> As the number of programmers increases, the demand for programmers grows exponentially faster because we can create whatever widgets we want on our phone and sell them for whatever. It’s just infinite leverage at infinite scale for basically free. Just because software doesn't have the same physical limitations, doesn't mean its usefulness and market value are unlimited. We use software to get physical output, even…
The American-Dream-as-a-Service
11–20 of 24 posts
Re: The American-Dream-as-a-Service
#12> As the number of programmers increases, the demand for programmers grows exponentially faster because we can create whatever widgets we want on our phone and sell them for whatever. It’s just infinite leverage at infinite scale for basically free. Just because software doesn't have the same physical limitations, doesn't mean its usefulness and market value are unlimited. We use software to get physical output, even…
Agreed. If a barista can go from zero to full stack developer in six months and there’s no barrier to entry like lawyers/doctors have, salaries are going to crash. It’s only a matter of when.
People like Jeff Dean will always make big bucks.
Re: The American-Dream-as-a-Service
#13That is the real question -- the lender is taking on all the underwriting and credit analysis risk that the student will not get a job in their field of study, at which point the loan is discharged. There is a reason why banks have historically not done this, and it has nothing to do with them being unimaginative, but rather that the credit analysis is too difficult for them to do at anything like a reasonable rate of interest that people are willing to pay.
I don't care whether you call it equity or another type of liability, it still must be repaid and the books must balance, and I am skeptical that this is going to happen, nor do I think that the lenders are aware of the pit of liability they are wading into.
Here are some scenarios:
1. Moral hazard.
Lots of people sign up who simply lack the talent to do well in tech or decide they are bored with it. There is no cost to them, they can walk away from the obligation by quitting the program or by graduating and then looking for a job outside their field. How do you deal with that?
2. Difficulties of innovative credit analysis in the current environment.
As you are talking about education, it is a politically sensitive topic because if you find yourself charging different rates to people based on race/gender ex post (even though you do not take race/gender into account anywhere in your credit analysis) you are still opening yourself up to massive liability and charges of sexisam/racism. So major financial institutions are very heavily regulated as to their credit analysis inputs and algorithms and do not attempt to compete by being more efficient at credit analysis, as there is already a platoon of people ready to scream discrimination if any algorithm results in different outcomes for different groups. Thus no one gets creative the with algorithms.
What this means is that this start up cannot compete on credit analysis by trying to find a better algorithm. That means there isn't a lot of innovation possible in the credit analysis space right now. This means you will not be able to defend yourself against the moral hazard risk outlined in #1 above except by charging high interest.
3. Market weakness.
If students graduate in a recession, you will receive a lot less income than banks do on mortgages because there is no collateral or cost to defer. In a boom you will receive a lot more. You are taking on alot more volatility, and therefore must charge more.
4. Accusations of Usury/slavery.
Because of the above, the interest charged will need to be high and so you will get a lot people complaining about unfairness that they borrowed 10,000 but are repaying 100,000 to these sharks that are leeching off their income, and how fair is to have to repay so much. In the current climate, it is very important to seem fair. People will accuse of you taking advantage of them.
So while I do want them to succeed, I'm not sure if they can succeed in the current environment.
Re: The American-Dream-as-a-Service
#14> As the number of programmers increases, the demand for programmers grows exponentially faster because we can create whatever widgets we want on our phone and sell them for whatever. It’s just infinite leverage at infinite scale for basically free. Just because software doesn't have the same physical limitations, doesn't mean its usefulness and market value are unlimited. We use software to get physical output, even…
There may be a limit to software demand but we are far from reaching it. So far the demand appears to be practically infinite. The more software we have, the more we want and the more we are willing to pay for it. (By "we" I mean the total worldwide software market, not just consumers.)
Re: The American-Dream-as-a-Service
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
Agreed. If a barista can go from zero to full stack developer in six months and there’s no barrier to entry like lawyers/doctors have, salaries are going to crash. It’s only a matter of when.
Except that software developers mostly create problems for future developers to solve, increasing -- not decreasing -- demand. The barrier of entry has always been low, yet salaries have only gone up.
Re: The American-Dream-as-a-Service
#16I think people need to realize you’re getting a terrible deal when you give Lambda School x% of your earnings at your first job. Also as someone who went to college and paid for it myself these bootcamps are detracting from my American Dream because they’re empowering corporations to pay lower salaries to everyone because they have boot camp grads eager to be paid lower wages. Other specialized fields don’t allow thi…
Re: The American-Dream-as-a-Service
#17I'm feel very lucky to have gotten my first "programming job" without a technical interview (it was an unpaid high-school internship that I turned into a programming job, and eventually became full-time after I was old enough to be an employee). Interviews are still tough for me, I have experienced interview anxiety extreme enough that I went home instead of continuing a day of on-sites. The interview anxiety is tota…
I suggest practicing over and over again to reduce your anxiety. We all feel anxious when doing a whiteboard or now VC interview where they can ask you anything and you feel like you have to instantly answer.
VC interviews also seem very high pressure! I've met folks making funding decisions, but never been in the hot seat with them. It does seem closer to the "walk me through your portfolio/a project" interview than a whiteboard interview. Although obviously the stakes can be much higher.
Re: The American-Dream-as-a-Service
#18Earlier quoted context omitted.
There may be a limit to software demand but we are far from reaching it. So far the demand appears to be practically infinite. The more software we have, the more we want and the more we are willing to pay for it. (By "we" I mean the total worldwide software market, not just consumers.)
Possibly. But I don't think that trend can hold forever. There are only so many eyeballs and hours in the day per person.
Re: The American-Dream-as-a-Service
#19I'm feel very lucky to have gotten my first "programming job" without a technical interview (it was an unpaid high-school internship that I turned into a programming job, and eventually became full-time after I was old enough to be an employee). Interviews are still tough for me, I have experienced interview anxiety extreme enough that I went home instead of continuing a day of on-sites. The interview anxiety is tota…
I suggest practicing over and over again to reduce your anxiety. We all feel anxious when doing a whiteboard or now VC interview where they can ask you anything and you feel like you have to instantly answer.
Anxiety isn't related to experience (or actual competence). When it's on the level mentioned, what works is CBT (if you're lucky). That may include practice, but it will certainly not be the only element.
Re: The American-Dream-as-a-Service
#20> As the number of programmers increases, the demand for programmers grows exponentially faster because we can create whatever widgets we want on our phone and sell them for whatever. It’s just infinite leverage at infinite scale for basically free. Just because software doesn't have the same physical limitations, doesn't mean its usefulness and market value are unlimited. We use software to get physical output, even…