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The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

gmo.com

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Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

#11
post #4

This is a great article. Note it's from January 5th, and it's extremely speculative. But certainly at least worth adding to the overall amount of signals that stock investors are thinking. I think I remember someone saying that in 1929 when the shoeshine boys were giving stock advice that that's how someone knew the bubble was about to burst. Lately I've been discussing investment strategies with the people that work…

Or, it could just be that far more people are investors today than there were in 1929. According to this site, only about 10% of Americans owned stock or speculated in the markets in 1929.

>In fact, only approximately 10 percent of American households held stock investments and speculated in the market; yet nearly a third would lose their lifelong savings and jobs in the ensuing depression.

https://courses.lumenlearning.com/atd-hostos-ushistory/chapt...

Yet, this poll seems to indicate that around 55% of Americans now hold stocks.

>Thus far in 2020, Gallup finds 55% of Americans reporting that they own stock, based on polls conducted in March and April. This is identical to the average 55% recorded in 2019 and similar to the average of 54% Gallup has measured since 2010.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-own...

So if slightly more than one out of every two people you meet owns stocks, I would assume you're bound to run into a lot of people talking about stocks.

Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

#12
post #5

Looking at historical S&P 500 to Gold ratio, stocks are definitely more expensive but nowhere near dotcom frenzy. Either we see market correction or gold is undervalued and will catch up. In that case there might be no stock market crash. https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart

Gold is not a suitable comparison to stocks - it gets brought up on here all the time. Gold is not uncorrelated to the market. Gold is not a store of value. Gold is a speculative investment with a great marketing team.

Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

#13

I agree with the basic take that stock prices are ludicrous, but what's different this time(tm) is that there don't seem to be any alternatives. Bonds are overpriced, real estate is not cheap, and Biden's $1.6T printer go brr money faucet ensures that there's going to be even more money sloshing around for the foreseeable future. Also, whereas the dotcom bubble darlings were all massively unprofitable, this time arou…

Emerging markets and value stocks are historically cheap on a relative basis, see the What to Do? section at the end of the article.

Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

#14
Just keep buying.

A post by Nick Maggiulli in 2017:

> Many investors focus on the right time to buy stocks because they don’t want to buy near a peak in case of a future market crash. I understand the feeling. With the market near all time highs in early 2017, it can be tempting to hold off until there is a larger negative adjustment in prices.

> The only problem with this approach is the market could go up for a significant period of time before a correction happens.

> For example, if you search “stock market overvalued 2012” on Google you can find plenty of stories discussing how overvalued stocks were in 2012. If you had started waiting for an S&P 500 correction then, you would have missed out on the ~70+% increase in prices from 2012 through early 2017.

* https://ofdollarsanddata.com/just-keep-buying/

And what has the S&P 500 done since 2017? Continuing:

> If I still haven’t convinced you, let me tell you a story. The story is about a man with possibly the worst luck in investing history.[0][1] He made a total of 4 large stock purchases between 1973 and 2007. He bought in 1973 before a 48% decline in stocks, bought in 1987 before a 34% decline, bought in 2000 before the dot com crash, and bought in 2007 before the Great Recession.

> Despite these 4 individual purchases that totaled a little less than $200,000, how did he do? He ended up with a $980,000 profit for a 9% annualized return. What was his secret? He never sold.

> That’s right. Selling out is literally selling out your future wealth. You need to hold on to your assets as you acquire more.

> This is the purpose of capitalism (i.e. acquiring capital). The only time you should sell your investments is for rebalancing (annually/quarterly, etc.) or in retirement. Otherwise, you already know the mantra.

* [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/27/the-inspiring-story-of-the-w...

* [1] https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market...

And as Maggiulli shows, trying to buy the dip, even when you know when the dip will occur (which is impossible), gives worse results than simply putting away a little bit every month:

* https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-co...

Put away a little every pay cheque, in a diversified low-fee fund (S&P 500, Total Market/Russell 3000), at a comfortable risk profile that allows you to sleep at night (0/20/40% bonds), and try not to pay attention too much about what The Market™ is doing. Most of us are investing for retirement, and if you do the above, you'll probably end up with a decent nest egg.

