There’s a row in PA listing Biden with 104.3% of the vote in a block with 1285 votes (the differential increased by more than the total number of votes). Data error?
Election Battleground State Changes
11–20 of 93 posts
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#12Nice
Who's up for adding simple graphs to this?
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#13There’s a row in PA listing Biden with 104.3% of the vote in a block with 1285 votes (the differential increased by more than the total number of votes). Data error?
I also see 3 blocks in PA of 25k+ votes with 90%+ Biden (one is 97%) - can someone better at statistics tell me how likely that is due to chance given the other values (assuming the data is reporting accurately)?
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#14There’s a row in PA listing Biden with 104.3% of the vote in a block with 1285 votes (the differential increased by more than the total number of votes). Data error?
I also see 3 blocks in PA of 25k+ votes with 90%+ Biden (one is 97%) - can someone better at statistics tell me how likely that is due to chance given the other values (assuming the data is reporting accurately)?
According to noted election expert Ioseb Jughashvili, such scenarios are extremely likely under certain sets of circumstances. He's said it's nothing to worry about.
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#15Why do the estimated vote counts keep going up? Why has this process dragged on for days. Where do they keep losing ballots? Why isn't there a deadline? Why are only these states still counting?
Great resource BTW!
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#16Well done. NC looks like something might be wonky; it's reporting all the blocks as 50.0% Trump and 50.0% Biden. Which is possible I guess, but it seems more likely that there's a bug somewhere.
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#17I think most of us have been mentally doing these calculations (inaccurately!) in our heads these past two days. But this is so awesome! Also, according to the trends here: Alaska - Trump (3 votes) Arizona - Trump (11 votes) Georgia - Biden (16 votes) North Carolina - Trump (15 votes) Nevada - Biden (6 votes) Pennsylvania - Biden (20 votes) Winner would be Biden.
Quick calculation puts the final score at 295/243 for Biden.
To put that into perspective, less convincing than Trump's win in 2016, slightly more convincing than George W. Bush's re-election.
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#18Why do the estimated vote counts keep going up? Why has this process dragged on for days . Where do they keep losing ballots? Why isn't there a deadline? Why are only these states still counting? Great resource BTW!
Votes can arrive by mail later without being opened. Also counties may misreport how many ballots they originally had.
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#19Why do the estimated vote counts keep going up? Why has this process dragged on for days . Where do they keep losing ballots? Why isn't there a deadline? Why are only these states still counting? Great resource BTW!
> Why isn't there a deadline?
there's a balance to be struck between counting every last mail-in ballot and concluding the election in a reasonable amount of time. it's probably worth erring in favor of counting everyone's constitutionally guaranteed right to vote, even if it means a week or two of nail biting over the outcome.
Re: Election Battleground State Changes
#20Why do the estimated vote counts keep going up? Why has this process dragged on for days . Where do they keep losing ballots? Why isn't there a deadline? Why are only these states still counting? Great resource BTW!
Votes can arrive by mail later without being opened. Also counties may misreport how many ballots they originally had.
Why do the misreport them? Why don't we know?
And I also don't really understand how mail can arrive later. In my state of Oregon which has mail-in only voting, ballots must arrive by 8PM on election day. That's it. Why do other states allow it to go past that? This is crazy. It's election day, not week.