Think your language is better than mine? The market says otherwise • Hacker News Board

Re: Think your language is better than mine? The market says otherwise

#11

Post by andrewcurioso » Mon, Mar 28, 2011, 11:29 PM UTC

chc wrote: post #10

andrewcurioso wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Three things: First, thank you for reading. This article was meant entirely to spur discussion so I thank you for taking the time to discuss. Second, I don't think an argument that most people choose based on quality is pertinent to the theory. The theory just states that the market decides. It does not infer than any metric the market uses is inherently better or worse than others. Third, your COBOL example is expli…

> Second, I don't think an argument that most people choose based on quality is pertinent to the theory. The theory just states that the market decides. It states that the market decides what ? The article repeatedly suggests that what the market decides is which language is "good" or "better," which can only be true if people choose based on quality. If the market choice is only loosely correlated with quality, then…

The market decides if a language has any value.

It is not implying in any way that there is a 1:1 between popularity and quality (or any defined relationship for that matter). I think that would be ridiculous.

It is not meant as any means to grade or rank one language against the other. Only to say that a language has some value.

Rereading your comments I do not necessarily agree that the assumption is that market chooses based on quality. The market chooses based on perceived value which definitely takes into account quality but is not based entirely on it.

The implication being is that if there is truly no value or the value is so low that consumers are no longer willing to consume the product. Then the product will disappear or get replaced by a better and cheaper alternative.

In a way, it is simply saying, if someone uses a language then it has value -- at the very least -- to that person.

I guess the underlying message is: do not assume that because something doesn't have value to you that it is not valuable. If it didn't have any value it would (IFF the theory is correct -- I'm not saying it definitely is!) cease to be used.

I am anxiously awaiting your reply. If you have a good one, I might have to concede that the theory is disprove and/or incomplete.

Re: Think your language is better than mine? The market says otherwise

#12

Post by freshhawk » Mon, Mar 28, 2011, 11:33 PM UTC

andrewcurioso wrote: post #9

freshhawk wrote: post #7

Yeah, yeah, the status quo can always be defended with a market analogy. Step one to making this kind of statement: give some evidence that the language ecosystem actually works as a free market. First of all changing languages is almost always a large investment. That removes the "free" from your free market analogy so many of the assumptions you are making are completely unfounded.

That is why it is a theory and I am opening it up to peer review. Otherwise I would have stated it as a fact. Also, "free" as in choice, not "free" as in cost.

Fair enough, in that case it's certainly not a "theory", the correct term would be "hypothesis" or "conjecture".

I understood what you meant by "free" but you seem to be discounting the high cost of making that choice.

You can examine the language ecosystem as a market but if you do you see immediately that it is inherently a lock in market.

Once you choose a language it's very high cost to change languages.

It's also high cost to choose a language that's not already popular, recruiting is more difficult and you will not have as much 3rd party library support.

So you have both "lock in" and large advantages for existing large players. Sure, it's technically still a "free market" because it's not regulated by the state but this kind of market doesn't have the behavior you are assuming.

What evidence do you have that these kinds of markets optimize for "better" languages?

Re: Think your language is better than mine? The market says otherwise

#13

Post by freshhawk » Mon, Mar 28, 2011, 11:35 PM UTC

andrewcurioso wrote: post #11

chc wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Second, I don't think an argument that most people choose based on quality is pertinent to the theory. The theory just states that the market decides. It states that the market decides what ? The article repeatedly suggests that what the market decides is which language is "good" or "better," which can only be true if people choose based on quality. If the market choice is only loosely correlated with quality, then…

The market decides if a language has any value. It is not implying in any way that there is a 1:1 between popularity and quality (or any defined relationship for that matter). I think that would be ridiculous. It is not meant as any means to grade or rank one language against the other. Only to say that a language has some value. Rereading your comments I do not necessarily agree that the assumption is that market ch…

So your headline should have been "Think your language is more popular than mine: The market says otherwise".

No one would have argued with that.

Re: Think your language is better than mine? The market says otherwise

#14

Post by andrewcurioso » Mon, Mar 28, 2011, 11:44 PM UTC

freshhawk wrote: post #13

andrewcurioso wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market decides if a language has any value. It is not implying in any way that there is a 1:1 between popularity and quality (or any defined relationship for that matter). I think that would be ridiculous. It is not meant as any means to grade or rank one language against the other. Only to say that a language has some value. Rereading your comments I do not necessarily agree that the assumption is that market ch…

So your headline should have been "Think your language is more popular than mine: The market says otherwise". No one would have argued with that.

I agree. The title is misleading. I'll have to be more careful on future HN posts. Although, if someone else posted it I would have little control over that.

I don't think your alternative isn't quite right either.

Perhaps, I should have just titled it something like: "Ask HN: Review my theory, The Free-Market Theory of Programming Languages"

Re: Think your language is better than mine? The market says otherwise

#15

Post by vorg » Tue, Mar 29, 2011, 12:03 AM UTC

Another factor influencing language popularity is to have some control over the language popularity metrics. E.g. Groovy lead developer Jochen Theodorou got involved with changing the TIOBE algorithms in January. In February, Groovy jumped from 49th to 25th place in one month.

Re: Think your language is better than mine? The market says otherwise

#16

Post by andrewcurioso » Tue, Mar 29, 2011, 12:21 AM UTC

freshhawk wrote: post #12

andrewcurioso wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is why it is a theory and I am opening it up to peer review. Otherwise I would have stated it as a fact. Also, "free" as in choice, not "free" as in cost.

Fair enough, in that case it's certainly not a "theory", the correct term would be "hypothesis" or "conjecture". I understood what you meant by "free" but you seem to be discounting the high cost of making that choice. You can examine the language ecosystem as a market but if you do you see immediately that it is inherently a lock in market. Once you choose a language it's very high cost to change languages. It's als…

My biggest mistake: using the word "good" What I should of said is "has value"

I have since conceded that point and removed the word "good" (which is subjective) from the post.

