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Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

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11–20 of 79 posts

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#11
post #8

I find it interesting that the paper focusses on Central Bank Digital Currencies and Global Stablecoins, but pretends not to see/prefers not to deal with the elephant in the room - Bitcoin. If anything is a candidate for a potential Reserve Currency, BTC is it, imho. Deep in the footnotes comes the contorted logic," According to the IMF Treatment of Crypto Assets in Macroeconomic Statistics, crypto assets such as Bit…

> Lack of control by recognised "authorities"

Ding, ding, ding!

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#12
post #4

We already have a digital Euro/Dollar/Yen, just look at the banking app on your phone or the transactions you do with a bank or credit card. But I'm very scared to see what those digital wallets for CBDC will turn into. If central banks get control over money flows they can do horrible stuff: * set a maximum limit on the amount of money you are allowed to have/save in your CBDC wallet. * give you an x amount of money…

Attach those digital wallets to biometrics and just like that, we have the nightmare to which you are alluding. Going against the zeigeist again but if something gets pushed onto us for something silly like "pandemic preparedness" or "contact & trace" like 9/11 has brought onto us...that offers identity management that can be expanded into a system like this... If that happens, can we please stop pretending like some…

[deleted]

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#13
post #10
post #8

I find it interesting that the paper focusses on Central Bank Digital Currencies and Global Stablecoins, but pretends not to see/prefers not to deal with the elephant in the room - Bitcoin. If anything is a candidate for a potential Reserve Currency, BTC is it, imho. Deep in the footnotes comes the contorted logic," According to the IMF Treatment of Crypto Assets in Macroeconomic Statistics, crypto assets such as Bit…

What do you mean by "Bitcoin showing no greater volatility than any of the world's fiat currencies"? I pulled up BTC/USD and EUR/USD https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=USD&view=2Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=2Y In the last 1 year, I see BTC low of 5000 and high of 12000, a 40% difference. And EUR at 1.06 to 1.20, about 12% difference. The year before was worse for BTC and bette…

Not that bitcoin is not volatile (it sure as hell is), but you're picking the most stable currencies in the world and comparing them to a crypto asset that is younger than a kindergarden class. Try building the same graphs for 3rd or even 2nd world currencies and observe that they might have even worse volatility. I live in a country whose currencies devaluated in order of trillion times in 20th century if you count multiple "monetary reforms" and "denominations".

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#14

We already have a digital Euro/Dollar/Yen, just look at the banking app on your phone or the transactions you do with a bank or credit card. But I'm very scared to see what those digital wallets for CBDC will turn into. If central banks get control over money flows they can do horrible stuff: * set a maximum limit on the amount of money you are allowed to have/save in your CBDC wallet. * give you an x amount of money…

I would argue that all of that is already more or less the case with the central banking system as we have it now: negative interest rates, money only insured up to 100k per person in EU bank accounts, massive decrease in buying power (look at the price of real estate/gold/crypto expressed in EUR/USD over the past 10 years), Dutch citizens pay "capital tax" over any capital over some 30k EUR (literally: spend it or w…

to be fair, crypto purchases have a high incidence of chargeback fraud. this is expensive for banks.

edit: i chuckled at the little britain reference :)

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#15

We already have a digital Euro/Dollar/Yen, just look at the banking app on your phone or the transactions you do with a bank or credit card. But I'm very scared to see what those digital wallets for CBDC will turn into. If central banks get control over money flows they can do horrible stuff: * set a maximum limit on the amount of money you are allowed to have/save in your CBDC wallet. * give you an x amount of money…

All of these could be circumvented though. For instance, you are given X and have to spend it by the end of the month. So you sell your X to someone who does want to spend money and they give you something in return (e.g. cryptocurrency) that you can save. Or you just buy some object such as gold jewellery that has a measurable value.

This kind of direct interference with money never works. People just find ways around it, and if they can't, then the money loses its value.

