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Collapse OS – bootstrap post-collapse technology

collapseos.org

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Re: Collapse OS – bootstrap post-collapse technology

#11

Post by camdenlock »

This site pops up on here from time to time, and I can’t escape the fact that it’s driven entirely by the coolness factor of scavenging for parts and making them work.

And it is cool.

But the underlying arguments he makes about imminent collapse are baffling. Imminent collapse due to our oil supply drying up? That’s been an erroneous prediction made for like a century, because we are apparently really bad at predicting what the economics of oil extraction will be in the near future. As it turns out, finding and extracting oil becomes way cheaper, and different categories of extraction tech emerge. The lights stay on, and more people write about the NEXT energy collapse which is totally going to happen.

Also, am I missing something, or does he really not even consider nuclear power? It just seems like such an odd hyperbolic and ungrounded argument overall.

Re: Collapse OS – bootstrap post-collapse technology

#12

Post by analyte123 »

camdenlock wrote: post #11

This site pops up on here from time to time, and I can’t escape the fact that it’s driven entirely by the coolness factor of scavenging for parts and making them work. And it is cool. But the underlying arguments he makes about imminent collapse are baffling. Imminent collapse due to our oil supply drying up? That’s been an erroneous prediction made for like a century, because we are apparently really bad at predicti…

I love the project too, but even if we’re at peak oil (demand) there are still dozens of unexplored or barely touched shale basins around the world. Peak gas is a long way off. And oil & gas infrastructure doesn’t just “rot away” in a year or two due to a pandemic, or it would have already rotted due to the periodic busts that crash the rig count just as much.

It’s interesting how people’s reasons for the impending doom differ with their political leaning. Left leaning people will say we’re running out of resources and soon to be inundated with melted ice caps because we’re too individualistic. Right leaning people say we’re going to turn into Idiocracy because of poor breeding and easy living because there’s too much welfare and immigration.

Re: Collapse OS – bootstrap post-collapse technology

#13

Post by analyte123 »

This could be useful even outside of the global collapse that the creator fears. Imagine a sanctioned country or separatist region that was both completely cut off from the internet and also had all of their computers remotely bricked by remote management engine, malware, or EMP. Maybe the chips in their weapons and radios are shielded and working for now, but how would they bootstrap a new development environment?

Re: Collapse OS – bootstrap post-collapse technology

#14

Post by wffurr »

camdenlock wrote: post #11

This site pops up on here from time to time, and I can’t escape the fact that it’s driven entirely by the coolness factor of scavenging for parts and making them work. And it is cool. But the underlying arguments he makes about imminent collapse are baffling. Imminent collapse due to our oil supply drying up? That’s been an erroneous prediction made for like a century, because we are apparently really bad at predicti…

One of the links in the “why” article gets into more detail and specifically mentions nuclear power: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/the-energy-trap/

There’s also more on the whole phenomenon here: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/deep-adaptation-...

And lots and lots more collapse literature out there if you care to dig into it.

On the one hand, predictions of doom have so far been beaten by technological advancements. On the other hand, we do live on a finite world. On the gripping hand, it’s quite disconcerting to think how rapidly our civilizations and individual lifestyles have changed compared to the vast sweep of human history and prehistory.

Re: Collapse OS – bootstrap post-collapse technology

#15

Post by Wowfunhappy »

analyte123 wrote: post #12
camdenlock wrote: post #11

This site pops up on here from time to time, and I can’t escape the fact that it’s driven entirely by the coolness factor of scavenging for parts and making them work. And it is cool. But the underlying arguments he makes about imminent collapse are baffling. Imminent collapse due to our oil supply drying up? That’s been an erroneous prediction made for like a century, because we are apparently really bad at predicti…

I love the project too, but even if we’re at peak oil (demand) there are still dozens of unexplored or barely touched shale basins around the world. Peak gas is a long way off. And oil & gas infrastructure doesn’t just “rot away” in a year or two due to a pandemic, or it would have already rotted due to the periodic busts that crash the rig count just as much. It’s interesting how people’s reasons for the impending d…

It's tricky though, right, because these sorts of societal collapses do happen! We've seen them many times throughout history.

I think the pure numbers indicate that the next one probably won't happen in my lifetime (good), but I do think it will happen! What makes us think our society is special?

Re: Collapse OS – bootstrap post-collapse technology

#16

Post by omneity »

CollapseOS provides the computation substrate, but is anyone thinking about the kind of computations post apocalyptic communities / individuals might be needing to run?

I imagine things like ledgers, basic simulations, farming yield prediction...

I couldn't find design documents besides the technical constraints it is willing to be compatible with.

Re: Collapse OS – bootstrap post-collapse technology

#18

Post by swirepe »

analyte123 wrote: post #13

This could be useful even outside of the global collapse that the creator fears. Imagine a sanctioned country or separatist region that was both completely cut off from the internet and also had all of their computers remotely bricked by remote management engine, malware, or EMP. Maybe the chips in their weapons and radios are shielded and working for now, but how would they bootstrap a new development environment?

>how would they bootstrap a new development environment?

The worst part of the collapse is going to be remembering everything in my vimrc file

Re: Collapse OS – bootstrap post-collapse technology

#19

Post by wallacoloo »

Love this sort of thing, though less for the post-collapse aspect and more for the dependency-free nature, which provides a certain amount of freedom.

I don’t like that seemingly all accessible bootstrapped projects still rely on non-bootstrappable silicon (like the 8086 here). Does anyone know of an effort to bootstrap the actual computational substrate (i.e. the silicon, or something which serves the same purpose but isn’t silicon)?

Re: Collapse OS – bootstrap post-collapse technology

#20

Post by ncmncm »

camdenlock wrote: post #11

This site pops up on here from time to time, and I can’t escape the fact that it’s driven entirely by the coolness factor of scavenging for parts and making them work. And it is cool. But the underlying arguments he makes about imminent collapse are baffling. Imminent collapse due to our oil supply drying up? That’s been an erroneous prediction made for like a century, because we are apparently really bad at predicti…

Collapse by 2030 is entirely possible under unsurprising circumstances. I rate it as near 50% likelihood, increasing rapidly after:

As climate disruption increases, crop failures in tropical and subtropical countries result in mass migration, first to cities and then toward wealthy temperate countries.

Temperate countries react by electing fascist governments to repel refugees. Fascist governments start wars (as they do), which spiral and disrupt international trade. Trade failure triggers economic crises, which exacerbate wars, ultimately leading to nuclear weapons exchange, and collapse.

Reason to believe: already starting, with no remedial action visible or planned.

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