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Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

science.sciencemag.org

11–20 of 106 posts

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#11
If it does become endemic, the question is, what disease would it cause? The deadly Spanish and Hong Kong flu viruses didn't disappear, but rather evolved to cause yet-another seasonal flu after a few seasons.

If the Covid virus does the same and causes yet-another-cold, who cares? Whereas if we're fighting Covid-the-disease for decades to come, well, God help us!

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#12
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the general consensus that the virus would be eradicated if everyone wore a mask? Is it enough?

If that drops r below 1 long enough it would have to right? This seems especially hard to do though, since compliance would need to be nearly universal. You could potentially wipe out influenza and the common cold at the same time too though potentially.

Influenza and coronaviruses have native (animal) reservoirs that keep pumping out new / novel variants, which makes extinction highly unlikely.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#13
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the general consensus that the virus would be eradicated if everyone wore a mask? Is it enough?

If that drops r below 1 long enough it would have to right? This seems especially hard to do though, since compliance would need to be nearly universal. You could potentially wipe out influenza and the common cold at the same time too though potentially.

What about viral reservoirs?

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#14

With so many people ignorant of the science, believing in wild conspiracy theories, being antivaxers and antimakers, of course it's going to become endemic. It remains to be seen if most people will even get vaccinated if/when a safe and effective vaccine becomes available. Even if people got vaccinated once, to actually eradicate COVID-19 they might have to get revaccinated multiple times, possibly over a span of ye…

You can’t just put all the “many” people in the same bucket. I hate this so much now in various circles. I also saw someone else with a similar idea: “why is there a second wave, are so many people anti maskers and non COVID believers?”. No, people had enough of the fumbling and incoherent messages, people are tired and the world is made up not just of developers that can work from home and see this pandemic from their windows while ordering food online, most of the people can’t afford to lose their jobs or stay at home. The whole world adopted this toxic US us vs. they model where everyone who doesn’t agree with you on everything is an ignorant fool and your enemy.

Instead of acting with compassion and trying to convince people of the dangers of this disease, but also providing some sort of perspective of where we are going, we’re just calling everyone who has a different opinion an anti-* and be done with it.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#15
post #6

Of course, no way to control coordinated mask wearing for 7 billion people simultaneously without decades of planning. HIV has killed around 50 million over the past 40 years, and we know how to stop that but it is still endemic and will be for at least a century.

Is the general consensus that the virus would be eradicated if everyone wore a mask? Is it enough?

Like a sibling comment said, only if r0 is small, and not just small, but goes-away-fast small. I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks, and at some point (we don't know when), they'll become less effective.

I'd be pushing for switching guidelines to an N95 minimum, and since there are (still?) shortages, remind people they actually last a while, they're effectively disinfected if you leave them on the table for a few days, and it's generally not worth it to wear a mask to go on a walk.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#16
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the general consensus that the virus would be eradicated if everyone wore a mask? Is it enough?

Like a sibling comment said, only if r0 is small, and not just small, but goes-away-fast small. I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks, and at some point (we don't know when), they'll become less effective. I'd be pushing for switching guidelines to an N95 minimum, and since there are (still?) shortages, remind people they actually last a while, they're effectively disinfected if yo…

> I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks

Citation needed

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#17
post #14

With so many people ignorant of the science, believing in wild conspiracy theories, being antivaxers and antimakers, of course it's going to become endemic. It remains to be seen if most people will even get vaccinated if/when a safe and effective vaccine becomes available. Even if people got vaccinated once, to actually eradicate COVID-19 they might have to get revaccinated multiple times, possibly over a span of ye…

You can’t just put all the “many” people in the same bucket. I hate this so much now in various circles. I also saw someone else with a similar idea: “why is there a second wave, are so many people anti maskers and non COVID believers?”. No, people had enough of the fumbling and incoherent messages, people are tired and the world is made up not just of developers that can work from home and see this pandemic from the…

There's also the issue that while it's deadlier than the flu, it's not that much deadlier, so people are genuinely looking at death rates and making different value judgements on if various restrictions are worth it.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#18
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like a sibling comment said, only if r0 is small, and not just small, but goes-away-fast small. I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks, and at some point (we don't know when), they'll become less effective. I'd be pushing for switching guidelines to an N95 minimum, and since there are (still?) shortages, remind people they actually last a while, they're effectively disinfected if yo…

> I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks Citation needed

On one hand, fair. One the other, when have we seen life not adapt?

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#19
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the general consensus that the virus would be eradicated if everyone wore a mask? Is it enough?

Like a sibling comment said, only if r0 is small, and not just small, but goes-away-fast small. I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks, and at some point (we don't know when), they'll become less effective. I'd be pushing for switching guidelines to an N95 minimum, and since there are (still?) shortages, remind people they actually last a while, they're effectively disinfected if yo…

> I'm not sure why no one's saying this, but the virus is adapting to masks

Based on what? Countries that are supposedly “taking it seriously” experiencing recent rising case counts? This assumes a couple of things:

1. That there exists a place on earth where everyone practices perfect mask usage.

2. That said people are using ideal masks. And no, that cotton mask you carry around in your pocket all day and wash once a week doesn’t count.

I think the problem is people are ascribing magical properties to the kind of masks that most people are using, which are generally cheap, not N95, and reused over and over.

Re: Will SARS-CoV-2 become endemic?

#20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that drops r below 1 long enough it would have to right? This seems especially hard to do though, since compliance would need to be nearly universal. You could potentially wipe out influenza and the common cold at the same time too though potentially.

Influenza and coronaviruses have native (animal) reservoirs that keep pumping out new / novel variants, which makes extinction highly unlikely.

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