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US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

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11–20 of 68 posts

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#11
This gives a little overview: https://fortune.com/2020/08/10/us-china-trade-war-semiconduc...

Sounds like a tricky situation for everyone, don't want to alienate Taiwan or Apple or China. And TSMC is building capacity in the US. It isn't really a West vs. East game.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#13
I think TSMC over estimates how state sponsored fabs would look like. I can predict now that it will be a disaster and many billions will be funnelled to bureaucrat friends through questionable procurement. If there is going to be a miracle and they actually build a fab, it will be lacking as they will not find specialists willing to work for EU wages and level of taxation.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#14
post #9

It may be true that TSMC and Samsung can meet demand during normal times, but it completely misses the point that NA and EU want significant production capacity locally not to reduce costs, but to secure a critical supply chain. Is this a situation where he may be concerned that significant expansion of production capability away from Taiwan and SK will reduce the West’s reliance on TSMC, which may be a security risk…

And frankly, this is everyone's motivation. EU wants to not depend on TSMC. US has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. China has gone all-in to not depend on TSMC. And there are even rumors that Russia is trying to build their capabilities in this regard.

I think the leadership at TSMC is being a little naive. Alternatively, they may know very well what's going on here and they are being willfully obtuse to paint as bright a picture as possible of their long-term prospects.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#15
"We built enough capacity for the world so you shouldn't build any local capacity to ensure resiliency of supply chains because this will harm the current efficiency of our monopoly position."

These people are awful.

That's like saying you should never use anything other than RAID0 because anything else costs you more for the same performance. Yeah, sometimes cost/performance aren't the only important metrics!

The pandemic has literally been a real-life example of the downsides of the approach he is advocating.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unrealistic given how much fab facotiries cost. Your tariff method would work for say mining copper or say iron screws but not for a fab factory as it can't really be scaled halfway

What's the US military budget? Let's say DOD decides it wants onshore chips. $10B is peanuts; $100B is easily doable if they say it's important enough- which it is.

They probably already have fabs.

Re: US, Europe 'unrealistic' in fab expansion drive, says TSMC chair

#20
Semi is oil now, there's more strategic/geopolitical considerations than supply/demand curve. US/EU/CN do not want Taiwan to have semi dominance, it's not in anyone's interest. Current TSMC position is happenstance due to poor industrial policies that countries are scrambling to address. IMO press releases and capex spending around Arizona announcement suggest TSMC wasn't prepared to built US fab, let alone 6. US pressured them, EU failed to. There's a good chance TSMC/Taiwan will try to delay their silicon shield evaporating for as long as they can. Probably not a coincidence big ticket US weapons sales are scheduled around when fabs would be up. Future will be priority sourcing from domestic fabs, let TSMC whither, by design.
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