving. Many of them going so far as to say they would never use one for themselves now or in the near future. I think when domain experts speak up like this we should listen. The autonomous vehicle technology seems like it has a long way to…

I don’t know, I used to ride an autonomous vehicle every day in London. DLR is autonomous, the catch is - it has its own lane and it’s on rails. Also, someone sits in the car during rush hours, just in case. Here’s how it looks to be in the front car of the train when there’s a supervisor: https://imgur.com/geFIidK Outside of the rush hour, that lid is closed and it feels like the Half-Life train at beginning of the…

We could've vastly expanded a lot of train systems with the amount of money that's been burned trying to make cars drive themselves.

Unfortunately, most new transportation methods that are not trains are just attempts to build trains, while claiming they are not trains and will cost less than trains. But inevitably end up costing as much as trains.

Trains.

Re: Tesla Engineer Says Musk Overstated Tesla Autopilot Reality

#20
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reminds me of the first bubble. Everyone on the inside were looking at each other as stock and salaries skyrocketed thinking this was crazy and unsustainable. But we all just shrugged because there was no stopping the hype train. Here, anyone even just tangentially involved or know the some details of AI/ML are highly skeptical that Elon's vision of self driving cars will occur in our lifetime. Yet, Elon keeps p…

To be fair to Elon, there were a lot of naysayers coming at him about Tesla and SpaceX but he has accomplished more than they ever thought he would. Most of the time, however he has exaggerated the timeline in order to keep the hype around him and his companies. I think he would do better to under-promise and over-deliver. Especially with a technology that could potentially cost lives if delivered too early.

True, I am unfairly singling Elon out, but he's put himself at the front of this hype train. There are plenty of other "visionaries" that are in the engine with him.
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