2x IPO strike price in first day of trading after $613M recouped stock options after the layoffs. Stock consolidation and 180 day lock up period creates a big risk for when employees sell. Lots of them probably have tens of thousands of shares, exercised them very cheaply, and will want to offload them. I'm not going to touch this stock with a 10-foot pole. I do wish I could short this stock but options aren't available for it yet.
Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
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Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#12For some reason, I just feel this price is too high for them and that it will fall in the coming 2-3 months. Then again, I think about their business model and there’s a lot to like: the don’t own any real estate and if they really wanted to, they could likely let go most of their staff and have a team of maybe 60 - 100 people run the bussiness as it mostly revolves around simply managing the app and keeping it runni…
This comes up a lot (ohh it is a just a crud app and you just need a couple of people)
This is fine and it is common misconception about how large app businesses work. (kudos to airbnb for making complex things look so simple)
Here is a great post about Uber and why Uber gets complex (once you have many product lines across hundreds of cities, each with their own subtleties and rules/regulations) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25376346
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#13and I thought they were struggling because everyone is staying home due to Covid...
I think the interior of America has given up on distancing.
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#14Talk about setting the wrong price for their stock. Looks like airbnb just handed over boatloads of money to wall street.
This is a market with a lot of froth and if they listed the price at $1 trillion, speculators would have bid it up to $2 trillion just because they want to sell it to a greater fool.
Literally not how markets work, but okay.
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#15For some reason, I just feel this price is too high for them and that it will fall in the coming 2-3 months. Then again, I think about their business model and there’s a lot to like: the don’t own any real estate and if they really wanted to, they could likely let go most of their staff and have a team of maybe 60 - 100 people run the bussiness as it mostly revolves around simply managing the app and keeping it runni…
60-100 staff? Sorry but that's very naïve. Think about how many core services this takes: -finance -payment -HR -management -verification of hosts / properties -scam detection and moderation -legal -dispute arbitration -programming -infrastructure -projects -building management for properties like HQ they own -customer service -etc. They'd be lucky to get away with a couple multiples of your guess. This isn't netflix…
I agreed with everything until Netflix. Netflix is incredibly complex.
But yes, we can all agree that these take a lot of people to run
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#16For some reason, I just feel this price is too high for them and that it will fall in the coming 2-3 months. Then again, I think about their business model and there’s a lot to like: the don’t own any real estate and if they really wanted to, they could likely let go most of their staff and have a team of maybe 60 - 100 people run the bussiness as it mostly revolves around simply managing the app and keeping it runni…
60-100 staff? Sorry but that's very naïve. Think about how many core services this takes: -finance -payment -HR -management -verification of hosts / properties -scam detection and moderation -legal -dispute arbitration -programming -infrastructure -projects -building management for properties like HQ they own -customer service -etc. They'd be lucky to get away with a couple multiples of your guess. This isn't netflix…
Also monitoring laws and taxes in every municipality in the world. Maintaining the app is by far the simplest and easiest part of their business.
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#17For some reason, I just feel this price is too high for them and that it will fall in the coming 2-3 months. Then again, I think about their business model and there’s a lot to like: the don’t own any real estate and if they really wanted to, they could likely let go most of their staff and have a team of maybe 60 - 100 people run the bussiness as it mostly revolves around simply managing the app and keeping it runni…
60-100 staff? Sorry but that's very naïve. Think about how many core services this takes: -finance -payment -HR -management -verification of hosts / properties -scam detection and moderation -legal -dispute arbitration -programming -infrastructure -projects -building management for properties like HQ they own -customer service -etc. They'd be lucky to get away with a couple multiples of your guess. This isn't netflix…
> This isn't netflix, there are far more facets to operations.
With Netflix I think you need to count the content creators, since first party content is the majority these days.
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#18Talk about setting the wrong price for their stock. Looks like airbnb just handed over boatloads of money to wall street.
that isn’t how an IPO works. just because your stock pops doesn’t mean you handed over money to “wall street” if you’ve raised the money you sought at the set IPO price.
the investors who bought the IPO allocation got an immediate 100% return but that is not at the expense of the company.
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#19and I thought they were struggling because everyone is staying home due to Covid...
I imagine cancellations skyrocketed and bookings halted for a few weeks in the spring, but by summer they started to publicly reveal trends were working in their behavior. The number of bookings was a bit depressed, but the number of nights booked had actually increased. In covid times, people seem to prefer staying in a private home for 1-2 weeks over sharing hallways with other guests at hotels for a few nights. With WFH, you can even relocate to an airbnb for a month or more.
Re: Airbnb’s Stunning IPO
#20I hear a lot of talk surrounding their "moat" and many skeptics are questioning whether or not they will be able to maintain their competitive advantage. However, it feels like Airbnb has solved a truly hard problem: how to make people trust your service. People are using this app to go stay in random people's homes. How often do you hear people talk about being murdered in uber? I still hear it. How often do you hea…
> How often do you hear people talk about being murdered in uber? I still hear it. How often do you hear it for Airbnb? I haven't heard someone express that worry yet.
Only in the US: They've solved one of the hardest problems, not being murdered while using their service....