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Affirm Public S-1 Filing

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Re: Affirm Public S-1 Filing

#11
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does Affirm carry the credit risk on its books?

Haven’t read the prospectus but I know they sell loans to investors and they are fairly highly rated from a credit perspective. I’m sure they have some debt on their books too though.

some debt, but that is mostly for experimentation purposes. Most everything goes into different debt facilities or are securitized and sold

Re: Affirm Public S-1 Filing

#13
post #11
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haven’t read the prospectus but I know they sell loans to investors and they are fairly highly rated from a credit perspective. I’m sure they have some debt on their books too though.

some debt, but that is mostly for experimentation purposes. Most everything goes into different debt facilities or are securitized and sold

sounds about right.

Re: Affirm Public S-1 Filing

#14
post #5

The floodgates in 2020 have opened with IPOs of alot of these unicorns, Palantir, doordash, airbnb, affirm, jfrog, snowflake, asana. I wonder why the sudden timeframe to go public. My guess is they want to ride the wave of stimulus money that has been going on during the spring/summer and the 2nd round which has yet to happen.

I mean look at the market - we’re at all time highs. It’s more the trillions the Fed pumped into the markets than stimulus.

yeah its probably this, market caps on some of these money losers is stratospheric. I think alot of people forgot the lessons of 2000. Take Palantir, a company that is 11 years old and for the past 3 years has lost 600M a year. What monopoly will this company carve out for itself to achieve this lofty valuation?

Or lets look at doordash [1] despite the pandemic and most of its workers not being employees(low paid gig workers) it is still losing money at an astounding rate: $533M last year and with a pandemic bump of only a 149M loss this year so far(it expects orders to slow alot after the pandemic).

I feel like I am Michael Burry in the big short playing my drums pointing out the obviousness of the huge crash that is coming with alot of these companies. What is scary is alot of americans and foreigners for that matter have their retirement savings(401k) tied up into these mini-titanics. When the fed's tap gets turned off, expect a reckoning.

[1] - https://beta.trimread.com/articles/51214

Re: Affirm Public S-1 Filing

#15

The floodgates in 2020 have opened with IPOs of alot of these unicorns, Palantir, doordash, airbnb, affirm, jfrog, snowflake, asana. I wonder why the sudden timeframe to go public. My guess is they want to ride the wave of stimulus money that has been going on during the spring/summer and the 2nd round which has yet to happen.

There is a bigger macro trend here - public investors are clamoring to get in early on the next $ZM, $AMZN, $GOOGL, etc. even if they place bets on 5 of these companies and 1 pans out, it'll far exceed the SP500.

Re: Affirm Public S-1 Filing

#17

FY Ended June 30, in millions | 2019 | 2020 ------------|--------|-------- net revenue | $264 | $509 op ex | $391 | $617 net loss | $(120) | $(113) loss ex SBC | $(79) | $(83) volume | $2,620 | $4,637 customers | 2.05 | 3.62

Am I right in reading 30% of their rev is coming from Peloton? (Control-F “Peloton”)

“Our top merchant partner, Peloton, represented approximately 28% of our total revenue for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2020 and 30% of our total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2020. Our top ten merchants in the aggregate represented approximately 35% of our total revenue for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2020 and approximately 37% of our total revenue for the three months ended September 30, 2020.”

“For example, the significance of Peloton in our portfolio has increased as a result of consumer spending trends on home fitness equipment, and there can be no assurance that such trends will continue or that the levels of total revenue and merchant network revenue that we generate from Peloton will continue. The loss of Peloton as a merchant partner, or the loss of any other significant merchant relationships, would materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition, and future prospects. In addition, an anticipated material modification in the merchant agreement with a significant merchant partner could affect the results of our operations, financial condition, and future prospects.”

Re: Affirm Public S-1 Filing

#18
post #12

I will buy at IPO. Fantastic company.

Instead of relying on your credit card, you use the vendor (or someone else) credit, to pay over time. Looks like in some cases, they integrated in the vendor website, so when paying you can directly select Affirm. I did the test with Dyson, it redirected me to the Dyson website, and Dyson does already offers payment installments at 0% APR (12 months). Looks like Affirm does the math for you, if there is an APR, so you know the true cost. And it keeps all your debt nicely listed in the mobile app. So, you know what you owe every month. Hopefully Affirm helps you not overstretch... This could help people who do not fully grasp the true cost of those credits, and hopefully help them manage their debt.

Re: Affirm Public S-1 Filing

#19

The floodgates in 2020 have opened with IPOs of alot of these unicorns, Palantir, doordash, airbnb, affirm, jfrog, snowflake, asana. I wonder why the sudden timeframe to go public. My guess is they want to ride the wave of stimulus money that has been going on during the spring/summer and the 2nd round which has yet to happen.

It's not just stimulus money, but a lot of people save money by not traveling/driving/eating out/going to events.

Re: Affirm Public S-1 Filing

#20

The floodgates in 2020 have opened with IPOs of alot of these unicorns, Palantir, doordash, airbnb, affirm, jfrog, snowflake, asana. I wonder why the sudden timeframe to go public. My guess is they want to ride the wave of stimulus money that has been going on during the spring/summer and the 2nd round which has yet to happen.

I have a friend who works for the big four in M&A. He said there's a rush of deals with explicit EOY deadlines because of the tax environment uncertainty. I can't imagine this doesn't play a major role in all of the IPOs happening before EOY as well.
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