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US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

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Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#11

Post by cycomanic »

cies wrote: post #7
consp wrote: post #4

A similar page for Europe: https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

This is what I've been looking at a lot lately. I dont trust any data related to PCR-tests, as those tests are not one but many tests. The number of cycles used, and the number of chains looked for is different from PCR to PCR making their results useless for me as an interested outsider who wants to do some calculations. Hence I turn to excess all cause mortality as my main figure. I personally know 2 people that ha…

Well the interesting thing is that the Euromono data shows a similar trend as the US data, especially if including the 2018 data. The 15-44 year olds while essentially not affected by the 2018 flu did see a spike for covid. I think it would be interesting if the group could be further split up into 15-24 and 25-44 year olds, like the US data.

Regarding the 2018 flu spike, putting things into perspective. I would say yes it does, because it shows how significantly bigger the spike for covid was/is.

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#12

Post by ppf »

throwaway13337 wrote: post #5

According to this, the percentage-wise deviation from normal range the last year has been worst for 25-44 year olds. Absolute number of deaths is, of course, higher for the elderly. But the relative change is biggest in that age group. That's a rather different narrative than I've heard. I wonder what could explain it? Secondary issues related to but not covid?

By "narrative", I assume you mean the idea that "Covid doesn't affect the young by very much".

Taken as a proportion of total Covid deaths, that is very true.

Given that practically no young people die in developed countries, it doesn't take much to make a big change to the excess mortality figure for that age group.

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#13

Post by cies »

cycomanic wrote: post #11
cies wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what I've been looking at a lot lately. I dont trust any data related to PCR-tests, as those tests are not one but many tests. The number of cycles used, and the number of chains looked for is different from PCR to PCR making their results useless for me as an interested outsider who wants to do some calculations. Hence I turn to excess all cause mortality as my main figure. I personally know 2 people that ha…

Well the interesting thing is that the Euromono data shows a similar trend as the US data, especially if including the 2018 data. The 15-44 year olds while essentially not affected by the 2018 flu did see a spike for covid. I think it would be interesting if the group could be further split up into 15-24 and 25-44 year olds, like the US data. Regarding the 2018 flu spike, putting things into perspective. I would say…

> significantly bigger

In some cases. See the Euromomo z-index data per country. Some are unaffected by the flu and C19.

Where flu kills tops 0.1% of a population, C19 seems to kill 0.8% at most.

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#14

Post by tialaramex »

cies wrote: post #9
consp wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind the following: the flue spike was without any decent form of measures. We can do a lot to reduce those. Also note that while your anacdotal evidence is sad, it does not take into account that without those measures they might have been as badly off as well due to even more sick people being around at the same time. People easily blame measures but forget that the alternative might be even worse.

> the flue spike was without any decent form of measures I agree flu vaccines are worthless. :) > People easily blame measures but forget that the alternative might be even worse. Totally agree! But I'm just saying that the spike also contain collateral deaths (for lack of a better word). And yes it's totally anecdotal that I know two of those, and not know even one person who was even hospitalized from C19.

The effectiveness of seasonal Influenza vaccination depends on two things. First we have to guess which Influenza strains to vaccinate against, if we guess the wrong strains then it doesn't much matter that you're immune because you got a different strain anyway. Second the virus drifts even if we guess perfectly and it might evade the vaccine.

When you get the jab, both these things are still hard or impossible to know, so as long as the side effects of vaccination remain very mild for almost everybody it's worth a shot (pun intended). Some years it works very well indeed.

It's worth distinguishing between deaths due to measures imposed to manage the pandemic (which we could have hypothetically avoided by just allowing the pandemic to run its course, presumably killing millions more people) and those due to direct consequences of the pandemic which you can't avoid except by hypothesising "What if magically this virus didn't exist?". For example hospitals get overrun with patients and withdraw all but emergency care, resulting in excess deaths, but you can't wish that away. Or people are too scared of the virus to seek help so they die unnecessarily, again nowhere (except maybe China at the extreme?) told people "You must not leave your home to escape a violent partner" or "Don't call an ambulance if you have a heart attack, you might get infected" so those deaths aren't a result of a policy decision they're a consequence of the pandemic itself.

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#17

Post by enkid »

usr1106 wrote: post #6
throwaway13337 wrote: post #5

According to this, the percentage-wise deviation from normal range the last year has been worst for 25-44 year olds. Absolute number of deaths is, of course, higher for the elderly. But the relative change is biggest in that age group. That's a rather different narrative than I've heard. I wonder what could explain it? Secondary issues related to but not covid?

My explanation has been that many of the elderly who died from covid did not have much live expectation left because they had suffered multiple diseases already. So in excess deaths they don't show that big, even though there were many cases. But the 25-44 olds would still have decades left, so every death makes a greater impact on excess deaths of their age group. But my statistics math is on a very basic level...

That's not what excess deaths mean. Excess deaths is number of deaths above previous years average. It has nothing to do with age, other than tracking who has died at what age.

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#18

Post by jinjin2 »

cies wrote: post #7
consp wrote: post #4

A similar page for Europe: https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

This is what I've been looking at a lot lately. I dont trust any data related to PCR-tests, as those tests are not one but many tests. The number of cycles used, and the number of chains looked for is different from PCR to PCR making their results useless for me as an interested outsider who wants to do some calculations. Hence I turn to excess all cause mortality as my main figure. I personally know 2 people that ha…

> I personally know 2 people that had their lives shortened by the measures instead of the virus itself

If you look at the global rates of excess deaths:

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386... (look under “Death rates”)

It looks like the countries that had early and hard shutdowns (like Denmark and S. Korea), had almost zero excess deaths. Which at least to me seems to indicate that the shutdowns themselves have very low impact.

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#19

Post by londons_explore »

phkahler wrote: post #16

I dont doubt Covid has caused a bunch of these deaths, particularly in the first wave. But it would be nice to break out suicides and overdoses, as mental health issues are on the rise as a result of lockdowns and the economic fallout.

The fact that the 0-24 age range (typically dominated by car accidents and suicides) doesn't see much change suggests that the effect you are suggesting is small or nonexistent.

Re: US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

#20

Post by OnACoffeeBreak »

jinjin2 wrote: post #18
cies wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what I've been looking at a lot lately. I dont trust any data related to PCR-tests, as those tests are not one but many tests. The number of cycles used, and the number of chains looked for is different from PCR to PCR making their results useless for me as an interested outsider who wants to do some calculations. Hence I turn to excess all cause mortality as my main figure. I personally know 2 people that ha…

> I personally know 2 people that had their lives shortened by the measures instead of the virus itself If you look at the global rates of excess deaths: https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386... (look under “Death rates”) It looks like the countries that had early and hard shutdowns (like Denmark and S. Korea), had almost zero excess deaths. Which at least to me seems to indicate that the shutd…

I don't think we have the data to answer the question posed by the grandparent comment. Lifespans have likely been reduced by response to the pandemic. Those whose lifespans have been reduced are still alive and are not showing up in death statistics today.

For example, my grandmother-in-law was selfsufficient before the pandemic. During the pandemic she pretty much stayed in her apartment which resulted in significant loss of mobility. We're not sure whether she'll regain her selfsufficiency, which will probably result in her dying sooner rather than later.

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