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Bitcoin hits US$ 4, after being mentioned on CNN yesterday

mtgox.com

11–20 of 94 posts

Re: Bitcoin hits US$ 4, after being mentioned on CNN yesterday

#11
post #8
post #3

This is either a bubble or probably the most awesome J-curve of the decade. Either way, I am waiting to see what happens. I have more than enough bitcoin for a black swan hedge. I am also going to be with bitcoin to the bitter end or the ultimate victory over state-controlled monetary system.

"This is either a bubble or probably the most awesome J-curve of the decade." The average American isn't smart enough to understand what bitcoin is, how it works, how to buy them, how to spend them, etc. In five years bitcoin is going to be just another failed standard like i-names or GPG, something that doesn't ever get used except for in very niche enterprise usecases or when nerds are trying to impress other nerds…

The average person isn't smart enough to understand what a stock market is, how it works and how to buy/sell stocks, either. That doesn't mean they're not used.

Re: Bitcoin hits US$ 4, after being mentioned on CNN yesterday

#12
post #5

So say I'd have a blog with a huge reach. I hear about bitcoins. I buy a million for $4 each. I blog about it. Next day it's at $8. I'd sell the bitcoins, maybe 10000 a day to not let the market crash, and in 3.5 months I've got $4 million more than I used to.

> Dark pools allow you to trade large quantities without moving the market.

Re: Bitcoin hits US$ 4, after being mentioned on CNN yesterday

#13
post #7
post #5

So say I'd have a blog with a huge reach. I hear about bitcoins. I buy a million for $4 each. I blog about it. Next day it's at $8. I'd sell the bitcoins, maybe 10000 a day to not let the market crash, and in 3.5 months I've got $4 million more than I used to.

It's a still small, unregulated market, so yeah, you could probably do that.

Unfortunately I neither have a blog with big reach nor $4 million. :)

Re: Bitcoin hits US$ 4, after being mentioned on CNN yesterday

#14
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"This is either a bubble or probably the most awesome J-curve of the decade." The average American isn't smart enough to understand what bitcoin is, how it works, how to buy them, how to spend them, etc. In five years bitcoin is going to be just another failed standard like i-names or GPG, something that doesn't ever get used except for in very niche enterprise usecases or when nerds are trying to impress other nerds…

The average person isn't smart enough to understand what a stock market is, how it works and how to buy/sell stocks, either. That doesn't mean they're not used.

The reason they are used is that there is an entire abstraction layer around it, all you have to do is give your money to the guy whose face is on the billboard. As a crypto currency, bitcoin is fundamentally incompatible with this model.

Re: Bitcoin hits US$ 4, after being mentioned on CNN yesterday

#15
post #8
post #3

This is either a bubble or probably the most awesome J-curve of the decade. Either way, I am waiting to see what happens. I have more than enough bitcoin for a black swan hedge. I am also going to be with bitcoin to the bitter end or the ultimate victory over state-controlled monetary system.

"This is either a bubble or probably the most awesome J-curve of the decade." The average American isn't smart enough to understand what bitcoin is, how it works, how to buy them, how to spend them, etc. In five years bitcoin is going to be just another failed standard like i-names or GPG, something that doesn't ever get used except for in very niche enterprise usecases or when nerds are trying to impress other nerds…

Why would bitcoin stays hard to use and hard to learn?

Re: Bitcoin hits US$ 4, after being mentioned on CNN yesterday

#16
post #10

I've been watching the price of BTC rise pretty steadily in the last few days but I can't bring myself to believe that this price range is in any way sustainable. $4 per bitcoin? Not even the EUR and GBP have ever reached that in my recollection. I guess it if does stay like this mining is going to become pretty lucrative and certainly financially worth it.

$4 per bitcoin? Not even the EUR and GBP have ever reached that in my recollection. Keep in mind that the exchange rate is a function of several inputs, one of which is the rather arbitrary fact of how much total currency is in circulation. There are many fewer BTC than USD, EUR, GBP, etc. (about one million times fewer, to be precise). And conversely, there are many more JPY in circulation, which is part of the reas…

Given the current valuation though of $3.5 and the fact that there are approximately 6M bitcoin in circulation, that gives quite a large valuation on what seems to be a very limited market at the moment. You are right though, my initial simple comparison of numbers leads only to inaccuracies

Re: Bitcoin hits US$ 4, after being mentioned on CNN yesterday

#17

On a volume of 53,896 btc since midnight. For some perspective.