Also, the only evidence I have is observation. Which is why I posted the idea. To get good constructive input from people like you!

You make some good points. It is an expensive proposition to switch languages, which is why I excluded that explicitly in the post.

It is also expensive to train people. So that alone may disprove the theory. I'm not sure yet.

On a side note, as far as I know, being based on observation only does not preclude the use of the word theory. It is technically correct (at least according to the dictionary definition of theory). Although, I agree hypothesis may be better.

Re: Think your language is better than mine? The market says otherwise

#17

Post by chc » Tue, Mar 29, 2011, 12:32 AM UTC

andrewcurioso wrote: post #11

chc wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Second, I don't think an argument that most people choose based on quality is pertinent to the theory. The theory just states that the market decides. It states that the market decides what ? The article repeatedly suggests that what the market decides is which language is "good" or "better," which can only be true if people choose based on quality. If the market choice is only loosely correlated with quality, then…

The market decides if a language has any value. It is not implying in any way that there is a 1:1 between popularity and quality (or any defined relationship for that matter). I think that would be ridiculous. It is not meant as any means to grade or rank one language against the other. Only to say that a language has some value. Rereading your comments I do not necessarily agree that the assumption is that market ch…

I can't argue with the claim "If somebody is using something, they must place a nonzero value on it." But it seems a lot weaker than what the article says, and it's not even related to the Twitter conversation you linked, which was about the relative qualities of programming languages.

This restated thesis could be 100% true and it still wouldn't mean that the dominant programming language isn't the worst one ever invented.

And a language with nonzero value could still be effectively worthless — if Language A is worth 1 Foo, Language B is worth 10000 Foo and Language C is worth 15000 Foo, then choosing Language A means you lose more (relative to the others) than you gain.

Re: Think your language is better than mine? The market says otherwise

#18

Post by freshhawk » Tue, Mar 29, 2011, 1:10 AM UTC

andrewcurioso wrote: post #16

freshhawk wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough, in that case it's certainly not a "theory", the correct term would be "hypothesis" or "conjecture". I understood what you meant by "free" but you seem to be discounting the high cost of making that choice. You can examine the language ecosystem as a market but if you do you see immediately that it is inherently a lock in market. Once you choose a language it's very high cost to change languages. It's als…

My biggest mistake: using the word "good" What I should of said is "has value" I have since conceded that point and removed the word "good" (which is subjective) from the post. Also, the only evidence I have is observation. Which is why I posted the idea. To get good constructive input from people like you! You make some good points. It is an expensive proposition to switch languages, which is why I excluded that exp…

You need to define "has value" right away though, because defining "value" as "whatever the market measures" is tautological and just plain useless. "PHP has value because people find that PHP has value" is not contributing anything new.

It's also the go to "moving the goalpost" logical fallacy used by free market ideological cranks who you don't want to be compared to.

Re: Think your language is better than mine? The market says otherwise

#19

Post by andrewcurioso » Tue, Mar 29, 2011, 1:18 AM UTC

freshhawk wrote: post #18

andrewcurioso wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My biggest mistake: using the word "good" What I should of said is "has value" I have since conceded that point and removed the word "good" (which is subjective) from the post. Also, the only evidence I have is observation. Which is why I posted the idea. To get good constructive input from people like you! You make some good points. It is an expensive proposition to switch languages, which is why I excluded that exp…

You need to define "has value" right away though, because defining "value" as "whatever the market measures" is tautological and just plain useless. "PHP has value because people find that PHP has value" is not contributing anything new. It's also the go to "moving the goalpost" logical fallacy used by free market ideological cranks who you don't want to be compared to.

Agreed. I don't want to ask you to complete my thought, but how would you define value in a way that makes sense in that context? Or is it hopeless?

Re: Think your language is better than mine? The market says otherwise

#20

Post by freshhawk » Wed, Mar 30, 2011, 10:14 PM UTC

andrewcurioso wrote: post #19

freshhawk wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to define "has value" right away though, because defining "value" as "whatever the market measures" is tautological and just plain useless. "PHP has value because people find that PHP has value" is not contributing anything new. It's also the go to "moving the goalpost" logical fallacy used by free market ideological cranks who you don't want to be compared to.

Agreed. I don't want to ask you to complete my thought, but how would you define value in a way that makes sense in that context? Or is it hopeless?

Well now you're trying to figure out what it is that the market optimizes for.

In my experience it has little to do with language quality and mostly to do with reputation and momentum. Whatever that company/team used before they will likely use again.

I'll talk about things in the web space since that's what I know best, things will be different in each market.

If it's a blue sky exercise or they decided they need something new then it's mostly based on reputation, the less popular the language chosen the more blame taken by the chooser in the case of failure. In other words, no one ever got in trouble for choosing Java, PHP or C#.

Trying to define value in a way that covers even only the big players is tough.

Java and C# are chosen because they are big (library support, support materials) and have been around for a while. They are considered trustworthy.

PHP is chosen because there are tons of cheap semi-competent programmers who know PHP. It was marketed and packaged for beginners at the perfect time and that worked fantastically.

Ruby/Rails is chosen because of marketing (the engineers might be fans, but the business guys say OK and the HR people can find programmers because of the marketing). A lot of ex-php-ers who discovered how bad PHP is as a language when they learned Ruby as their second modern language.

This is just in a small piece of the language ecosystem that I know about. Other areas of programming (other markets i suppose) are completely different but I suppose that momentum, marketing and trained workforce are factors in all of them.

I think this is too messy a problem to ever arrive at a good definition.