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#16
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you mean by "Bitcoin showing no greater volatility than any of the world's fiat currencies"? I pulled up BTC/USD and EUR/USD https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=USD&view=2Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=2Y In the last 1 year, I see BTC low of 5000 and high of 12000, a 40% difference. And EUR at 1.06 to 1.20, about 12% difference. The year before was worse for BTC and bette…

Not that bitcoin is not volatile (it sure as hell is), but you're picking the most stable currencies in the world and comparing them to a crypto asset that is younger than a kindergarden class. Try building the same graphs for 3rd or even 2nd world currencies and observe that they might have even worse volatility. I live in a country whose currencies devaluated in order of trillion times in 20th century if you count…

Sure, but nobody is pretending that the likes of the Venezuelan Bolivar show no more volatility than any of the world's [other] fiat currencies as they breathlessly hype its potential as a global reserve currency.

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#17
The traditional capitalist economy with gold and then dollar bills was adequate for a long time. Still ground to halt during great depression.

I argue that it is on it's limits now. Long-term prosperity now depends on central banks making right decisions every time there is a hiccup. This should not be like that.

It should be more automatic. Ubi or not, relief funds should be in place when they are truly needed.

Short-term projects should be funded without borrowing excess funds from future generations.

Ultra long term projects should be possible without some crazy political effort.

Central banks can do all of above, if they have better visibility and, yes, control of how money moves, what ownership structure is

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#18

We already have a digital Euro/Dollar/Yen, just look at the banking app on your phone or the transactions you do with a bank or credit card. But I'm very scared to see what those digital wallets for CBDC will turn into. If central banks get control over money flows they can do horrible stuff: * set a maximum limit on the amount of money you are allowed to have/save in your CBDC wallet. * give you an x amount of money…

I would argue that all of that is already more or less the case with the central banking system as we have it now: negative interest rates, money only insured up to 100k per person in EU bank accounts, massive decrease in buying power (look at the price of real estate/gold/crypto expressed in EUR/USD over the past 10 years), Dutch citizens pay "capital tax" over any capital over some 30k EUR (literally: spend it or w…

The difference, is that the CBDC will be even more centralized. To control currency flows requires the participation of many separate entities. With this new 'digital money' it requires only the participation of those who control the blockchain. ie political policy can be achieved programmatically, by having complete control over all currency transactions in a nation. This is very different from the status quo. It should be noted that cash will soon be eliminated.

The potential for abuse here is enormous. If you think shadow banning is problematic from a free speech perspective. Imagine being silently shadow banned from your local grocery store. Imagine not being able to donate to a particular cause/political party. Imagine not being able to give a friend in need financial support because their social score is too low.

People have no actual freedom without economic freedom, and this system will create a sword of Damocles that will hang over each and every person.

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not that bitcoin is not volatile (it sure as hell is), but you're picking the most stable currencies in the world and comparing them to a crypto asset that is younger than a kindergarden class. Try building the same graphs for 3rd or even 2nd world currencies and observe that they might have even worse volatility. I live in a country whose currencies devaluated in order of trillion times in 20th century if you count…

Sure, but nobody is pretending that the likes of the Venezuelan Bolivar show no more volatility than any of the world's [other] fiat currencies as they breathlessly hype its potential as a global reserve currency.

The thing is that it's not that bad given its age, and it's improving.

Re: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications

#20
I was in many crypto presentations during the 2018 BTC rise. The crypto-anarchists (left and right leaning) were getting their spotlight and laying out their "dream". Basically an updated version of Kropotkin's and Bakunin's work for the blockchain-era.

I really don't get what is the hate with the central banks getting control over the money. Yes they are not appointed by the Government but it does not matter, the moment they gain such power, they will become political.

At least, at allows countries to have complete control over their currency and cut the middleman when it comes to monetary policy. ECB and FED throw all this money into quantitative easing now, and the real economy gets nothing.

BTC as a global reserve is a pipedream, the only global and eternal reserve are big guns. BTC as a means of transaction is a dystopia ready to happen. No country is able to increase BTC supply, hence its a highway to unbelievable inequality, and no monetary policy control. Also, good luck enacting fiscal policy in an economy purely based on untraceable cash.

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