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Global temperatures likely to hit at least 1C warming for next five years

theguardian.com

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Re: Global temperatures likely to hit at least 1C warming for next five years

#11

Post by genericone »

lazyjones wrote: post #7

Doesn't sound dramatic to me, especially considering the process for calculating these "global" temperatures (stations near growing urban heat islands etc.). I'd be more interested in long-time temperature increases in specific remote areas. One of the oldest continuous temperature records on a mountain in Germany shows less than 0.7C since 1800: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological... https:/…

Now that you mention it, I'd be interested in some sort of map of where all these weather monitoring stations are, with bolder colors indicating stations that have been in longer continuous operation.

Re: Global temperatures likely to hit at least 1C warming for next five years

#12

Post by aaron-santos »

lazyjones wrote: post #7

Doesn't sound dramatic to me, especially considering the process for calculating these "global" temperatures (stations near growing urban heat islands etc.). I'd be more interested in long-time temperature increases in specific remote areas. One of the oldest continuous temperature records on a mountain in Germany shows less than 0.7C since 1800: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological... https:/…

Can you reference the point in this research where the process should have taken this into account but didn't? Looking for specific points in primary sources if you don't mind.

Re: Global temperatures likely to hit at least 1C warming for next five years

#13

Post by Symbiote »

WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #8

I truly thought we were about to exceed the speed of light before I realized C != c.

For some incomprehensible reason, the Guardian's style guide specifically says _not_ to use the degree symbol.

Perhaps it's an attempt to maintain their reputation for sloppy editing.

https://www.theguardian.com/guardian-observer-style-guide-c (under "Celsius")

Re: Global temperatures likely to hit at least 1C warming for next five years

#14

Post by Semaphor »

battery423 wrote: post #2

In germany we have a drought right now. I never assumed that we in germany get water issues. Now farmers said things like 'i have never seen so little water at this time of year in the 30 years im a farmer'. I don't have the feeling we are recognizing the elephant in the room. My personal take on this is to buy a farm, buy water reserve tanks, have a little garden and trying to become independend. Which is not a bad…

what part has a drought? because here in the north, it has been raining for two weeks. I'm up for a weather exchange...

Re: Global temperatures likely to hit at least 1C warming for next five years

#15

Post by aaron-santos »

bzb3 wrote: post #3
battery423 wrote: post #2

In germany we have a drought right now. I never assumed that we in germany get water issues. Now farmers said things like 'i have never seen so little water at this time of year in the 30 years im a farmer'. I don't have the feeling we are recognizing the elephant in the room. My personal take on this is to buy a farm, buy water reserve tanks, have a little garden and trying to become independend. Which is not a bad…

30 years is not a good enough sample. In fact it's pretty bad.

Can you point out a power analysis that quantifies this?

Re: Global temperatures likely to hit at least 1C warming for next five years

#16

Post by lazyjones »

frabbit wrote: post #9
lazyjones wrote: post #7

Doesn't sound dramatic to me, especially considering the process for calculating these "global" temperatures (stations near growing urban heat islands etc.). I'd be more interested in long-time temperature increases in specific remote areas. One of the oldest continuous temperature records on a mountain in Germany shows less than 0.7C since 1800: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological... https:/…

It seems very unlikely that this report would fall into the well-known problem of not accounting for urban heat islands: https://www.skepticalscience.com/urban-heat-island-effect.ht... Are you specifically clamining that the authors ignored this ?

You can only avoid this effect by not using urban stations, claiming the effect is small doesn't solve the problem.

I am specifically claiming that there is no known global temperature dataset that is frequently used in such alarming studies and contains no stations affected by the UHI effect. Since the linked article contains no references or links to sources, I cannot be more specific.

Re: Global temperatures likely to hit at least 1C warming for next five years

#18

Post by 23throwaway23 »

genericone wrote: post #11
lazyjones wrote: post #7

Doesn't sound dramatic to me, especially considering the process for calculating these "global" temperatures (stations near growing urban heat islands etc.). I'd be more interested in long-time temperature increases in specific remote areas. One of the oldest continuous temperature records on a mountain in Germany shows less than 0.7C since 1800: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological... https:/…

Now that you mention it, I'd be interested in some sort of map of where all these weather monitoring stations are, with bolder colors indicating stations that have been in longer continuous operation.

This is how it's typically done: https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-do-scientists-meas...

There are thousands of measurement stations spread across the globe - on land, in the ocean and in the air.

Four independent datasets are generated by different groups: Scientists use four major datasets to study global temperature. The UK Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit jointly produce HadCRUT4 .

In the US, the GISTEMP series comes via the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS), while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) creates the MLOST record. The Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA) produces a fourth dataset.

Re: Global temperatures likely to hit at least 1C warming for next five years

#19

Post by 23throwaway23 »

lazyjones wrote: post #7

Doesn't sound dramatic to me, especially considering the process for calculating these "global" temperatures (stations near growing urban heat islands etc.). I'd be more interested in long-time temperature increases in specific remote areas. One of the oldest continuous temperature records on a mountain in Germany shows less than 0.7C since 1800: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hohenpeißenberg_Meteorological... https:/…

This is incorrect (see other comment for methodology). Thousands of stations on land, air and sea are used.

Beyond that, this is a standard disinformation talking point. It's been debunked here: https://www.skepticalscience.com/urban-heat-island-effect.ht...

But it's easy to find more sources.

Re: Global temperatures likely to hit at least 1C warming for next five years

#20

Post by 23throwaway23 »

makerofspoons wrote: post #10

We seem to be trending right along with the worst case emissions scenario: https://sites.uci.edu/energyobserver/files/2018/11/4BDC35FE-... Edit: There is also credible evidence we've been underestimating climate sensitivity for years: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01484-5

Given that IPCC and other world bodies suggest we need to be reducing emissions by 7.6% every year for the next decade (starting this year). We're doing the almost exact opposite.

The US and China are increasing hostilities and are locked in a downward spiral of increased military spending (and associated emissions).

Most of the economic elite, while paying lip service is in utter denial about the direness of the situation.

With a few exceptions (New Zealand), every developed and developing society is prioritizing the economy and economic development over the preservation of a viable human future.

We're bordering on insanity.

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