Save a little for the future, and enjoy the present.

Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

#15
it is not equity that is overpriced. it is that printed dollar that is overpriced (cash is trash). any bond guarantees long-term loss. In 1990, 2k, 2008 investors could escape from equities to bonds with 6% yield, but now they have nowhere to go. That concludes that this bubble will continue as long as interest rate remains near zero.

Federal Reserve basically cornered the entire market into equities, investors have literally nowhere to go. even if 1% of equities capital escape into any other asset class - emerging markets, real estate, alternatives, crypto, whatever - it will create even more gigantic bubble in that asset class that will surely pop without the FED's support

Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

#16

I agree with the basic take that stock prices are ludicrous, but what's different this time(tm) is that there don't seem to be any alternatives. Bonds are overpriced, real estate is not cheap, and Biden's $1.6T printer go brr money faucet ensures that there's going to be even more money sloshing around for the foreseeable future. Also, whereas the dotcom bubble darlings were all massively unprofitable, this time arou…

Emerging markets and value stocks are historically cheap on a relative basis, see the What to Do? section at the end of the article.

If the US stock market collapses, they'll go down too. They might go down less, but if the bubble is going to burst, you'd still be better off keeping your money out until then and only buying once they're cheap.

Of course, this requires being able to time the markets twice, which is... non-trivial.

Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

#17
post #4

This is a great article. Note it's from January 5th, and it's extremely speculative. But certainly at least worth adding to the overall amount of signals that stock investors are thinking. I think I remember someone saying that in 1929 when the shoeshine boys were giving stock advice that that's how someone knew the bubble was about to burst. Lately I've been discussing investment strategies with the people that work…

Or, it could just be that far more people are investors today than there were in 1929. According to this site, only about 10% of Americans owned stock or speculated in the markets in 1929. >In fact, only approximately 10 percent of American households held stock investments and speculated in the market; yet nearly a third would lose their lifelong savings and jobs in the ensuing depression. https://courses.lumenlearn…

I presume most of today’s stock owners are actually owners of 401k account which invests in something like Vanguard Target retirement fund. As a result, they know pretty much nothing about stocks, yet they do own them.

Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

#18
post #3

pragmatic and I enjoy pretending to be a perma-bear as much as the next guy, but if the macro environment leads to more currency being created or distributed than prior times, then nothing is overvalued yet relative to how much money has to be placed into them when it is seeking yield, so that means here I will have to disagree: "But this bubble will burst in due time, no matter how hard the Fed tries to support it"…

Yes, the bubble readers seem to ignore the money creation. However that said, the default bubble is potentially a lurking time bomb, so it's a race between inflation and loan defaults, essentially. (Inflation tends to make loan defaults less likely as it reduces the relative cost of existing loans.)

>the default bubble is potentially a lurking time bomb

Many things are potential lurking time bombs. I can't think of a single period during any bullish market where you could not point to something and claim that that could be a potential end to the bull run.

The problem is when you are in the business of making predictions, if you just scream "Bear" long enough, eventually you'll be right and then you can write a book subtitled, "By the man who called the 2021 (or 2022 or 2023 or 2024 ...) stock crash" and people think you're some sort of genius.

Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

#19
post #5

Looking at historical S&P 500 to Gold ratio, stocks are definitely more expensive but nowhere near dotcom frenzy. Either we see market correction or gold is undervalued and will catch up. In that case there might be no stock market crash. https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart

Gold is not a suitable comparison to stocks - it gets brought up on here all the time. Gold is not uncorrelated to the market. Gold is not a store of value. Gold is a speculative investment with a great marketing team.

Everything is correlated when shit hits the fan. Gold has stored value since forever. These days every investment is highly speculative.

Re: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-Stage Major Bubble

#20

Jeremy Grantham co-founded the investment firm GMO. They're famous for 7 year forecasts by asset classes. Here's the bearish December 2020 forecast: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/gmo-7-year-ass... He's been overly bearish for quite some time, here's the 7 year forecast from December 2009: https://ritholtz.com/2010/01/7-year-asset-class-forecasts/ Here's a recent talk he gave: https://www.youtube.com/w…

Just in case not everyone clicks it, the forecast from 2009 is actually bullish.
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