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The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

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Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

#11

Post by theonething »

lasagnaphil wrote: post #10
tasogare wrote: post #5

I recently asked Chinese coworkers (young, very educated, living abroad) about what they think about this and there were both supporting forceful annexation and thought it will happen someday. Given their profile, the average Chinese staying at home is probably thinking the same too, and supporting invasion too. Pretty depressing.

I think the highly educated Chinese who ventured overseas (which you need to be affluent to do it) doesn’t really represent the majority of the Chinese population at all.

The Chinese in China are even more nationalistic and view Taiwan as a renegade province to be reigned in, forcefully if necessary.

Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

#12

Post by tasogare »

theonething wrote: post #11
lasagnaphil wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the highly educated Chinese who ventured overseas (which you need to be affluent to do it) doesn’t really represent the majority of the Chinese population at all.

The Chinese in China are even more nationalistic and view Taiwan as a renegade province to be reigned in, forcefully if necessary.

Yes, this was the point I tried to express.

Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

#13

Post by andromeduck »

jerzyt wrote: post #7

I have been in Taiwan multiple times on business, but all trips came in two distinct time periods: about 1998 and then 2008. Each time I have spent several weeks there - not a two day trip like airport-hotel-client-hotel-airport. I had a chance to spend weekends with colleagues, and observe how locals spend time. During the first stint (1998) I was impressed how proudly anti-communist the Taiwanese were. Proud of the…

I think attitudes have changed a lot since events in Hong Kong, at least amongst the younger crowd.

Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

#14

Post by esarbe »

bamboleo wrote: post #6

It appears to me that we’re back into imperialism before the end of the century. Who will stop China if they want to expand? Nobody stopped Russia a few years ago. Hong Kong got fucked this year and nobody did anything. China could expand into Kashmir and definitively “own” the South China Sea, including Taiwan. Who will go to war with China? No one.

It has always been that way. Just have a look at the U.S. imperialism in the 20th century.

The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. Thus it has always been.

Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

#15

Post by andromeduck »

bamboleo wrote: post #6

It appears to me that we’re back into imperialism before the end of the century. Who will stop China if they want to expand? Nobody stopped Russia a few years ago. Hong Kong got fucked this year and nobody did anything. China could expand into Kashmir and definitively “own” the South China Sea, including Taiwan. Who will go to war with China? No one.

If the US doesn't defend Taiwan then its defense treaties with Japan and Korea become all but worthless and we'd likely see a major build up if nothing else.

The real danger is if the east and South and South East Asian countries can't put their historical differences behind them and China is allowed to divide and conquer or blitz their way through South East Asia such as via naval blockades of the SCS/Malaca or environmental terrorism via Mekong dam.

Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

#16

Post by andromeduck »

powerapple wrote: post #9
jerzyt wrote: post #7

I have been in Taiwan multiple times on business, but all trips came in two distinct time periods: about 1998 and then 2008. Each time I have spent several weeks there - not a two day trip like airport-hotel-client-hotel-airport. I had a chance to spend weekends with colleagues, and observe how locals spend time. During the first stint (1998) I was impressed how proudly anti-communist the Taiwanese were. Proud of the…

The truth is, China do not want to control Taiwan, and China do not want to lose Taiwan. Sounds contradict but because it is. Let's take Hong Kong for example, Hong Kong has changed China's view on this issue completely. Hong Kong would be a much better asset for China if it is independent but stay Chinese. China does not need another city. The problem is that even though Hong Kong is Chinese, the movement of seeking…

Oh please, the independence movement wouldn't have gotten any traction had they simply continued the original strategy of imparting the changes over generations but the emperor can't appear to be weak and none of the political appointments at the leaison wanted to risk their necks to call out how stupid the strategy was.

Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

#17

Post by andromeduck »

tasogare wrote: post #5

I recently asked Chinese coworkers (young, very educated, living abroad) about what they think about this and there were both supporting forceful annexation and thought it will happen someday. Given their profile, the average Chinese staying at home is probably thinking the same too, and supporting invasion too. Pretty depressing.

This is generally true but I'd also caution that it's a pretty big third rail topic -- for lack of better example, akin to asking your German colleagues if they think Holocaust actually happened or not -- the problem being that you're generally not likely to get a straight answer even if they were sympathetic due to fear of reprisal if a non standard answer were to be discovered out by unsympathetic peers.

Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

#18

Post by Tainnor »

andromeduck wrote: post #17
tasogare wrote: post #5

I recently asked Chinese coworkers (young, very educated, living abroad) about what they think about this and there were both supporting forceful annexation and thought it will happen someday. Given their profile, the average Chinese staying at home is probably thinking the same too, and supporting invasion too. Pretty depressing.

This is generally true but I'd also caution that it's a pretty big third rail topic -- for lack of better example, akin to asking your German colleagues if they think Holocaust actually happened or not -- the problem being that you're generally not likely to get a straight answer even if they were sympathetic due to fear of reprisal if a non standard answer were to be discovered out by unsympathetic peers.

what the hell? apart from some lunatics, no German person denies the Holocaust and this has nothing to do with "reprisals" and everything with proper education. The memory of the Holocaust and the Nazi era is omnipresent in Germany.

Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

#19

Post by sudosysgen »

andromeduck wrote: post #15
bamboleo wrote: post #6

It appears to me that we’re back into imperialism before the end of the century. Who will stop China if they want to expand? Nobody stopped Russia a few years ago. Hong Kong got fucked this year and nobody did anything. China could expand into Kashmir and definitively “own” the South China Sea, including Taiwan. Who will go to war with China? No one.

If the US doesn't defend Taiwan then its defense treaties with Japan and Korea become all but worthless and we'd likely see a major build up if nothing else. The real danger is if the east and South and South East Asian countries can't put their historical differences behind them and China is allowed to divide and conquer or blitz their way through South East Asia such as via naval blockades of the SCS/Malaca or envi…

I'm not sure. There is no treaty that binds the US to defend Taiwan.

Re: The growing peril of war with China over Taiwan

#20

Post by andromeduck »

Tainnor wrote: post #18
andromeduck wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is generally true but I'd also caution that it's a pretty big third rail topic -- for lack of better example, akin to asking your German colleagues if they think Holocaust actually happened or not -- the problem being that you're generally not likely to get a straight answer even if they were sympathetic due to fear of reprisal if a non standard answer were to be discovered out by unsympathetic peers.

what the hell? apart from some lunatics, no German person denies the Holocaust and this has nothing to do with "reprisals" and everything with proper education. The memory of the Holocaust and the Nazi era is omnipresent in Germany.

You're proving my point, that's exactly how they would how they see it. Again I'm not trying to imply the Holocaust didn't happen.
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