Live data from Hacker News

Games people play with cash flow

commoncog.com

11–20 of 150 posts

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#11
This post is making an error, or at least a poor choice in terminology, when thinking profit only means GAAP accounting or taxable profit.

Malone cut costs by reducing tax liability, getting better prices on programming, and increasing the subscriber base (revenue). What's that word for revenue minus expenses again?

A more honest explanation: Accounting depreciation != the actual change in value of things, and the cash flow statement can let you know when GAAP accounting isn't giving an accurate picture of success.

And about Malone's insight on leverage: Leverage ups your return on investment (when things don't blow up). Paying interest doesn't help you hide money from the tax man any better than setting dollar bills on fire would, but leverage can make big things happen from small amounts of investment.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#12

The bit about TCI (a cable company with a lot of debt in the 70s) is super interesting. I've read before about how companies don't always see debt as a bad thing, and how they can move money around, but it always seems like magic. From the article - "And indeed, Malone’s strategy required TCI to show a loss for pretty much forever; for the next 25 years, it was never in the black". As the article mentions, Amazon fol…

This sort of thing is one reason you might want to tax revenues over profits.

Compare https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_accounting , in which all movies show a formal loss and the concept of "profit" as opposed to revenue exists only to scam parties who agree to be paid out of profits.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#13
I am unconvinced that "first-principles thinking" is the problem here. Surely one can refute the original argument without having to debunk axiomatic logic itself.

For example, one could argue something like this: Even though increased access to other people's money can cause founders to make irresponsible decisions, raising money has other advantages that tend to offset this.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#15

The bit about TCI (a cable company with a lot of debt in the 70s) is super interesting. I've read before about how companies don't always see debt as a bad thing, and how they can move money around, but it always seems like magic. From the article - "And indeed, Malone’s strategy required TCI to show a loss for pretty much forever; for the next 25 years, it was never in the black". As the article mentions, Amazon fol…

This sort of thing is one reason you might want to tax revenues over profits. Compare https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_accounting , in which all movies show a formal loss and the concept of "profit" as opposed to revenue exists only to scam parties who agree to be paid out of profits.

Or you might prefer not to tax corporations at all, only distributions to shareholders. “Profits” or “cash flow” kept in the corporation is reinvested capital. It’s creating jobs and growing businesses, even if it’s kept in an interest bearing bank account.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#16

Just some thoughts. TCI wasn't a startup. So it can't be compared to 2020 startups in this way. Because...you are starting the comparison at a different point in the companies life. This is comparing markets almost 50 years apart. Motives and reasoning just aren't what they used to be. TCI had assets to borrow against. TCI had a monopoly in their areas, and existing customer base. They gamed the tax system for profit…

You just described a startup SAAS.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sort of thing is one reason you might want to tax revenues over profits. Compare https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_accounting , in which all movies show a formal loss and the concept of "profit" as opposed to revenue exists only to scam parties who agree to be paid out of profits.

Or you might prefer not to tax corporations at all, only distributions to shareholders. “Profits” or “cash flow” kept in the corporation is reinvested capital. It’s creating jobs and growing businesses, even if it’s kept in an interest bearing bank account.

So I've always been confused by this argument of just start taxing the money that goes to shareholders because the business will reinvest it and create jobs and what not.

What keeps the company from reinvesting in the form of company luxury cars for the executives, a company home that they let the CEO live in, and executive compensation. Essentially redirecting the money that would've at least gone to index holders to the shareholders that we felt were getting too much of the pie to begin with.

Can someone explain this to me?

EDIT: just to clarify I don't mean they actually sign over the deed to the house to the ceo but rather the company maintains the house as an "executive" hq that the CEO just happens to live in, and the company doesn't give the execs luxury cars they have company cars that the executive just happen to have they keys to and only the execs. Things like that, the company claiming as corporate assets that are really only used by execs. And I am sure there are baskc laws to try and prevent something like this but there are also highly motivated CFOs to find loopholes.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#18
The author creates a false dichotomy when they write that business is either about making profit or managing cash flow.

Making a profit requires cash flow management, but managing cash flow does not require making a profit. This article does talk about managing cash flows in a way that involves never making a profit.

First, and tangentially, it's interesting that real estate developers do this all the time.

Second, it's interesting that this article shows not only why cable companies regional monopolies are extant, but also that their continued existence relies on the preservation of those monopolies.

These and other companies that rely on a strategy of unfettered subscriber growth, in this case leveraged as a marketing tool to creditors to acquire additional debt, is no different than a Ponzi scheme. It makes the fatal assumption that subscriber growth can continue ad infinitum.

But, similar to the amount of free energy in a system, the number of potential subscribers remaining is finite. Eventually, cash flows will fail to meet the projections sold to creditors and established as assumptions in their financial models.

Thus arises a situation that remains tenable only as long as subscribers remain subscribed for as long as is required to service the debt outstanding at the time the growth stopped. Because the debt didn't go anywhere. It hasn't disappeared. Today that debt is sitting on the balance sheet of every one of America's cable providers: the direct result of a flawed line of thinking promoted by the author.

Consider the implications. To remove the regional monopolies of the cable companies is to not only destroy their subscriber base, and thus their cash flows, but also the cash flows promised to their legion creditors. Every one of these creditors now has a vested interest in the preservation of those monopolies, having themselves extended and received credit based on said promises of payment.

I propose that, contrary to the statements of the author, the proof presented by their friend is not "framed incorrectly". Rather, it shows something the author doesn't wish to see.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#19
post #2

This is a pretty good article but missed an opportunity to comment in more detail on the 2020 startup/unicorn ecosystem. "Malone’s entire strategy was built around a single fact: that you have to pay up front for cable systems, but then earn back your money via a stable stream of cash for years and years afterwards. Notice how this extreme demand for capital drove Malone to embrace debt, over other sources of capital…

I forget where I read it, but some article described Uber's business model as "sell a dollar for 80 cents". You get a LOT of customers that way, and report huge growth, which brings in investors, and everything is great - until the pyramid scheme collapses.

Re: Games people play with cash flow

#20
Great Article. A lot of people don't understand how important cash flow is. Even Elon pointed out that having factories close to customer is very important for a fast growing company like TSLA because if you grow too fast you'll be putting so many cars on boats before they are paid for that you will have no cash.

I disagree with the framing of both articles somewhat. The question should be "What is limiting your growth?" Is raising money going to distract you from making a product customers need and love? Then skip it. If being too small for enterprises to take you seriously is a blocker then you'll need to raise money.

Post reply on HN