Here's a quick realtime view of the markets Mt. Gox included.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

There's pretty decent volume and the bid/ask spread is gradually tightening. Just for some perspctive, the US Dollar index futures trade about 15,000 contracts a day, (granted they are much easier to convert).

I'll keep an eye on this...

Re: Bitcoin hits US$ 4, after being mentioned on CNN yesterday

#18
post #10

I've been watching the price of BTC rise pretty steadily in the last few days but I can't bring myself to believe that this price range is in any way sustainable. $4 per bitcoin? Not even the EUR and GBP have ever reached that in my recollection. I guess it if does stay like this mining is going to become pretty lucrative and certainly financially worth it.

$4 per bitcoin? Not even the EUR and GBP have ever reached that in my recollection. Keep in mind that the exchange rate is a function of several inputs, one of which is the rather arbitrary fact of how much total currency is in circulation. There are many fewer BTC than USD, EUR, GBP, etc. (about one million times fewer, to be precise). And conversely, there are many more JPY in circulation, which is part of the reas…

You seem to be knowledgeable in this field. I have no idea about it and would like to get a small insight. Can you recommend a tutorial (Preferably less than 40 pages) that explains some of the main concepts?

Re: Bitcoin hits US$ 4, after being mentioned on CNN yesterday

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average person isn't smart enough to understand what a stock market is, how it works and how to buy/sell stocks, either. That doesn't mean they're not used.

The reason they are used is that there is an entire abstraction layer around it, all you have to do is give your money to the guy whose face is on the billboard. As a crypto currency, bitcoin is fundamentally incompatible with this model.

There's nothing to prevent that level of abstraction being built around bitcoin. The average credit card user doesn't understand what's going on in the background, just that money from their bill is transferred to the merchant.

Re: Bitcoin hits US$ 4, after being mentioned on CNN yesterday

#20
Four days ago, Bitcoin was under $2 USD. Now it's over $4 USD (depending on when you refresh the page). There are 6 million bitcoins in existence, and trade volume is only about 54,000 according to the biggest exchange. There aren't enough bids/asks to soak up more than about $100 USD without throwing the exchange rate one direction or the other.

For example, right now (as I write this) exchanging $1000 USD for some Bitcoins is all it takes to push the exchange rate up $0.10 from $3.77 to $3.87.

What a lot of Bitcoin newcomers don't realize is that Bitcoin depends on 'mining' to generate new bitcoins. Computers run cryptographic hashes to find the 'winning' has which is less than the current difficulty target number. The computer that finds this hash is awarded 50 BTC. The difficulty target is automatically adjusted upward to keep new bitcoin generation at a constant pace.

Some quick research shows a handful of big players in the mining market who have invested heavily in high-end GPUs for dedicated bitcoin mining, some with over 50 GPUs running 24/7 for months now. These guys are bound to have huge quantities of bitcoin they are eager to unload when the price is right. Meanwhile, news coverage is driving exploding popularity, which appears to be pulling the exchange rate sky high. On paper, many of these guys have become overnight millionaires just by running a bunch of computers 24/7.

Of course, as these players cash out the exchange rate will fall. These guys are too smart to sell all at once and flood the market, but with volatility like this I'm willing to bet a lot are eager to pull their bitcoin out of the game before the bubble pops.

Meanwhile, hardware enthusiasts all over the internet are rushing to buy GPUs to dedicate to mining. They don't seem to realize that the bitcoin system automatically adjusts to keep the bitcoin generation rate constant at 50 BTC per 10 minutes. As the mining market becomes flooded with new 'miners' the difficulty will climb rapidly, until it becomes unprofitable to run a GPU if you have to pay for electricity.

Finally, bitcoin is highly illiquid. My research was brief, but I couldn't find an easy way to exchange small amounts of BTC for USD that didn't look terribly sketchy or involve a lot of fees. Stores aren't eager to accept bitcoin because the exchange rate at the moment can easily swing 10% between when the user presses 'check out' and the transaction is processed.

The bitcoin system is a very interesting concept, and it was clearly implemented by some very intelligent people. But as it currently stands it's just a playground for speculators and market manipulators. Expect some carnage in the coming months.

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