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Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

washingtonpost.com

11–20 of 25 posts

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#11
post #2

Not quite so difficult if you live on an island.

Being remote certainly helped Australia, but I think this "island" line is a massive cop-out.

Mainland USA only has land borders with Canada and Mexico, right? Do you believe that if those borders were impermeable that they'd have COVID beaten? And the only reason the outbreak there is so large is due to cases sneaking in from Mexico and Canada every day? In reality, the vast vast majority of USA's COVID cases came from the exact same place as the majority of Australia's COVID cases - people flying in, and community transmission.

Yes, Australia has had a few advantages when fighting COVID. But hand-waving Australia's success away as "it's an island!" just serves to ignore the lessons that could be learned from Australia's response.

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#12
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The efficacy of herd immunity strategy for combating Covid has been thoroughly debunked.

> The efficacy of herd immunity strategy for combating Covid has been thoroughly debunked.

No, that's actually what the US is doing. Besides that, there' hasn't been any science evident in either the WHO or CDC advice.

Wishing something was true doesn't make it reality.

Can you construct a logical argument?

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#13
post #2

Not quite so difficult if you live on an island.

An island that's still roughly the size of the US.

An island of people who for the overwhelming majority stayed inside, social distanced and had a positive attitude to removing the virus. But we weren't without our mistakes, Victoria allowing a black lives matter rally really shot themselves in the foot with eradicating the virus. They would've been in a much better state earlier had they not had that rally, given there was a large number of communication transmission following.

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#14
post #2

Not quite so difficult if you live on an island.

I feel like all of the people who just say "they're an island" are kind of diminishing the accomplishment, so I'd just like to point out a few things:

One, we had 9mil visitors in 2018, so it's not an island nobody ever visited in the here-be-dragons section of the map.

Two, we still have 3K people flying into Sydney per week, so it's not a completely isolated place. We're even allowing visitors from NZ without requiring quarantine.

Three, we have higher urbanization than the US or UK, so most of the population is living in a few cities. We're not all spread out 5 miles away from each other. So it's a comparable problem to that faced by other countries in that regard.

Four, even as an island, Covid still got here. So it could still spread once here. but we never lost control of the spread(Semantics, I know, you could argue that Melbourne lost control and that's why there was a lockdown). That's due to the steps taken to prevent the spread, but this _never really gets discussed_.

Five, and this is the important thing I think everybody overlooks, NSW has had cases in the community, but we've NOT had exponential growth and a lockdown. We're handling the problem in NSW without lockdowns, which is what a lot of anti-lockdown protesters think should be done. But every time Australia is mentioned, nobody discusses how this is accomplished, how it could be better, what others could learn from it. No, it's only ever "Hurr, Durr, They're an Island".

So, to actually discuss how Australia does it...

I personally think that the contact tracing in NSW is second to none. They take a lot of steps to be able to contact everyone who comes in contact with a positive case as quickly as possible, and this means that each positive can only really infect one or two people before they're isolating. A lot of people are told to isolate because they came in contact, then they never pass on the covid.

They also test waste water so they know if there's undetected covid in a region, like Bathurst, then ask people in that region to get tested. It's better than "wait until cases come forward".

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#15
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The efficacy of herd immunity strategy for combating Covid has been thoroughly debunked.

How so?

Every pandemic in history was brought under control using herd immunity, including prior outbreaks of coronavirus.

The only exception I know of is the eradication of smallpox, but that is a very different disease.

However, the impact it had on the Native American population when the (then benefiting from herd immunity) Europeans brought it to the Americas is a stark example of how well herd immunity works.

Even the best vaccines provide less long term immunity than actually catching the disease.

Therefore, by arguing that herd immunity cannot bring coronavirus under control, you are also arguing there will never be an effective vaccine.

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#17
post #2

Not quite so difficult if you live on an island.

It is also vastly more urbanised than the US, most of Australia lives in a few areas that are pretty densely populated. We aren't all living in tiny communities in the middle of nowhere, Australia's population is hugely coastal.

It is an island is a silly response, we didn't shut borders before COVID got in so it isn't like us being an island is hugely impactful. Australia has done a really good job of handling community spread within Australia.

What proportion of the COVID cases around the world do you think are happening because of people from the outside a country visiting vs community spread to think the island thing is especially relevant?

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#18
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In summer. And have $300000000000 to gamble away. Better hope the virus doesn’t slip back in or they’re back to square one, but broke.

It was winter down here in the southern hemisphere...

Nice 30 degrees C weather you’re having in the winter. Must be global warming.

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was winter down here in the southern hemisphere...

Nice 30 degrees C weather you’re having in the winter. Must be global warming.

The lockdown is over now. It started in the winter and that is when the majority of reduction from the peak occurred. The temperature did not hit 30 degrees at any point before we had a day with zero cases.

Re: Australia has almost eliminated the coronavirus – by putting faith in science

#20
I just want to add a top level comment that isn't a dumpster fire threaded by other dumpster fires.

The science of lockdowns work - their efficacy is calculated, executed and measured.

From the other thread I just want to follow up on a few things...

Yes, Australia is an island. But it's also roughly the size of the US - and has a large number of flights in and out. It's also closer to China and had early transmission. So it's an island, by the same definition that so is the United Kingdom and the United States rather than a glib and frankly stupid comment.

No, herd mentality isn't the solution to a coronavirus - if you think it is, the common cold would like a word with you.

Yes, the states of Australia typically did the right thing at the micro level -- even when the macro federal response was a bit of a mess. There was a lot less politicking for it due to the fact that, oh well -- it's a global pandemic that's killing people.

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