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Wish S-1

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Re: Wish S-1

#11

Post by soniman »

soniman wrote: post #5

"Our growth has been highly capital efficient. We have been able to achieve this massive growth and scale by having net cumulative cash flow from operations of $16 million from January 1, 2017 to September 30, 2020, aided by our positive cash float, where we receive an upfront payment from a user, and remit payment to a merchant a number of weeks later. In 2019, we generated a net loss of $129 million and Adjusted EB…

Assuming run rate revenues of around $2.5B, I assume this will be valued around 15x revenues, so $37.5 billion. Just a wild guess.

Re: Wish S-1

#12

Post by xienze »

haunter wrote: post #9
luxurytent wrote: post #7

Huh, I've never heard of this but went to the home page and it sells .. junk? Some of the products remind me of those "THIS ONE WEIRD TRICK" ads

It's not selling goods for SV people Basically an Aliexpress clone with cheap chinese stuff

I think it's slightly different from that. My understanding is that a lot of stuff on there is marked as legitimate brand name goods that aren't what they purport to be at all. The example that stuck out to me are the countless YouTube videos where someone buys what is claimed to be a, e.g. GTX 1080 for $50 that's really some ancient card with the BIOS flashed to _report_ that it's a 1080. Stuff like that seems to be the MO of wish.com.

Re: Wish S-1

#13

Post by chrisseaton »

luxurytent wrote: post #7

Huh, I've never heard of this but went to the home page and it sells .. junk? Some of the products remind me of those "THIS ONE WEIRD TRICK" ads

Yes they sell very low-end stuff. That’s their market.

Re: Wish S-1

#14

Post by da_big_ghey »

d3nj4l wrote: post #2

As expected, the threat of reputational damage from counterfeit goods features pretty heavily in the IPO. Unfortunately, that damage has already been done. At the moment, 8 of the top 10 results for "wish.com" on YouTube are people exposing scams. Not really a good look for the company.

Yeah, when I think of wish.com, I usually think of "fuel filters" or auto switches. Not exactly a reputation for quality.

Re: Wish S-1

#15

Post by adventured »

soniman wrote: post #11
soniman wrote: post #5

"Our growth has been highly capital efficient. We have been able to achieve this massive growth and scale by having net cumulative cash flow from operations of $16 million from January 1, 2017 to September 30, 2020, aided by our positive cash float, where we receive an upfront payment from a user, and remit payment to a merchant a number of weeks later. In 2019, we generated a net loss of $129 million and Adjusted EB…

Assuming run rate revenues of around $2.5B, I assume this will be valued around 15x revenues, so $37.5 billion. Just a wild guess.

Overstock is going for ~1.4 times sales (and that's 3x inflated versus May due to OSTK recently joining the bubble party).

If by some miracle Wish gets 15x, they'll be a spectacular short opportunity.

Re: Wish S-1

#16

Post by jonplackett »

Is it just me or are there multiple S-1's on here almost every day at the moment?

Is there glut of them or are they just overly represented on HN at the moment?

Re: Wish S-1

#17

Post by jackfrodo »

The tolerance of counterfeits is really such a bummer. And it's not just Wish. Amazon has their fair share of counterfeits as well. These "Airpods"[0] are cheap knockoffs, but the images say that they're Airpod Pros. This listing is on the first page of results when you search for Airpods on Amazon.

[0]https://www.amazon.com/Wireless-Headphones-Bluetooth-Earbuds...

Re: Wish S-1

#18

Post by soniman »

adventured wrote: post #15
soniman wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming run rate revenues of around $2.5B, I assume this will be valued around 15x revenues, so $37.5 billion. Just a wild guess.

Overstock is going for ~1.4 times sales (and that's 3x inflated versus May due to OSTK recently joining the bubble party). If by some miracle Wish gets 15x, they'll be a spectacular short opportunity.

Wish was valued at $11 billion in the last VC round in 2019. Since then Shopify is up 200% so if Wish is being valued off Shopify then $37.5 billion isn't far off. Shop's price to sales is 50x so 15x isn't outrageous for Wish. Shop is growing faster but Wish's economics are better.

Re: Wish S-1

#19

Post by ethbr0 »

jackfrodo wrote: post #17

The tolerance of counterfeits is really such a bummer. And it's not just Wish. Amazon has their fair share of counterfeits as well. These "Airpods"[0] are cheap knockoffs, but the images say that they're Airpod Pros. This listing is on the first page of results when you search for Airpods on Amazon. [0] https://www.amazon.com/Wireless-Headphones-Bluetooth-Earbuds...

> (from listing) https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/71RExoJxCeL...

I'm more confused than anything. Is the intent to suggest that AirPod Pros are perfect to wear on a date or at the club?

Re: Wish S-1

#20

Post by julianlam »

Don't exactly know why one would invest in what is essentially a digital flea market. Spend your money at the flea market, don't invest in one.

All stories I've heard about Wish involve products arriving past the expected date, and a refund being issued.

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