11–20 of 114 posts
And don't forget the long-term health impacts for those that survive. This will have implications for years to come.
And don't forget the long-term health impacts for those that survive. This will have implications for years to come.
Yes, the long-haulers and COVID-19 heart damage are particularly concerning. Also there is some evidence suggesting that a large fraction hospitalized for COVID-19 end up with mental health issues even if they did not have them before. Some of that might be down to the traumatic experience but there's some reason to think COVID-19 infections cause neurological impacts.
This really depends on how far back you look. I was looking at the data for Sweden the other day. If you look at the last 20 years in terms of overall mortality, 2020 is right around the middle: https://mobile.twitter.com/TLennhamn/status/1295269941109764... It's certainly more than last year, or the year before that, but it's not an outlier for the last two decades.
Yes, the world has become a safer place to live in over the years.
Given the downward trend in age adjusted deaths per million over time, it makes a lot of sense to compare only the most recent years to 2020.
See here to compare monthly mortality rates for every country in 2020 to the the prior 5 year period: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
This really depends on how far back you look. I was looking at the data for Sweden the other day. If you look at the last 20 years in terms of overall mortality, 2020 is right around the middle: https://mobile.twitter.com/TLennhamn/status/1295269941109764... It's certainly more than last year, or the year before that, but it's not an outlier for the last two decades.
If you zoom out 200 years, this year's mortality looks awesome! Yes, the world has become a safer place to live in over the years. Given the downward trend in age adjusted deaths per million over time, it makes a lot of sense to compare only the most recent years to 2020. See here to compare monthly mortality rates for every country in 2020 to the the prior 5 year period: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-c…
If the data only looks bad when you look at 5 year window, and not 20 year window, that seems like a pretty fragile argument.
The part I found interesting was the number of death from flu and pneumonia: 5 year average: 28,140 deaths 2020 so far: 18,325 deaths (does not include November and December!) COVID 2020: 53,675 deaths So while it does seem to be killing some people who would've died from the flu/pneumonia anyway, it's still nearly double the 5 year average which would make it one hell of a bad flu strain.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you zoom out 200 years, this year's mortality looks awesome! Yes, the world has become a safer place to live in over the years. Given the downward trend in age adjusted deaths per million over time, it makes a lot of sense to compare only the most recent years to 2020. See here to compare monthly mortality rates for every country in 2020 to the the prior 5 year period: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-c…
I think looking at the last 20 years is pretty reasonable. All the years are within my lifetime. I agree we should not zoom out for the last 200 years. If the data only looks bad when you look at 5 year window, and not 20 year window, that seems like a pretty fragile argument.
I'm not sure, with the speed of technological improvements in the last decade, that 20 years is appropriate.
This really depends on how far back you look. I was looking at the data for Sweden the other day. If you look at the last 20 years in terms of overall mortality, 2020 is right around the middle: https://mobile.twitter.com/TLennhamn/status/1295269941109764... It's certainly more than last year, or the year before that, but it's not an outlier for the last two decades.
[Edit]
And what is "Age Adjusted + Population Adjusted Deaths"? (Yes, I get "population adjusted".)
[As of 2019, Sweden's population has increased 16% since 2000, 13% in the 0-17 yrs and 35% in 65+ yrs groups. The population of "Foreign Born" is up 97% (!) vs 11% growth in Swedish citizens. In that time, life expectancy has gone from 77.4 to 81.3 for men, 82.0 to 84.7 for women. "Crude death rate" has gone from 10.5 to 8.6 (per 1000). Source: https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subje... As a bottom line, I'd suggest Sweden's demographics changes in the last 20 years have been crazy pants.]
And don't forget the long-term health impacts for those that survive. This will have implications for years to come.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think looking at the last 20 years is pretty reasonable. All the years are within my lifetime. I agree we should not zoom out for the last 200 years. If the data only looks bad when you look at 5 year window, and not 20 year window, that seems like a pretty fragile argument.
What problems have had advancements in treatment in the last 20 years? HIV/AIDS, cancer, diabetes. Those are just three things off the top of my head that I know have improved, even without data to support me. I'm not sure, with the speed of technological improvements in the last decade, that 20 years is appropriate.
Aside from 2018, this year does not even look like much of an outlier: https://mobile.twitter.com/TLennhamn/status/1295269505984344... . 2012 seems to have been deadlier, for Sweden, than 2020, which was 8 years ago.